[Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest recorded sea surface temperature

[Austin Bowden-Kerby]

Fascinating Michael!

Thanks for the important corrections and clarifications about past drivers
of AMPC collapse.   This is a topic that I hope can be developed to be made
more accessible by the experts and modelers, so that it is more easily
understood by educators and the scientific community.  All sorts of
internet garbage is now being generated on Youtube to hype
the recent paper.   It is important that we all understand the facts, and
understand that this is not synonymous with total Gulf Stream collapse as
is being widely portrayed.  Many attribute the present marine heat wave in
Florida and the Caribbean entirely to El Nino, but this does not seem to be
the case.  Could what we are seeing be related to a buildup of warm
water due to a slowdown of ocean circulation and export of warm Caribbean
water via the Gulf Stream?

When the 13K Y-D event happened,  CO2 levels were much lower than today, so
I wonder how that might alter the situation?   Also, as the trigger for the
present spike in global mean temperatures has been attributed to the
delayed impacts of the Tonga Volcanic eruption- with the gigatons of water
vapor injected into the stratosphere and mesosphere, perhaps we have an
entirely new set of drivers operating?  I am hoping that it is possible to
get a slowdown without a collapse, enough to cool the permafrost areas and
prevent massive methane release, just enough to regain more normal
conditions.  The U Maine global mean sea surface temperature data continues
to worsen.  The developing situation is downright scary.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

Regards,

Austin


Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands


https://www.corals4conservation.org
Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change adaptation
strategies:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>








On Tue, Aug 1, 2023 at 4:38 AM Risk, Michael <riskmj at mcmaster.ca> wrote:

