[Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human population trends
Douglas Fenner
douglasfennertassi at gmail.com
Sun May 14 03:47:25 UTC 2023
A little more balance:
abstract:
coral reef fisheries glass half empty and half full. Big fish are
overfished, the majority of fish species are too small to be fished so
can't be overfished.
American Samoa subsidies may be the largest in the Pacific, but it is
for programs every US state and territory gets by law, and money is not
just handed out, it is paid for people to do the work of those programs
that improve people's lives. The territory population is 45,000 and the
USA has 330 MILLION people. The subsidies are a minute portion of the US
federal budget. Most Americans have no idea that the place exists at all,
and indeed it is about that tiny.
Coral reef fisheries could be seen as a glass half empty, and a
glass half full. First, overfishing of at least some fish species on coral
reefs is very widespread, only places which have no people and are very far
from people do not have some coral reef fish species overfished. And the
Maldives don't have overfishing of reef fish, where people eat tuna, not
reef fish. On the other hand, most coral reef fish species are too small
to fish. The reef fish families that have the most species are gobies,
blennies, damselfish, and some others like cardinalfish. The Indo-Pacific
has about 500 species of gobies, over 100 species of blennies (Lieske and
Myers, 2001) They are all small. Published estimates are that fisheries
take 200-300 species of reef fish. The Philippines and eastern Indonesia
have something closer to 3000 species of reef fish. So reef fisheries
probably take about 10% of all reef fish species there. So about 90% of
all reef fish species are not fished there. Surely most of the catch is in
a group smaller than 200 species, and probably some others get taken on
rare occasions. Fish species that are not fished cannot possibly be
overfished. These two seemingly contradictory things can be resolved by
realizing that each species can have a different amount of fishing pressure
and different status, and in general, fisheries pressure the largest
species the most and the smallest the least. The ecosystem has finite
resources and can't support many large fish, but can support vastly more
tiny fish. Also, the incentives are for larger fish to be taken, they can
feed more people and/or be sold for more money. More fishing pressure on
fewer individual fish yields greater depletion. There are very few species
of the largest fish on coral reefs. The most massive species in both
the Caribbean and the Indo-Pacific are groupers, Goliath grouper in the
Caribbean gets up to 455 kg, Giant Grouper in the Indo-Pacific up to 300
kg. Humphead wrasse in the Indo-Pacific can weigh up to 190 kg, bumphead
parrots up to 46 Kg. (data from Lieske and Myers). Caribbean reef shark up
to 70 kg, Caribbean nurse shark 109 kg, Indo-Pacific Gray reef shark 34 kg,
Whitetip reef shark 18 kg, Caribbean rainbow parrotfish 20 kg (data from
fishbase). Many of the smallest reef fish weigh just a few grams. These
mass differences are ENORMOUS.
A little more context about Pacific island societies. American
Samoa is pretty unusual in the Pacific. It is indeed heavily subsidized by
the US, and that is why it is richer than all non-US areas in the Pacific
other than New Caledonia (though poorer than every US state and every other
US territory). Although it is subsidized, what it receives is the various
and many programs the US federal government has, which all US states and
territories receive, and which is based on their population. A large
population state receives more than a small population state or territory
like American Samoa. The big difference is that all states and other
territories have real economies, but American Samoa lacks resources. It
has a total of 10 square miles of nearly flat land. You can't sell ocean
water or basalt lava rock which are its main natural resources. American
Samoa is tiny and very isolated, it is 5000 miles from the USA, which is a
disadvantage in a modern economy. Locally based fishing vessels catch
about $20 million worth of tuna a year, but that is tiny. The biggest
business is the tuna cannery, which exists there only because of a much
lower minimum wage than the US has, and that it doesn't have to pay import
duty on tuna no matter what flag the ship flies and can send the canned
tuna to the US and no import duty is paid. And residents don't have to pay
US income tax. All done to support the local economy.
I'm not an economist, but having people in places that have little
or no resources and having to subsidize them is not the economically most
efficient way to set things up. At least in modern economics. By law, the
US federal government must make all of its programs available to all states
and territories, and do it by population. Also, people here do not have to
pay US federal income tax, that is a major subsidy (the Am Samoa income tax
is actually higher than the US federal income tax). People in American
Samoa are actually moving now to the states faster than they are being
born, for a net loss of about 5000 people per 10 years, the Census reports
over the last 20 years. There are more Samoans in Carson, California than
in American Samoa, and many in Hawaii and other parts of the US. The
territory now has about 45,000 people. That compares to 330 million in the
USA, and a little over 500,000 in the US state with the least population,
Wyoming. So the USA has nearly 10,000 times as many people as American
Samoa. Supporting American Samoa is a very, very tiny item in the USA
federal budget. I suspect that American Samoa has the most subsidized
economy in the Pacific, with the most subsidy compared to the size of the
real economy. Mind you, the money is not just handed out. It is for all
kinds of programs to improve people's lives. Most of the money goes to pay
people to work on the programs, like the health care system. road repair,
electrical system repair and communications system repair, schools, etc.
Some goes for buying or repairing equipment. But money is not just handed
out. American Samoa is not eligible for international aid because it is
owned by the US, a developed nation and a donor nation, not a recipient
nation, and American Samoa is its responsibility.
Mind you, saying that American Samoa has very few resources is based
on modern concepts of resources. People originally settled on Pacific
islands, 3000 or more years ago, perhaps because there was no one living on
the islands, and so people who were landless from other areas thought it
was good for them. If they didn't, they would have gotten right back in
their voyaging canoes and went back. But they didn't. They even stayed on
atolls, and atolls are much harder to live on, and have many fewer
resources, than high islands. No surface running water. Sand, essentially
no soil, very hard to grow food crops. Absolutely tiny land areas. No
high places to escape cyclones (hurricanes). (the only fresh water is down
in the sand, floating on top of salt water, and is not very pure)
People who leave little islands usually go to developed countries
where there are more jobs, which pay better, and there are more services,
including better educational opportunities for their children's future.
