[Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest recorded sea surface temperature
Risk, Michael
riskmj at mcmaster.ca
Mon Jul 31 16:38:18 UTC 2023
Austin, if I may-a few additions to your AMOC spread. It won't make the
situation any better. There is no good news.
As far as I and my co-authors understand it, the last collapse of the
AMOC initiated the Younger Dryas Event. This was 13,000 years and
change ago. The driver wasn't melting of Greenland, but rather the
draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz, which covered much of Ontario and
Manitoba. There is some question whether melting of Arctic Ocean ice,
together with input from Greenland, can provide the same push...but the
process seems underway.
There are global impacts of AMOC collapse, but the hammer falls mostly
on Western Europe (which freezes) and equatorial Africa, which goes
from bad to worse. The human impacts of such a switch seem...horrific,
beginning with the collapse of European civilization and famines in
Africa.
Our paper (Smith et al, 1997 Nature 386: 818) suggests the turnaround,
the last time, took less than 5 years.
I have always said (well, sometimes said) that, when societies
recognize the full impact of climate change, they will have far bigger
fish to fry than the protection of coral reefs. Some sort of archive
held for (hoped-for) better times may be all we can hope for.
Mike
__________________________________________________________________
From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf of
Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Sent: Sunday, July 30, 2023 4:47 PM
To: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
Cc: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Florida now has one spot with the highest
recorded sea surface temperature
Caution: External email.
Thanks Doug,
The day of restoration and planting corals randomly on the reef appears
to
be over. The focus must now turn to keeping each coral species alive
and
genetically intact, as we approach the dark heart of the climate
crisis.
Yes, some coral planting will continue, but with major strategic
changes.
As far as shading nurseries, this is to ensure that our collections of
genotypes of rare or declining corals do not get wiped out. It does
not
offer a solution for the wider reef, but it makes the creation of gene
bank
nurseries all the more important, as they are compact enough to enable
us
to shade hundreds of genotypes through heat stress events like this
one.
And if the local reefs have a strong thermal gradient- a goldilocks
situation of hot nearshore reefs, warm water lagoonal reefs, and cooler
offshore reefs, then people have the option of creating nurseries
composed
of heat-adapted corals selected from the hotter reefs and translocated
to
the cooler nursery sites. But in the present situation, those
nurseries
might also be shaded as insurance? If there are replicates of the gene
bank corals outplanted on the reefs, this time of stress represents a
test
to see which corals are the most bleaching resistant. If collection of
corals is done during this time of stress, those corals must go under
heavy
shade. And post bleaching, for any resistant corals which do survive,
the
threat presented by fish and invertebrate predators will be immense, as
the
predator to prey ratios become skewed.
To add to your list of local extinctions, Christmas Atoll, Kiribati
lost
most of its coral species in the 2015-16 mass beaching. The entire
lagoon
in June 2016 was composed of km after km of dead corals with acres of
dead
and standing staghorn thickets. I found a single colony of foliose
Montipora and one lobate Porites colony. That is where I had my 'AH-HA'
moment, and lamented that if I had only gotten their the year before
and
collected bits of as many species as I could from the lagoon
hot-pocket,
and then moved them out to the pass area, that they would have very
likely
survived the mass die-off event. There was no temperature logger in the
lagoon, but I feel certain that with such high mortality of a
heat-adapted
coral population, that the waters of Kiritimati Lagoon approached what
Florida Bay is now experiencing.
We have recorded short spikes of 36-37C in our most stressed nearshore
sites during low tide, and temperatures of 32-35C are fairly common for
the
shallows on the nearshore reefs during mid day low tide conditions, and
a
surprising diversity of corals lives in these hot areas. We have
sampled
these corals and have moved them to a cooler genebank nursery on the
middle
barrier reef, as a precaution against whatever thermal stress may be
coming
in the future. We have over the past two years trimmed from these
genebank
corals, and now have patches of heat adapted corals out on the even
cooler
outer barrier reef, where we hope they will thrive and spread their
resilience over time. So it is not all doom and gloom- but the real
test
may soon be coming!
While it may be too late for Florida, what might save some Caribbean
reefs
now will be the formation of hurricanes- hopefully near-miss ones!
This is
what the 50 Reefs Initiative got wrong, rather than being mostly
destructive, cyclones cool off a huge swath of water. We have been
saved
from bleaching multiple times here in Fiji by cyclones passing as far
as
500km from our reefs. Just this year it happened again- four times.