> Austin, if I may-a few additions to your AMOC spread. It won't make the
> situation any better. There is no good news.
>
> As far as I and my co-authors understand  it, the last collapse of the
> AMOC initiated the Younger Dryas Event. This was 13,000 years and change
> ago. The driver wasn't melting of Greenland, but rather the draining of
> Glacial Lake Agassiz, which covered much of Ontario and Manitoba. There is
> some question whether melting of Arctic Ocean ice, together with input from
> Greenland, can provide the same push...but the process seems underway.
>
> There are global impacts of AMOC collapse, but the hammer falls mostly on
> Western Europe (which freezes) and equatorial Africa, which goes from bad
> to worse. The human impacts of such a switch seem...horrific, beginning
> with the collapse of European civilization and famines in Africa.
>
> Our paper (Smith et al, 1997 Nature 386: 818) suggests the turnaround, the
> last time, took less than 5 years.
>
> I have always said (well, sometimes said) that, when societies recognize
> the full impact of climate change, they will have far bigger fish to fry
> than the protection of coral reefs. Some sort of archive held for
> (hoped-for) better times may be all we can hope for.
>
> Mike
> ------------------------------
> *From:* Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf of
> Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> *Sent:* Sunday, July 30, 2023 4:47 PM
> *To:* Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
> *Cc:* coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> *Subject:* Re: [Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest
> recorded sea surface temperature
>
> Caution: External email.
>
>
> Thanks Doug,
>
> The day of restoration and planting corals randomly on the reef appears to
> be over.  The focus must now turn to keeping each coral species alive and
> genetically intact, as we approach the dark heart of the climate crisis.
> Yes, some coral planting will continue, but with major strategic changes.
>
> As far as shading nurseries, this is to ensure that our collections of
> genotypes of rare or declining corals do not get wiped out.  It does not
> offer a solution for the wider reef, but it makes the creation of gene bank
> nurseries all the more important, as they are compact enough to enable us
> to shade hundreds of genotypes through heat stress events like this one.
> And if the local reefs have a strong thermal gradient- a goldilocks
> situation of hot nearshore reefs, warm water lagoonal reefs, and cooler
> offshore reefs, then people have the option of creating nurseries composed
> of heat-adapted corals selected from the hotter reefs and translocated to
> the cooler nursery sites.  But in the present situation, those nurseries
> might also be shaded as insurance?  If there are replicates of the gene
> bank corals outplanted on the reefs, this time of stress represents a test
> to see which corals are the most bleaching resistant.  If collection of
> corals is done during this time of stress, those corals must go under heavy
> shade.  And post bleaching, for any resistant corals which do survive, the
> threat presented by fish and invertebrate predators will be immense, as the
> predator to prey ratios become skewed.
>
> To add to your list of local extinctions, Christmas Atoll, Kiribati lost
> most of its coral species in the 2015-16 mass beaching. The entire lagoon
> in June 2016 was composed of km after km of dead corals with acres of dead
> and standing staghorn thickets.  I found a single colony of foliose
> Montipora and one lobate Porites colony. That is where I had my 'AH-HA'
> moment, and lamented that if I had only gotten their the year before and
> collected bits of as many species as I could from the lagoon hot-pocket,
> and then moved them out to the pass area, that they would have very likely
> survived the mass die-off event. There was no temperature logger in the
> lagoon, but I feel certain that with such high mortality of a heat-adapted
> coral population, that the waters of Kiritimati Lagoon approached what
> Florida Bay is now experiencing.
>
> We have recorded short spikes of 36-37C in our most stressed nearshore
> sites during low tide, and temperatures of 32-35C are fairly common for the
> shallows on the nearshore reefs during mid day low tide conditions, and a
> surprising diversity of corals lives in these hot areas.   We have sampled
> these corals and have moved them to a cooler genebank nursery on the middle
> barrier reef, as a precaution against whatever thermal stress may be coming
> in the future. We have over the past two years trimmed from these genebank
> corals, and now have patches of heat adapted corals out on the even cooler
> outer barrier reef, where we hope they will thrive and spread their
> resilience over time.  So it is not all doom and gloom- but the real test
> may soon be coming!
>
> While it may be too late for Florida, what might save some Caribbean reefs
> now will be the formation of hurricanes- hopefully near-miss ones!  This is
> what the 50 Reefs Initiative got wrong, rather than being mostly
> destructive, cyclones cool off a huge swath of water.  We have been saved
> from bleaching multiple times here in Fiji by cyclones passing as far as
> 500km from our reefs. Just this year it happened again- four times.
> Unfortunately those storms caused destruction in Vanuatu and massive floods
> in New Zealand. An early hurricane season in the Caribbean could make a big
> difference to the ultimate outcome of the present crisis.
>
> I operate based on an assumption that humanity will either get our act
> together, control emissions, and implement everything required for the
> planet to survive and all species remaining once again to flourish.
> Perhaps it is more likely that someone will push the button and kaboom:
> humanity will no longer be a major factor?  Or perhaps Mother Nature
> Herself has something up her sleeve, and she will rise up to put us in our
> place and to save herself?  Could the Tonga mega eruption already have done
> that by causing atmospheric changes which have accelerated the impacts of
> climate change that will hasten an AMOC collapse?
>
> My earlier post asked everyone to look up from their busy lives and visit
> the University of Maine Climate Change Institute website, because a
> fundamental change in the heat budget of the planet has apparently
> occurred, starting in late March. What is unfolding is so fundamentally off
> scale that it is shocking, and it can not be attributed to El Nino, which