People who stay probably love where they live and are comfortable with
things the way they are, and like many people around the world, they like
where they grew up, including the culture, and are not eager to go
somewhere with a different culture. I'm guessing at this, there is plenty
of room for different ideas.
Cheers, Doug
Lieske, E and Myers, R. 2002. Coral Reef Fishes. Princeton Pocket
Guides, 400 pp
Fishbase www.fishbase.org
On Sat, May 6, 2023 at 7:36 PM Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
wrote:
> Alina,
> Sorry it took so long to reply, I was too busy. This reply is
> too long.
>
> Abstract
> Human overpopulation is one of the drivers of environmental
> problems, obviously, but it is not the only driver, consumption and
> technology are too.
> I have never contended that fisheries are not a problem for
> coral reefs. Quite the opposite, obviously they are, almost everyone
> agrees that overfishing is one of the major threats to coral reefs.
> Overfishing is one of the most pervasive effects of humans on coral reefs
> worldwide, it happens everywhere there are people, with very few
> exceptions. It also happens in places with no people but within reach of
> fishing boats.
> Overfishing not only happens in low income countries due to
> subsistence and artisanal commercial fisheries, but also in developed
> countries, often from recreational fishing though subsistence and
> artisanal fishing can happen in developed countries as well (like in
> Hawaii).
> I contend that modern coral reef fishing in ALL countries now is
> heavily dependent on modern technology, such as metal and fiberglass boats,
> engines, gasoline, metal tools, nylon, etc. Traditional societies fished
> coral reefs without any of that technology for thousands of years. But no
> one uses only the traditional materials and none of the modern materials,
> because the modern materials require vastly less work, and are vastly more
> powerful at catching fish. Modern technology is absolutely essential to
> produce overfishing on coral reefs, it made all the difference. I contend
> that modern technology is primarily responsible for overfishing on coral
> reefs around the world, without it, it would be very hard to overfish reefs.
> The people near coral reefs are NOT people who are trying to get
> away from modern society, like people in cabins in Alaska. They are people
> who own the land and whose ancestors have lived there for thousands of
> years. They are not rich and not welfare queens. They have a right to
> live there, though increasingly people there are choosing voluntarily to
> move to developed areas, for more jobs and services, which is a pattern not
> only around coral reefs but all over the world, called "urbanization" which
> has been happening for quite some time.
> I'm not saying that population plays no role, obviously it
> does. Double the population and likely you will double the impact, halve
> it and you may have half the impact.
>
> I do not know of anyone who disputes that overpopulation of
> humans is causing environmental problems (but surely there is a nut
> somewhere who does). OBVIOUSLY, it is. That is NOT my point. My point is
> that it is NOT the ONLY problem. A point I've made several times, which I
> am waiting for you to acknowledge. As I've said before, consumption and
> technology are the other major contributing factors, and surely there are
> loads of complications, details, and other, more minor factors. As far as
> I can tell so far, all you want to talk about is overpopulation.
> Please quote me where I said that there are NO reef fisheries
> problems. I can't remember either saying that or implying it. (If you
> read my paper on "challenges for coral reef fisheries" you could come away
> with the view that coral reef fisheries are MASSES of PROBLEMS, many appear
> nearly intractable). I intended to say that population is not ALWAYS the
> driving factor for overfishing. If you can find a place where I said
> something that was untrue, quote me, and I'll gladly apologize and
> correct it. Perhaps it seems to you that anyone who suggests that
> overpopulation isn't always the number one cause of environmental problems
> is saying that overpopulation is not a problem. I contend those are quite
> different assertions. I've acknowledged multiple times that overpopulation
> is a major problem for the natural world. But I don't see you willing to
> acknowledge that anything else is much of a problem for coral reefs. Hence
> I have tried to point to a few examples of such. I will point to another
> one below. Kindly do not interpret it as saying that population is NOT a
> problem. Meantime, when are you going to acknowledge that there are other
> drivers of environmental problems besides population??
> I recommend that if you don't believe me and my sources, read David
> Obura's recent post carefully and take it on board. Or feel free to argue
> with him too. It isn't just me. As you know I got the idea of three main
> drivers from Paul Ehrlich, one of the leading people arguing that
> population is a problem.
> Meantime, I do NOT contend that all the world's coral reef
> fisheries are in great condition. I never said that, and I don't believe
> it. I think the evidence indicates that fishing is the most widely
> prevalent local impact of humans on coral reef ecosystems on the planet at
> this point. Or at the very least, tied with mass coral bleaching. The
> evidence indicates that the large coral reef fish species are overfished
> on the entire planet everywhere there are people that fish them. I include
> that last qualification to make an exception for a place like the Maldives,
> where the people there eat pelagic tuna, not coral reef fish, or so I am
> told. Result being lots of big fish are still there, which divers love,
> which is one of that country's biggest industries, dive tourism. Divers go
> nuts over big fish. The citizens are all crammed onto one tiny little
> island, high human density. No damage to reef fish. Population not
> hurting reef fish. Which does NOT mean that population does not hurt reef
> fish anywhere else and the reef fish are all fine. Quite the contrary.
> So, what is the primary driver of overfishing of coral reefs????
> Obviously, overpopulation, right!! Too many people who need food, rapid
> growth of populations in poor countries, too many babies there, too many
> hungry people. Obviously, a problem of overpopulated poor countries. Not
> a problem in rich, developed, white countries. You say you've worked for
> 60 years in Florida, part of the world's largest-economy country. No? So
> I haven't, but I've read enough to have read that each year in Florida
> there is a 2 day open recreational fishing period for lobster, before the
> opening of the commercial season. And about 50,000 divers descend on
> Florida and remove 80% or more of the lobsters in 2 days. Is that a
> fishing impact? Are those 50,000 divers hordes of poor people who are
> having 12 children each, from some low-income country? Or are they
> middle-class, mostly white (probably mostly men) people from one of the
> world's biggest economies, who don't need lobsters for food, and are doing
> it for "recreation" also known as "fun." Not necessary for survival.