Unfortunately those storms caused destruction in Vanuatu and massive
floods
in New Zealand. An early hurricane season in the Caribbean could make a
big
difference to the ultimate outcome of the present crisis.
I operate based on an assumption that humanity will either get our act
together, control emissions, and implement everything required for the
planet to survive and all species remaining once again to flourish.
Perhaps it is more likely that someone will push the button and kaboom:
humanity will no longer be a major factor? Or perhaps Mother Nature
Herself has something up her sleeve, and she will rise up to put us in
our
place and to save herself? Could the Tonga mega eruption already have
done
that by causing atmospheric changes which have accelerated the impacts
of
climate change that will hasten an AMOC collapse?
My earlier post asked everyone to look up from their busy lives and
visit
the University of Maine Climate Change Institute website, because a
fundamental change in the heat budget of the planet has apparently
occurred, starting in late March. What is unfolding is so fundamentally
off
scale that it is shocking, and it can not be attributed to El Nino,
which
if anything will only make it worse.
[1]https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ The mean daily ocean
temperature graph, the mean daily atmospheric temperature graph, and
the
mean daily Antarctic sea ice extent graph are all in new territory. It
looks like the impacts of climate change have been fast-forwarded by 20
years. This has me wondering if the AMOC collapse has already begun?
July is the hottest month on record in 120,000 years. This is easier
for
people to understand than the possibility that something fundamental
has
changed in the global heat budget.
[2]https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-record-c
limate/index.html
So- what about this predicted AMOC collapse? How will it impact coral
reefs? Will this be the final nail in the coffin for coral reefs? A
lot
of internet chatter is happening based on the recent article, which
showed
an imminent collapse approaching.
[3]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w The last time
AMOC
collapsed was apparently 12,000 years ago, and due to the massive
release
of meltwater from Greenland. I have done my best to find out what
impacts
this will have on the planet, and on coral reefs. It looks like
the impacts will not be instant, and will take years to decades. The
most
striking prediction that all models agree on is that the northern
hemisphere will cool considerably, while the southern hemisphere will
warm. The arctic will re-freeze, while Antarctica will increase its
rate
of melt. So I am now thinking that just as hurricanes are the planet's
way
of dissipating an excessive buildup of ocean heat, AMOC shutdown might
be
the planet's way of preventing massive methane release leading to
runaway
global warming?
As educators we need to get our facts right, and climate change won't
cause
a collapse of the Gulf Stream, but it will change its path:
[4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnVWUIhQ8dE
This film highlights several excellent scientific papers on the impact
of
AMOC collapse. [5]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2ETr6X1lOk&t=628s
I got this from Paul Beckwith, a climate change educator at the
University
of Ottawa, and am still chasing down the sources: "The key chain of
events
is as follows.... 1) Global warming hole south of Greenland and warming
water
off East coast of North America, isotopic analyses of sediments,
physical
monitoring of ocean column, and other proxies all show that the AMOC
has
slowed significantly, and ocean water currents comprising AMOC are the
slowest in the last 1000 years. 2) Nonlinear physics analyses shows
that
probability of AMOC shutdown between 2025 and 2095 is 95%, with highest
likelihood by around 2050. 3) AMOC shutdown would basically cool
northern
hemisphere and warm southern hemisphere. 4) High Arctic north of
Canadian
Archipelago, Greenland, and Scandinavian countries would cool as much
as
8C, Western Europe would cool 2 to 3 C, and eastern Canada by 1 to 2C.
Southern hemisphere by Latin America and western African coast would
warm
by 2 to 3 C. 5) With ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) shifting
from
just north of equator to just south of equator, precipitation would
increase up to 100% around 15 degrees S latitude and decrease this
amount
at 15 degrees N latitude. 6) Dynamic sea level change would be large.
Between Antarctica and southern tips of South America and Australia,
sea
level would drop a foot, Gulf of Mexico to Mediterranean would increase
a
foot, high Arctic would rise as much as 3 to 9 feet." (Highly
speculative, and of course this would take several generations to
unfold,
but for sure massive changes are in store.)
My big question now is what will the present thermal spike do to coral
reefs here when summer arrives in December? I think that we need to
heed
this warning and start making preparations now, or we too might miss
our
chance. Rare and cool-adapted coral collections and gene banking within
land-based facilities, hot water adapted coral collections and gene
banking
within cooler water nurseries (warm to cool water translocations),
preparations for shading existing nurseries. We can not wait any
longer.... We are racing time.