> if anything will only make it worse.
> https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/   The mean daily ocean
> temperature graph, the mean daily atmospheric temperature graph, and the
> mean daily Antarctic sea ice extent graph are all in new territory.  It
> looks like the impacts of climate change have been fast-forwarded by 20
> years.  This has me wondering if the AMOC collapse has already begun?
>
> July is the hottest month on record in 120,000 years.  This is easier for
> people to understand than the possibility that something fundamental has
> changed in the global heat budget.
>
> https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-record-climate/index.html
>
>
> So- what about this predicted AMOC collapse?  How will it impact coral
> reefs?  Will this be the final nail in the coffin for coral reefs?  A lot
> of internet chatter is happening based on the recent article, which showed
> an imminent collapse approaching.
> https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w  The last time AMOC
> collapsed was apparently 12,000 years ago, and due to the massive release
> of meltwater from Greenland.  I have done my best to find out what impacts
> this will have on the planet, and on coral reefs.  It looks like
> the impacts will not be instant, and will take years to decades. The most
> striking prediction that all models agree on is that the northern
> hemisphere will cool considerably, while the southern hemisphere will
> warm.  The arctic will re-freeze, while Antarctica will increase its rate
> of melt.  So I am now thinking that just as hurricanes are the planet's way
> of dissipating an excessive buildup of ocean heat, AMOC shutdown might be
> the planet's way of preventing massive methane release leading to runaway
> global warming?
>
> As educators we need to get our facts right, and climate change won't cause
> a collapse of the Gulf Stream, but it will change its path:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnVWUIhQ8dE
>
> This film highlights several excellent scientific papers on the impact of
> AMOC collapse. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2ETr6X1lOk&t=628s
>
> I got this from Paul Beckwith, a climate change educator at the University
> of Ottawa, and am still chasing down the sources: "The key chain of events
> is as follows…. 1) Global warming hole south of Greenland and warming water
> off East coast of North America, isotopic analyses of sediments, physical
> monitoring of ocean column, and other proxies all show that the AMOC has
> slowed significantly, and ocean water currents comprising AMOC are the
> slowest in the last 1000 years. 2) Nonlinear physics analyses shows that
> probability of AMOC shutdown between 2025 and 2095 is 95%, with highest
> likelihood by around 2050. 3) AMOC shutdown would basically cool northern
> hemisphere and warm southern hemisphere. 4) High Arctic north of Canadian
> Archipelago, Greenland, and Scandinavian countries would cool as much as
> 8C, Western Europe would cool 2 to 3 C, and eastern Canada by 1 to 2C.
> Southern hemisphere by Latin America and western African coast would warm
> by 2 to 3 C. 5) With ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) shifting from
> just north of equator to just south of equator, precipitation would
> increase up to 100% around 15 degrees S latitude and decrease this amount
> at 15 degrees N latitude. 6) Dynamic sea level change would be large.
> Between Antarctica and southern tips of South America and Australia, sea
> level would drop a foot, Gulf of Mexico to Mediterranean would increase a
> foot, high Arctic would rise as much as 3 to 9 feet."    (Highly
> speculative, and of course this would take several generations to unfold,
> but for sure massive changes are in store.)
>
> My big question now is what will the present thermal spike do to coral
> reefs here when summer arrives in December?  I think that we need to heed
> this warning and start making preparations now, or we too might miss our
> chance. Rare and cool-adapted coral collections and gene banking within
> land-based facilities, hot water adapted coral collections and gene banking
> within cooler water nurseries (warm to cool water translocations),
> preparations for shading existing nurseries.   We can not wait any
> longer....  We are racing time.
>
> Austin
>
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
> Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change adaptation
> strategies:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> <
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, Jul 30, 2023 at 4:20 AM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> >         The reports say that 100% of the corals at Sombrero Reef in the
> > Florida Keys have died of bleaching from the hot water.  In the past,
> some
> > of the worst mass bleaching events have killed up to 90% of the corals at
> > various locations, but I don't remember any reports of 100% of some
> > reef killed.  Have any killed 100% before?  Two species of fire coral in
> > the Eastern Pacific were driven to regional extinction by mass coral
> > bleaching events in the past (Glynn).  One coral at Chagos (*Diploastrea
> > heliopora*) was driven to local extinction in the Chagos archipelago by
> > mass coral bleaching and another coral (*Ctenella chagius*) was driven
> very
> > near to global extinction (Sheppard et al).  Pillar coral in the western
> > Atlantic is teetering on the brink of global extinction, mostly from
> > disease, but could bleaching push it over the edge?  El Nino is currently
> > just getting started.  By the time it gets going closer to full blast, it
> > will be the southern hemisphere's turn to have summer, and it could be
> > worse than what is happening now in Florida, couldn't it???
> >        So, is this the beginning of the end of coral reefs as we know
> them,
> > which will be replaced by algae gardens with fewer fish and many other
> > organisms missing??  Will reefs with 100% coral death from high
> > temperatures become the rule instead of the exception?  How many corals
> > will go functionally extinct or even globally extinct?  How would we
> > recover from that??
> >        I notice reports that some restoration projects are quickly moving
> > the corals in their gardens into aquaria that can be kept below bleaching
> > temperatures.  That's smart.  That suggests that project people are not
> > confident that their corals would survive these current conditions.  So
> all
> > this is going to happen more frequently in the future, and the
> temperatures