> Let me suggest that technology has played a key, indeed an
> essential, role in the overfishing of the world's coral reefs. Consider
> for a minute the methods and gear used for coral reef fishing in
> traditional societies before contact with modern, developed, technological
> societies. Correct me if I have this wrong, please, anyone, I would much
> prefer to have this right than be saying something untrue. Fishing hooks
> in the Pacific were carved from seashells, which are hard enough to carve
> (there are some in display cases that were in some agencies in
> American Samoa). Fishing line was made by twisting coconut fibers
> together. Small dugout canoes for fishing were made from single tree
> trunks, by carving and burning the inside out. The carving part had to be
> done with an "adze", which has some similarity to a handaxe, but has a
> narrow, crosswise blade, made from basalt rock, not steel. Basalt is
> plentiful on volcanic islands but absent from atolls. Coral rocks are WAY
> too soft to use. Basalt can be ground down to a sharper edge than coral
> rock, and will last longer. Basalt pieces for adzes had to be ground down
> by hand against a large basalt rock. In American Samoa, there are places
> where they did it, with many, rounded, smooth, bowl-shaped depressions
> ground into the solid basalt volcanic rock by generations of people,
> sharpening their adzes (sounds like a lot of hard work to me!). Atolls
> have no basalt or other hard rock, NONE. Only soft coral skeletons and
> seashells. Those basalt adzes were so useful, as crude with dull edges as
> we now think of them from our luxury experiences with hard, sharp, metal
> blades of axes and knives, that people carried them for very long distances
> around the Pacific, trading them, and risking their lives to go thousands
> of miles in little sailing canoes, to get them. Basalt adzes are known
> from many atoll archipelagos, some came from the Samoas, some in the
> Tuamotus came from Hawaii, it is possible now with isotopes to figure out
> where the basalt came from. If you only have coral rocks and seashells,
> basalt to make adzes becomes very valuable. The dugouts had to have
> outriggers, all parts were attached with cords, they had no nails. There
> are NO metals in the Pacific (except New Caledonia, which has nickel, but I
> have not read or heard that the traditional people made tools from it, it
> was not elemental metal and has to be smelted to get metal, I presume).
> The fishing canoes were powered by paddles and sails, the sails made from
> the long leaves of local plants. Nets and traps had to be made of organic
> materials, Samoans on out islands still fashion some small traps, I'm not
> sure which plant the materials come from, perhaps pandanus leaves that are
> long and thin, which they make mats from and made clothes from before
> outsiders came. Or palm fronds. They had spears, made entirely from wood,
> including the point. No masks, fins, snorkels, scuba tanks, waterproof
> flashlights, steel hooks, nylon lines, nylon nets, aluminum or fiberglass
> boats, boat engines, gasoline, etc etc etc.
> Why am I going on and on endlessly about this, wasting everyone's
> time??? To remind you of the technological change that has happened with
> coral reef fisheries. It is anything but trivial.
> I strongly suspect that there are very few people, if any, on the
> entire planet, who continue to use all the old gear their ancestors used to
> fish on coral reefs, and use none of the new gear brought by outsiders.
> I've read that in the 3 little atolls called "Tokelau" north of American
> Samoa, which is said to be the most traditional Polynesian society on earth
> (and where they have no landing strip for planes and not even a boat dock),
> they use aluminum boats, gasoline-powered outboard motors, steel fish
> hooks, nylon lines, nylon nets, etc. LIke fishermen on reefs everywhere.
> They have every right to (so long as they can buy the gear).
> So the gear costs them money, they are not rolling in money, the
> traditional gear would not cost them money, why do they use the modern
> gear??? Because it is VASTLY less work, and it is far more effective at
> catching fish. There's the connection with the coral reef fish. Without
> this modern technology, fishing is so much work and catches so few fish, it
> would be very hard to overfish reefs. With it, it is easy.
> I contend that the primary driver of overfishing on coral reefs
> is technology. Without that modern technology, it would be hard to
> overfish the reef fish. There was a paper, Wing and Wing, 2001, which
> reported declines in fish sizes in shell middens in the Caribbean over a
> couple of thousand years before Columbus "discovered" the Americas. Then
> today I found a more recent paper, which reviews the literature and says
> the evidence as a whole doesn't support that. References below.
> Let me state clearly,. I am NOT saying that population has no
> effect on coral reef fish. Obviously it does. If there are 10 people
> fishing a reef, the impact will be less than 10,000 people fishing the same
> reef using the same methods. Obviously. But that does NOT imply that
> population is the only driver, or even the primary driver.
> I propose that without the technology, people might well have
> starved without being able to fully deplete coral reef fish stocks. Which
> doesn't mean they would have NO effects, but the modern fishing technology
> which is used for coral reef fishing now is a critical component for
> overfishing the world's coral reefs. I suspect that maybe one implication
> might be that trying to dial back some of the technology might be a good
> thing to consider for reducing fishing pressure. American Samoa is one of
> the few places that has banned scuba spearfishing (which was done in 2000,
> 3 years before I got there, I was not involved and can take no credit),
> which when combined with waterproof flashlights is extremely powerful at
> killing fish. Killing animals while they are asleep is so easy, it is
> "shooting ducks in a barrel" as the old saying goes. Another powerful
> technology is the waterproof flashlight. There are lots in stores
> in American Samoa and I suspect all over the Pacific. You can use them to
> spearfish on snorkel at night with similar effects. I can tell where they
> do it the most by piles of dead D cell batteries on the shore. In the
> Caribbean, the big technology is fish traps. Catches herbivores as well as
> piscivores, and can keep on catching as the fisherman sleeps and killing
> long after the fisherman loses the trap.
> I contend this is not a tiny thing, it is not just one little
> island, I contend this is world-wide on coral reefs.