Austin
Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
[6]https://www.corals4conservation.org
Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
strategies:
[7]https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change
adaptation
strategies: [8]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
[9]https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-
coral-bleaching/
<[10]https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massiv
e-coral-bleaching/>
On Sun, Jul 30, 2023 at 4:20AM Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> The reports say that 100% of the corals at Sombrero Reef in
the
> Florida Keys have died of bleaching from the hot water. In the past,
some
> of the worst mass bleaching events have killed up to 90% of the
corals at
> various locations, but I don't remember any reports of 100% of some
> reef killed. Have any killed 100% before? Two species of fire coral
in
> the Eastern Pacific were driven to regional extinction by mass coral
> bleaching events in the past (Glynn). One coral at Chagos
(*Diploastrea
> heliopora*) was driven to local extinction in the Chagos archipelago
by
> mass coral bleaching and another coral (*Ctenella chagius*) was
driven very
> near to global extinction (Sheppard et al). Pillar coral in the
western
> Atlantic is teetering on the brink of global extinction, mostly from
> disease, but could bleaching push it over the edge? El Nino is
currently
> just getting started. By the time it gets going closer to full
blast, it
> will be the southern hemisphere's turn to have summer, and it could
be
> worse than what is happening now in Florida, couldn't it???
> So, is this the beginning of the end of coral reefs as we know
them,
> which will be replaced by algae gardens with fewer fish and many
other
> organisms missing?? Will reefs with 100% coral death from high
> temperatures become the rule instead of the exception? How many
corals
> will go functionally extinct or even globally extinct? How would we
> recover from that??
> I notice reports that some restoration projects are quickly
moving
> the corals in their gardens into aquaria that can be kept below
bleaching
> temperatures. That's smart. That suggests that project people are
not
> confident that their corals would survive these current conditions.
So all
> this is going to happen more frequently in the future, and the
temperatures
> will get even higher, because of global warming, won't it?? I'm
reminded
> of some institutions in temperate climates that have palm trees in
large
> pots. They have a device that lets them wheel them inside buildings
when
> the temperatures get too cold for them. Then move them back out when
it
> warms up. Are we going to move nursery corals indoors in every heat
wave,
> then back out after? That's better than letting them cook to death.
Maybe
> we could move the natural corals on the reefs indoors too. No, there
are
> too many of them, not possible, plus you'd have to break every one
off the
> reef, that would take way too long. Not possible.
> I think all this means that Austin was exactly right, move as
many
> resilient corals as you can into water that won't get so hot, that
would
> greatly increase their survival chances. That is, if you have any
such
> place.
> So if heat waves like this kill near 100% of the natural
corals many
> places, over and over again, can restoration recover the natural
reefs as
> fast as global warming can kill them?? Hundreds of thousands of
square
> miles of coral reef in the world? And those corals that are planted
out to
> restore reefs, in the next heat wave get killed, then the corals in
the
> aquaria are put out into nurseries and when large enough are planted
on the
> reef. And then another heat wave kills them and the whole thing
happens
> all over again, over and over again. Is all that effort and expense
worth
> it? Do you see some other future for natural reefs?? I don't, much
as I
> would love to. Coral restoration may become like the ancient Greek
legend
> of Sysiphus, who has to push a large rock up a mountain, and then it
rolls
> down, and he has to do it again for eternity.
> And I wonder about those "super corals" that are being
selected for
> the ability to withstand higher than normal temperatures. Are they
able to
> survive in the current temperatures that Florida has??? I now
envision a
> lengthy race between increasing water temperatures on reefs in heat
waves,
> and efforts to breed ever greater ability to withstand heat, trying
to
> breed coral tolerance faster than the temperatures of heat waves
increase.
> Who is going to win that race? Do we want to bet the survival of
coral
> reefs on the outcome? (do we have any choice???)
> One scientist in one of the stories said that we need to
prepare
> for the future. Yes. And just how are we going to do that?? Take a
hand
> fan out over a reef and sit in a boat waving the fan over the water
to cool
> it? Snorkel on the surface over the coral to shade them? There are
much
> better ways to cool reefs, like piping up cold, deep water. I don't
know
> anyone who is trying that. Wouldn't be a trivial thing to try to
> do, certainly would be impossible for more than just tiny patches of
high
> value reef. Austin says that shades can be put over coral nurseries
to
> shade them and he is surely right and it is a good idea. But what
about
> the natural corals, the hundreds of thousands of square kilometers
and
> miles of reefs? Can we shade or cool them? No way currently I know
of.