> > will get even higher, because of global warming, won't it??  I'm reminded
> > of some institutions in temperate climates that have palm trees in large
> > pots.  They have a device that lets them wheel them inside buildings when
> > the temperatures get too cold for them.  Then move them back out when it
> > warms up.  Are we going to move nursery corals indoors in every heat
> wave,
> > then back out after?  That's better than letting them cook to death.
> Maybe
> > we could move the natural corals on the reefs indoors too.  No, there are
> > too many of them, not possible, plus you'd have to break every one off
> the
> > reef, that would take way too long.  Not possible.
> >        I think all this means that Austin was exactly right, move as many
> > resilient corals as you can into water that won't get so hot, that would
> > greatly increase their survival chances.  That is, if you have any such
> > place.
> >        So if heat waves like this kill near 100% of the natural corals
> many
> > places, over and over again, can restoration recover the natural reefs as
> > fast as global warming can kill them??  Hundreds of thousands of square
> > miles of coral reef in the world?  And those corals that are planted out
> to
> > restore reefs, in the next heat wave get killed, then the corals in the
> > aquaria are put out into nurseries and when large enough are planted on
> the
> > reef.  And then another heat wave kills them and the whole thing happens
> > all over again, over and over again.  Is all that effort and expense
> worth
> > it?  Do you see some other future for natural reefs??  I don't, much as I
> > would love to.  Coral restoration may become like the ancient Greek
> legend
> > of Sysiphus, who has to push a large rock up a mountain, and then it
> rolls
> > down, and he has to do it again for eternity.
> >        And I wonder about those "super corals" that are being selected
> for
> > the ability to withstand higher than normal temperatures.  Are they able
> to
> > survive in the current temperatures that Florida has???  I now envision a
> > lengthy race between increasing water temperatures on reefs in heat
> waves,
> > and efforts to breed ever greater ability to withstand heat, trying to
> > breed coral tolerance faster than the temperatures of heat waves
> increase.
> > Who is going to win that race?  Do we want to bet the survival of coral
> > reefs on the outcome?  (do we have any choice???)
> >         One scientist in one of the stories said that we need to prepare
> > for the future.  Yes.  And just how are we going to do that??  Take a
> hand
> > fan out over a reef and sit in a boat waving the fan over the water to
> cool
> > it?  Snorkel on the surface over the coral to shade them?  There are much
> > better ways to cool reefs, like piping up cold, deep water.  I don't know
> > anyone who is trying that.  Wouldn't be a trivial thing to try to
> > do, certainly would be impossible for more than just tiny patches of high
> > value reef.  Austin says that shades can be put over coral nurseries to
> > shade them and he is surely right and it is a good idea.  But what about
> > the natural corals, the hundreds of thousands of square kilometers and
> > miles of reefs?  Can we shade or cool them?  No way currently I know of.
> >         Bottom line, I don't see a feasible way of saving corals short of
> > quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or very close to
> it.
> > And we, as a species, are a LONG way from doing that.  We haven't even
> > BEGUN to slow the rate of increase in CO2 in the atmosphere yet.
> >         And it looks like we don't have any time left, the coral reef
> > armageddon appears to have begun.  Kiss your favorite reef goodbye??
> >
> > Cheers, Doug
> >
> > On Tue, Jul 25, 2023 at 7:17 PM Douglas Fenner <
> > douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > Hottest sea surface temperature recorded anywhere in the world, ever.
> > > 101.1F
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-just-had-the-hottest-recorded-ocean-temperature-heres-what-that-means-for-the-environment-215110797.html
> > >
> > > 100% coral mortality at Sombrero Reef in the Keys.  Also most of the
> > > corals in the Looe Key nursery have died.
> > >
> > >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/hot-tub-water-temperatures-off-183657140.html
> > >
> > > https://www.yahoo.com/news/water-tip-florida-hits-hot-000913172.html
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-ocean-temperatures-rise-above-213944171.html
> > >
> > >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/extreme-heat-wipes-coral-reef-195403237.html
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/101-1-degrees-water-temperatures-214600885.html
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/ocean-temperatures-around-south-florida-223041666.html
> > >
> > > https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-lab-races-save-203112888.html
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-everglades-water-temperatures-reach-170400166.html
> > >
> > > Mass coral bleaching predicted:
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/hot-florida-sea-surface-temperatures-coral-bleaching-event
> > >
> > > Cheers, Doug
> > >
> > > --
> > > Douglas Fenner
> > > Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> > > NOAA Fisheries Service
> > > Pacific Islands Regional Office
> > > Honolulu
> > > and:
> > > Coral Reef Consulting
> > > PO Box 997390
> > > Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
> > >
> > > One recent study estimates over 61,000 people died from heat during
> > > Europe's record-breaking summer last year.
> > >
> > >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-breaking-heat-bakes-us-014459083.html
> > >
> > > 1 million Florida buildings will be overrun by sea-level rise, new
> study
> > > shows, at a cost of $261-624 BILLION
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-million-florida-buildings-overrun-091203340.html
> > >
> > > Scientists size up human predatory footprint
> > > Humans are the ultimate predators, trapping, hunting, or otherwise
> > > exploiting 15,000 species of vertebrates—300 times more species than
> > > jaguars and 113 times more than great white sharks.
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.science.org/content/article/news-glance-muscular-dystrophy-therapy-lab-grown-chicken-and-humans-toll-wildlife
> > >
> > >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> _______________________________________________
> Coral-List mailing list
> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>