> I suspect that any place that banned the use of ALL modern
> technology for coral reef fishing (metal and fiber glass boats, motors,
> gasoline, all metal items, nylon, etc) would immediately end all coral reef
> overfishing. But it is a very blunt instrument, that would also end ALL
> coral reef fishing. Nobody would be willing to use only the traditional
> materials and methods that were used before outsiders came. And no
> jurisdiction will do this, because it would surely cause rioting in the
> streets, because it would stop all reef fishing of all kinds. But it
> illustrates how important the modern technology is for overfishing of reefs
> around the world.
> I completely agree with your comments about people choosing to
> live off the grid and going to remote islands to do so. But your comment
> is misdirected. You must never have been to any of these places with
> traditional societies. In Polynesia, their ancestors have lived there for
> up to 3000 years. They're all speaking English, are fully literate, I know
> one lady who's daughter got into Stanford, many are driving late
> model cars, have large flat screen TVs, and have smart phones. And they
> have traditional ceremonies and dances and communal property and a chief
> system, and elect their government and buy much of their food in stores and
> work in jobs and earn money, and so on. And many have chosen to stay on
> their land, but now people are choosing to leave slightly faster than they
> are being born (and familes are well down in size, though probably not
> quite down to replacement yet. On a worldwide basis, the total human
> population on Pacific islands is tiny, and their children contribute a
> miniscule amount to world population.). In Australia, traditional people
> have lived there for at least 35,000 years and maybe 65,000 years. How
> long have your ancestors lived in North Carolina? Mine have probably lived
> in the US around 200 years but maybe less, I don't know, and none of them
> lived exactly where I have lived. So you are saying people who have
> traditional land ownership because their ancestors have lived there for
> 3000 years or more have no right to live there??? On what basis? Oh, so
> if they choose to live where they own the land, then even though they
> represent tiny numbers of people, and they don't have any legal right to go
> to any developed country, we should have hard hearts and tell them to go
> jump?? Very kind, considerate, and if they hold the future of their reefs
> in their hand and would like help improving their reefs, we should tell
> them to shut up and go away??? (no, you didn't say that, but I'm asking
> what you think, how far you want to go with your line of reasoning?) A few
> tiny crumbs off the table of giant rich countries are too much for tiny
> remote communities that have so little and have so much of the world's
> coral reefs? If coral reefs are important, isn't it in our own best
> interests to be helpful?? And NO,. they are NOT welfare queens, they are
> NOT rich. American Samoa is the poorest place in the entire US system,
> poorer than every US state and other US territory. And every independent
> island state in the Pacific (other than New Caledonia) is poorer than
> American Samoa (and has coral reefs, several have LOTS of reef area). Most
> have very little resources of any kind. So we should force them off the
> land they live on?? Have you read the thoughts people have (which are
> largely justified) about the mistreatment of the people on Chagos when they
> were forced off the tiny islands there (which they did not own, but had
> lived on for generations and were abandoned by the slave owners when
> coconuts were no longer profitable)? Do we really want to do that to a lot
> of other people?? I suggest not.
> I have certainly heard stories of people going to Alaska to try
> living in a cabin by themselves. I agree, they chose to do that, and we
> have no obligation to subsidize them. That is wildly different from people
> whose ancestors have lived on tropical islands for thousands of years, and
> own the land in every sense of the word. And the numbers of people who do
> that in Alaska are surely less than minute.
> Now, how about my point that meg-cities (indeed ALL cities) cannot
> support themselves without importing food from farming areas, and farmers
> can't get the tools and fertilizer and seeds they need (and the other kinds
> of food, and TVs, smart phones, cars, and you name it) without people in
> other areas in other companies, etc? Does that make everybody on the
> planet unsustainable? Certainly as unsustainable as the people you're
> criticizing. None of the instruments you sell depend on suppliers from
> anywhere else??? Aren't we all dependent on other people now?? "No man is
> an island" they say.
>
> Actually, I think an argument can be made that technology was
> absolutely critical to produce global warming and climate change, and thus
> mass coral bleaching, which many people think is the greatest single threat
> to coral reefs. Technology made possible the industrial revolution, which
> is when human burning of fossil fuels and emissions of CO2 possible and
> expanded them greatly. It took technology to invent the steam engine, the
> internal combustion machine (as in cars and trucks), and the jet engine.
> It took technology to mine coal and drill for oil and gas, and still takes
> quite sophisticated technology to drill and frack and all that. Not to
> mention transport huge quantities of coal, petroleum, and gas long
> distances. Without technology, we'd still be sitting around camp fires
> burning a few pieces of wood that were sourced sustainably from forests.
> No tech, no human-caused global warming.
> Technology produced the process that uses natural gas to produce
> fertilizer, which made possible big increases in food production. It has
> been called "the fuse that lit the population bomb." It produced the food
> that allowed populations to grow (instead of starving to death) Nutrients
> on reefs from humans, I'm thinking that mostly comes from agriculture, from
> fertilizer put on it, much produced by that same process. Other nutrients
> on reefs come from sewage, good part of that from food made possible by
> that fertilizer process. Sediment on reefs mostly comes from agriculture,
> logging, roads, and construction. Lots of machines making the agriculture
> and construction possible, burning fossil fuels, all courtesy of technology.
>
> Again, I'm NOT saying that population has NO role. Obviously it
> does. It tends to multiply any other problem, and make it a lot worse.
>
> Wing, S. R. and Wing, E. S. 2001. Prehistoric fisheries in the Caribbean. *Coral
> Reefs* 20:
>
> 1-8.
>
> Craig, P., Green, A., and Tuilagi, F. 2008. Subsistence harvest of coral
> reef resources in
>
> the outer islands of American Samoa: modern, historic, and
> prehistoric catches.
>
> *Fisheries Research* 89: 230-240.
>
>
> Baisre, J. R. 2010. Setting a baseline for Caribbean fisheries. *The
> Journal of Island and Coastal*
>
> * Archaeology* 5: 120-147.