> Bottom line, I don't see a feasible way of saving corals
short of
> quickly reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero or very close
to it.
> And we, as a species, are a LONG way from doing that. We haven't
even
> BEGUN to slow the rate of increase in CO2 in the atmosphere yet.
> And it looks like we don't have any time left, the coral reef
> armageddon appears to have begun. Kiss your favorite reef goodbye??
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
> On Tue, Jul 25, 2023 at 7:17PM Douglas Fenner <
> douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Hottest sea surface temperature recorded anywhere in the world,
ever.
> > 101.1F
> >
> >
> >
>
[11]https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-just-had-the-hottest-recorded-oc
ean-temperature-heres-what-that-means-for-the-environment-215110797.htm
l
> >
> > 100% coral mortality at Sombrero Reef in the Keys. Also most of
the
> > corals in the Looe Key nursery have died.
> >
> >
[12]https://www.yahoo.com/news/hot-tub-water-temperatures-off-183657140
.html
> >
> >
[13]https://www.yahoo.com/news/water-tip-florida-hits-hot-000913172.htm
l
> >
> >
> >
>
[14]https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-ocean-temperatures-rise-above-21
3944171.html
> >
> >
[15]https://www.yahoo.com/news/extreme-heat-wipes-coral-reef-195403237.
html
> >
> >
>
[16]https://www.yahoo.com/news/101-1-degrees-water-temperatures-2146008
85.html
> >
> >
> >
>
[17]https://www.yahoo.com/news/ocean-temperatures-around-south-florida-
223041666.html
> >
> >
[18]https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-lab-races-save-203112888.ht
ml
> >
> >
> >
>
[19]https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-everglades-water-temperatures-re
ach-170400166.html
> >
> > Mass coral bleaching predicted:
> >
> >
> >
>
[20]https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/hot-florida-sea-surface-
temperatures-coral-bleaching-event
> >
> > Cheers, Doug
> >
> > --
> > Douglas Fenner
> > Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> > NOAA Fisheries Service
> > Pacific Islands Regional Office
> > Honolulu
> > and:
> > Coral Reef Consulting
> > PO Box 997390
> > Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298 USA
> >
> > One recent study estimates over 61,000 people died from heat during
> > Europe's record-breaking summer last year.
> >
> >
[21]https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-breaking-heat-bakes-us-014459083.
html
> >
> > 1 million Florida buildings will be overrun by sea-level rise, new
study
> > shows, at a cost of $261-624 BILLION
> >
> >
> >
>
[22]https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-million-florida-buildings-overrun-0912
03340.html
> >
> > Scientists size up human predatory footprint
> > Humans are the ultimate predators, trapping, hunting, or otherwise
> > exploiting 15,000 species of vertebrates--300 times more species
than
> > jaguars and 113 times more than great white sharks.
> >
> >
>
[23]https://www.science.org/content/article/news-glance-muscular-dystro
phy-therapy-lab-grown-chicken-and-humans-toll-wildlife
> >
> >
> _______________________________________________
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References
1. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
2. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/world/july-hottest-month-record-climate/index.html
3. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w
4. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tnVWUIhQ8dE
5. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2ETr6X1lOk&t=628s
6. https://www.corals4conservation.org/
7. https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
8. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
9. https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
10. https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
11. https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-just-had-the-hottest-recorded-ocean-temperature-heres-what-that-means-for-the-environment-215110797.html
12. https://www.yahoo.com/news/hot-tub-water-temperatures-off-183657140.html
13. https://www.yahoo.com/news/water-tip-florida-hits-hot-000913172.html
14. https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-ocean-temperatures-rise-above-213944171.html
15. https://www.yahoo.com/news/extreme-heat-wipes-coral-reef-195403237.html
16. https://www.yahoo.com/news/101-1-degrees-water-temperatures-214600885.html
17. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ocean-temperatures-around-south-florida-223041666.html
18. https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-keys-lab-races-save-203112888.html
19. https://www.yahoo.com/news/florida-everglades-water-temperatures-reach-170400166.html
20. https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/hot-florida-sea-surface-temperatures-coral-bleaching-event
21. https://www.yahoo.com/news/record-breaking-heat-bakes-us-014459083.html
22. https://www.yahoo.com/news/1-million-florida-buildings-overrun-091203340.html
23. https://www.science.org/content/article/news-glance-muscular-dystrophy-therapy-lab-grown-chicken-and-humans-toll-wildlife
24. https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
25. https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
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