>
>
> Cinner, J. E., McClanahan, T. R., Graham, N. A. J., Pratchett, M. S.,
> Wilson, S. K. and
>
> Raina, J.-B. 2009. Gear-based fisheries management as a
> potential adaptive
>
> response to climate change and coral mortality. *Journal of
> Applied Ecology*, 46:
>
> 724-732.
>
>
> Fenner, D. 2012. Challenges for managing fisheries on diverse coral reefs.
> *Diversity*
>
> 4(1): 105-160.
>
>
> If anybody has more recent or comprehensive or important references on
> this subject, please post the references on coral-list for the edification
> of all of us. Thank you!
>
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
> On Mon, Apr 3, 2023 at 12:34 AM Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Great to know that overfishing is not a problem on the islands you
>> listed. Earlier messages were that reef are overfished. I am sure that
>> this varies from island to island. And nothing you wrote stating that
>> what's happening on the islands is any different from what is happening
>> elsewhere, population wise, is inconsistent with what I have written.
>> Overpopulation is a global phenomenon. Recent trend is for concentration
>> of people in large urban areas less that 50 miles from the coasts which is
>> why there is so much problem with destruction of wetlands, mangroves and
>> estuaries. As well as destruction in past and present of wilderness to
>> build housing and grow food for all these people. My comments about the
>> Pacific Islands were specifically in response to posts by others that were
>> bringing attention to the plight of Pacific islanders and reef conditions
>> in these locations. From your analysis it sounds like people and coral
>> reefs are in perfect harmony with each other. What a great situation if
>> true. But I get an undertone that these people should have a higher
>> standard of living rhan they now do and that rich countries should be
>> helping them achieve that. This is contrary to my feeling that if people
>> want to live in remote places, off-grid so to speak (in a cabin in the
>> woods ), that is amazing and should be commended. But then don’t complain
>> about how hard life is and that others should be providing you with more
>> comfort.
>>
>>
>>
>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>> CISME Instruments LLC
>>
>>
>>
>> -------- Original message --------
>> From: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>> Date: 4/3/23 12:55 AM (GMT-05:00)
>> To: Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
>> Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human population
>> trends
>>
>> By the way, the growth of populations that you describe for islands in
>> the Pacific also describes population trends for many, many places,
>> including almost every country including developed countries and
>> predominantly white countries and the big cities in almost every country,
>> including the U.S. and Europe. Almost all of those have vastly larger
>> populations than the Pacific islands, which of course have tiny land
>> areas. The huge populations of large countries are far more threat to the
>> world’s living natural ecology than the tiny populations of Island
>> countries.
>>
>> The Marshall Islands are composed of 29 atolls and 7 low islands. Of the
>> 42,594 people in the country in 2021, 23,225 lives in Majuro, the capital,
>> in a small part of the atoll ring which has the most island land area. The
>> next largest population is on Ebeye Island which is on Kwajalein Atoll next
>> to the island that has the U.S. military base which employs some of the
>> people. 9,925 people live there. 10 of the atolls and islands are
>> uninhabited. Inhabited atolls have populations that range from 75 to 1423
>> with an average of 468 people per atoll (
>> https://www.citypopulation.de/en/marshall/). From what I saw on several
>> of those atolls, most have at the most one tiny store with very little in
>> it and likely little of their food is imported, they surely have very
>> little monetary income and live subsitence lives. Trying to grow crops on
>> atoll islands is difficult because the islands are made of sand, with very
>> little organic soil in the sand and rainwater immediately sinks into the
>> sand. These people are not living a life of luxury. Impacts to the fish
>> populations are relatively low (Martin et al, 2017).
>>
>> In American Samoa, increasing economic support by the U.S. federal
>> government has meant that people have more money to buy imported package
>> food, instead of fishing, and has actually led to a slight decrease of
>> fishing pressure on the coral reefs as population has been increasing
>> (until 2010). The economic support the territory gets consists of the same
>> programs all the US states and territories get. The difference is that all
>> the states have real economies and American Samoa has almost no resources.
>> Increasing population isn’t always correlated with increasing environmental
>> impacts.
>>
>> Martin et al. 2017. Subsistence harvesting by a small community does
>>
>> not substantially compromise coral reef fish assemblages. ICES
>> Journal of Marine
>>
>> Science 74: 2191-2200.
>> https://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/127523/7/beger_subsitence_harvesting.pdf
>>
>> On Fri, Mar 31, 2023 at 1:32 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>
>>> But the quest for gold has been around since time inmemorial. King
>>> Midas, the Incas, the Spanish colonización of the Americas, and more. How
>>> are you going to bioengineer these nasty genes out of the human species. I
>>> don't expect this reply to your message to make it to Coral-List. Just a
>>> reality check on why this has happened and why it won't get fixed.
>>>
>>> By the way, I have been way more focused on preventing more births but
>>> of course half of the problem is that too many of us are now living much
>>> longer, and in many cases too long. But we aren't going to advocate killing
>>> off all the grandmas and grandpa's, so it's up to the younger generations
>>> to have fewer children until human population sizes stabilizes at fewer
>>> than 6 billion. It will take a re-engineering of human society and it has
>>> to be done globally, thoughtfully and intentionally. Since we all know
>>> that will never happen...
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>>> CISME Instruments LLC
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> -------- Original message --------
>>> From: Phillip Dustan via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
>>> Date: 3/29/23 7:22 AM (GMT-05:00)
>>> To: Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
>>> Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human
>>> population trends
>>>
>>> Hey Austin,
>>> All good words and kudos to Gene for championing African dust - as
>>> always.
>>> But Malthus was right many many years ago and so did the Club of Rome in
>>> the 1970's.
>>> K is for carrying capacity - plain and simple.
>>> No matter how we try, legislate, socialize, or try to
>>> involve sustainability, a blue economy, or any other concept, Planet
>>> Earth
>>> will only be able to sustain so many humans with room left over for the
>>> Biosphere to operate. Like death and taxes, there is no getting around
>>> the
>>> fact that there are just too many humans on the plane due to human
>>> reproductive success.
>>> Now, the numbers will decline due to demographics, war, and pestilence,
>>> etc but all of these make for a pretty hard landing.
>>> Lengthening the generation time can soften it a bit, but all in all the
>>> next 100 years are going to be awfully rough going for everyone.
>>> So rather than figuring out how many more people to sustain, maybe we
>>> should move towards working towards softening the landing.
>>> It might just be the key, worsening famines, preventing global riots,
>>> more
>>> terrorism, less autocracy, and so much more.
>>> Spread the wealth and work towards healing the planet rather than
>>> amassing
>>> a fortune.
>>> In the long run, money is a worthless human concept and a very misguided
>>> measuring stick of long term success.
>>> Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Mar 27, 2023 at 1:22 PM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>>
>>> > Good thoughts Alina and Doug,
>>> >
>>> > Alina, one thing to consider is that most of what you eat there in
>>> > Wilmington NC is imported- if the definition is across state lines- and
>>> > much comes from thousands of miles away.
>>> > However, the peoples of Melanesia that I have described earlier, are
>>> the
>>> > most food secure and self-sufficient people I have ever encountered,
>>> with
>>> > very low consumption of imported foods, less than 10% of their diet.
>>> They
>>> > eat what they grow or catch. No matter what happens to the global
>>> economy,
>>> > they will be minimally impacted, but climate change has them in its
>>> > sights. The over-consumption and carbon intensive lifestyles of the
>>> rich
>>> > nations threaten their long term existence.
>>> >
>>> > The global economy favors the USA and rich nations, as they can create
>>> > trillions of dollars out of thin air, while poor nations have to work
>>> and
>>> > sweat for every devalued dollar they earn. The average daily wage in
>>> the
>>> > tourism industry here in Fiji is 15 USD per day- for those who can find
>>> > jobs, and with only a small raise in 20+ years, the purchasing power
>>> of a
>>> > week's take home pay is less than half what it was 20 years ago. The
>>> > university marine studies graduates who I have trained in coral
>>> adaptation
>>> > work take jobs as resort marine biologists for a mere 5K USD per annum.
>>> > The unjust global economic order is the driver of instability and
>>> > emigration. The developed world has all the advantages, plus is
>>> largely
>>> > responsible for climate change.
>>> >
>>> > The populations have not increased greatly in the rural areas, and as
>>> Doug
>>> > mentions, many have gone way down due to urban drift and emigration.
>>> As
>>> > far as overfishing is concerned, subsistence fishing is not at
>>> overfishing
>>> > levels, but adding commercial fishing to this in order to earn money
>>> for
>>> > essentials tips it over. It is especially easy to overfish the
>>> > invertebrates, the clams and sea cucumbers and lobsters, as they do
>>> not run
>>> > and hide from the fishers, but the reef fish continue to be sufficient
>>> for
>>> > community needs in most places, especially where community tabu areas
>>> MPAs
>>> > continue to be respected, and where the people are too poor for the
>>> nylon
>>> > fishing nets. The solution within reach of the islanders is not birth
>>> > control, but rather training in alternate economic activities as well
>>> as
>>> > restoring customary management of marine resources, which our
>>> organization
>>> > is focused on. There is a new stirring among the chiefs to
>>> re-establish
>>> > permanent no-take areas that a hundred years back were scattered around
>>> > Fiji: the sacred reefs. The community based Tabu areas that we first
>>> > helped establish in 2000, tend to be opened every few years, and so
>>> they
>>> > are of limited effectiveness especially for slow to recover
>>> invertebrate
>>> > species.
>>> >
>>> > Yes the planet is diverse, but for the vast South Pacific region, it
>>> is a
>>> > lack of economic alternatives to fishing, plus climate injustice that
>>> are
>>> > driving the degradation of coral reefs, not overpopulation. The
>>> uninhabited
>>> > and un-fished islands have lost most of their corals due to mass
>>> bleaching
>>> > and no other factor.
>>> >
>>> > One Planet, One People, One Atmosphere, One Ocean.
>>> >
>>> > Regards,
>>> >
>>> > Austin
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>>> > Corals for Conservation
>>> > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > https://www.corals4conservation.org
>>> > Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
>>> strategies:
>>> > https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
>>> > 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>>> > https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>>> > TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>>> >
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>> > <
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>> > >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>>> > Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>>> > (679) 938-6437
>>> > http:/www.
>>> > <
>>> >
>>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>> > >
>>> > teiteifiji.org
>>> >
>>> >
>>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>> >
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> >
>>> > <
>>> >
>>> https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail
>>> > >
>>> > Virus-free.www.avast.com
>>> > <
>>> >
>>> https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail
>>> > >
>>> > <#m_-1498893244216222551_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>
>>> >
>>> > On Sat, Mar 18, 2023 at 3:08 PM Douglas Fenner <
>>> > douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>>> > wrote:
>>> >
>>> > > Austin,
>>> > > Thank you for this. I would add that American Samoa is the
>>> lowest
>>> > > level economy in the entire US system, it is poorer than Mississippi
>>> > (long
>>> > > the poorest US state), and Puerto Rico and every other state and
>>> > > territory. Yet, I'm pretty sure that it is richer (due to US federal
>>> > govt
>>> > > programs every state and territory in the US gets) than everywhere
>>> else
>>> > in
>>> > > the Pacific except for the other US areas and New Caledonia (which
>>> has
>>> > > significant deposits of nickel and is in the French system). The GDP
>>> > > (Gross Domestic Product) per person in American Samoa was about
>>> $6000 a
>>> > > year, last I looked, which is about the median for the whole world
>>> (and
>>> > > that's not personal income, only part of it is personal income). And
>>> > > without boring you with details, there are almost no resources here,
>>> you
>>> > > can't sell ocean water or volcanic rock, our most abundant resources.
>>> > Just
>>> > > 10 sq miles of nearly flat land. Situated near the center of an
>>> ocean
>>> > that
>>> > > covers 40% of the entire planet, nearest big university library as
>>> far as
>>> > > London is from New York.
>>> > > Yet American Samoa has mostly high islands, as does Fiji and
>>> some
>>> > > other Pacific countries. But some are atolls, which are even more
>>> > > resource-poor. They have nothing above water but sand, and no
>>> natural
>>> > > running water. There is usually a freshwater "lens" in the sand,
>>> > floating
>>> > > on top of the saltwater that is in the sand. Has some salt in it,
>>> and
>>> > gets
>>> > > anything that goes onto the ground into it as well. If there are
>>> people
>>> > > around, you wouldn't want to drink it There is essentially NO soil,
>>> it
>>> > is
>>> > > sand with little else in it. People learned how to survive there.
>>> > > The disparity in incomes drives the movement of people all over
>>> the
>>> > > planet, to get better lives. Within countries, it has long been
>>> > expressed
>>> > > as urbanization, the move to cities for more jobs and services. In
>>> the
>>> > > Pacific, people have been and will continue to, probably at
>>> increasing
>>> > > rates, move to developed countries if they can. People in
>>> US-associated
>>> > > areas move to Hawaii or the US mainland. There are more Samoans in
>>> > Carson,
>>> > > California (near LA) than in American Samoa, and there are lots in
>>> Hawaii
>>> > > and most west coast cities. People in New Zealand-associated areas
>>> of
>>> > the
>>> > > Pacific move there. There are now over 9000 people in New Zealand
>>> from
>>> > the
>>> > > tiny island nation of "Niue" south of American Samoa, and only about
>>> 1500
>>> > > left in Niue. In American Samoa, the smallest island that used to be
>>> > > inhabited is 2 miles in diameter and used to have 150 people. now
>>> it has
>>> > > zero. The next 3 islands up in size have lost half their population
>>> and
>>> > > now all the chiefs from there live on the largest island. The
>>> population
>>> > > on the largest island (which has almost all the jobs and services,
>>> and
>>> > > where I and over 90% of all the people live) has long been growing.
>>> Then
>>> > > the 2010 census reported that the territory had lost population,
>>> down by
>>> > > 5000 people. Most people didn't believe it. But in 2020 the next
>>> census
>>> > > found that it had lost another 5000 people. This is typical of many
>>> > places
>>> > > in the Pacific. The reason I'm pointing this out to you is that
>>> this may
>>> > > (may) lead to the lessening of population pressure on local
>>> resources,
>>> > such
>>> > > as fishing. In terms of local threats, this could be in coral reefs'
>>> > > favor. Of course, global warming, El Nino, heat waves, and
>>> bleaching pay
>>> > > little if any attention to how many people live there, and the
>>> people of
>>> > > the Pacific caused a very minute fraction of the emissions that are
>>> > driving
>>> > > global warming that is destroying their coral.
>>> > > Yes, fishing pressure in developing countries is for food to
>>> keep
>>> > > people alive. It varies in intensity, but nearly everywhere there
>>> are
>>> > > people, the largest reef fish species are heavily overfished, that is
>>> > their
>>> > > stocks are well below MSY (Maximum Sustainable Yield). On the other
>>> > hand,
>>> > > most fish species on coral reefs are too small to eat, the largest
>>> > families
>>> > > of reef fish are gobies, blennies, damsels, cardinalfish and wrasses.
>>> > They
>>> > > are too small, not fished, and so not overfished. The pressure on
>>> fish
>>> > > depends on their size, for two reasons. First, the larger the fish
>>> is,
>>> > the
>>> > > more it takes to feed them, and the ecosystem can't support as many
>>> large
>>> > > individuals as small individuals. Second, the payoff, whether it is
>>> in
>>> > the
>>> > > number of people that can be fed or in the money they can be sold
>>> for,
>>> > > increases with fish size. Fishermen are not dumb, and they respond
>>> to
>>> > > incentives like everybody else. The net effect is the biggest fish
>>> are
>>> > the
>>> > > first to go, the hardest hit.
>>> > > Those are fisheries in developing countries. In Florida,
>>> there is
>>> > > a 2 day recreational fishing season for lobster, before the
>>> commercial
>>> > > season. Every year, about 50,000 divers descend on Florida and in 2
>>> days
>>> > > remove about 80-90% of all the lobsters. Coral reef fisheries in
>>> > developed
>>> > > countries are mainly viewed as recreational. In Hawaii, there is
>>> also a
>>> > > segment of the fishing population who are not the rich outsiders that
>>> > come
>>> > > and buy everything up and just play at fishing for fun, but who
>>> struggle
>>> > in
>>> > > that expensive place, where they grew up, to put food on the table,
>>> and
>>> > > fish for that reason. So fishing on coral reefs can be very
>>> intensive in
>>> > > developed countries just as it is in developing countries.
>>> > > Cheers, Doug
>>> > >
>>> > > On Fri, Mar 17, 2023 at 8:49 AM Austin Bowden-Kerby <
>>> > > abowdenkerby at gmail.com> wrote:
>>> > >
>>> > >> Dear Alina, Doug, and Coral List community,
>>> > >>
>>> > >> While population pressure is indeed driving so much of the planetary
>>> > >> level destruction and climate change, there is a very large
>>> disconnect
>>> > >> between human population and coral reef decline. The entire Pacific
>>> > >> Islands- all of them, including Hawaii and the island parts of PNG,
>>> US
>>> > and
>>> > >> French islands contain about 3 million people. This is roughly
>>> > equivalent
>>> > >> to the population of Puerto Rico. While the island of Hispaniola
>>> has
>>> > over
>>> > >> 22 million! Despite the low population to reef ratio of the Pacific
>>> > >> Islands, many of the coral reefs are overfished and badly impacted
>>> by
>>> > coral
>>> > >> bleaching. The overfishing is related to the fact that the
>>> majority of
>>> > >> people in the region participate marginally in the global economy,
>>> with
>>> > >> most of their food coming from what they can catch in the sea and
>>> grow
>>> > on
>>> > >> the land. Cash is very hard to come by, and saleable or exportable
>>> > >> resources are already badly depleted: sea cucumbers, tridacnid
>>> clams,
>>> > >> lobsters, etc. The poverty level for a family of 5-7 in Fiji is
>>> > $3,500.
>>> > >> USD per year- but that is used for statistical purposes only, as
>>> there
>>> > is
>>> > >> no welfare system. 50% of the population of Fiji live below that
>>> level!
>>> > >> In the Solomon Islands, PNG, and Vanuatu, people are even more poor
>>> > and so
>>> > >> they still mostly live in thatched houses and use wood fires for
>>> > cooking.
>>> > >> If the environment can not feed them, they starve. Cyclone impacts
>>> are
>>> > >> horrific and outside aid often comes late and is insufficient. Some
>>> > remote
>>> > >> communities in Vanuatu are right now going hungry due to the two
>>> > cyclones
>>> > >> which hit two weeks ago. These people are not a burden on the
>>> earth's
>>> > >> climate, yet they are on the leading edge of climate change impacts.
>>> > >> Climate change and poverty and a lack of alternative food sources is
>>> > what
>>> > >> is driving coral reef decline here and in the undeveloped parts of
>>> the
>>> > >> world.
>>> > >>
>>> > >> I have just yesterday returned from Moturiki Island, where on most
>>> reefs
>>> > >> over a wide area, 99% of Acropora corals are severely bleached- yet
>>> > again,
>>> > >> the 4th major bleaching for that site. Many of the corals have
>>> started
>>> > to
>>> > >> die, but fortunately due to cloudy and windy weather, and the two
>>> > cyclones
>>> > >> which passed to the West of Fiji, our sites at Malolo, on the
>>> western
>>> > reefs
>>> > >> have been spared a mass bleaching, and the open ocean temperature
>>> has
>>> > >> cooled down from 30C to 29C. Also in Moturiki, which is supposedly
>>> > >> condition one, roughly 50% of Acropora still retains the color of
>>> algal
>>> > >> symbionts on the shaded underneath parts, so we expect these corals
>>> to
>>> > >> mostly recover. Our strategy is to collect as many of the
>>> unbleached
>>> > >> corals as we can before the recovery of partially bleached corals
>>> > >> happens, to create a collection of known bleaching resistant corals.
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Because Porites and massive species are doing much better, and as
>>> > >> Acropora is the first group to die out due to bleaching stress,
>>> > Acropora is
>>> > >> our primary focus. Acropora is also essential for planktivorous
>>> fish,
>>> > >> which the Porites and other massive species simply do not provide.
>>> > >> Pocillopora is second in importance as far as habitat for small
>>> fish,
>>> > but
>>> > >> it is considerably more resilient than Acropora, and it tends to
>>> > increase
>>> > >> on bleaching stressed reefs as the Acropora declines. Measures of
>>> > coral
>>> > >> cover, like that reported by GCRMN, or bleaching reported as
>>> percent of
>>> > all
>>> > >> corals bleached- without any differentiation between genera, are
>>> > failing to
>>> > >> record the phase shift in species which is occurring on reefs
>>> throughout
>>> > >> the Pacific region. The collapse of coral reefs in the face of
>>> climate
>>> > >> change is clearly occurring as a series of phase shifts in species
>>> > >> composition, but few have connected the dots of information as
>>> > monitoring
>>> > >> data is scant. My conclusion is backed up in some long term data
>>> sets,
>>> > and
>>> > >> comes from first hand observation and interviews with local
>>> communities.
>>> > >> Fiji and GBR have fortunately resisted the phase shift quite well,
>>> as
>>> > >> Acropora larval sources have been retained, with a complete phase
>>> shift
>>> > to
>>> > >> Pocillopora dominance seen in the Society Islands, and now the phase
>>> > shift
>>> > >> is happening in Kiribati reefs and the Line Islands, with numerous
>>> local
>>> > >> Acropora extinctions, and with low diversity reefs dominated by
>>> Porites
>>> > rus
>>> > >> or Montipora sp. I might add that most reefs of the Line Islands
>>> have
>>> > >> virtually no fishing pressure, and the stress is 100% related to
>>> > bleaching.
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Unfortunately this time around, the Lau island group of islands to
>>> the
>>> > >> East of Fiji, as well as southern Tonga have been severely impacted
>>> by
>>> > >> bleaching, and although there are no reports coming in yet, the
>>> stress,
>>> > >> based on the NOAA data, has been particularly severe. So I expect a
>>> > >> massive die-off of Acropora in both island groups. The problem is
>>> that
>>> > >> these reefs are directly upcurrent of the main islands of Fiji
>>> during
>>> > >> normal weather patterns. In the past they were likely the source of
>>> > >> excellent larval-based recovery after severe bleaching on Fiji's
>>> reefs,
>>> > but
>>> > >> now will that high resilience be changed?
>>> > >>
>>> > >> On closing, I am happy to report that the village communities just
>>> re
>>> > >> established their no-take Tabu areas in two sites, and the plan is
>>> to
>>> > use
>>> > >> the bleaching resistant corals that we collect, once the cool season
>>> > >> arrives, as part of a community-focused project to restore and
>>> increase
>>> > >> coral cover within the Tabu areas, planting coral fragments onto
>>> > A-frames
>>> > >> which help with survival and rapid growth, while serving as
>>> immediate
>>> > fish
>>> > >> habitat. Multiple genets of each species are planted together to
>>> > encourage
>>> > >> effective spawning once the corals mature. For those interested,
>>> more
>>> > >> details on these strategies can be found in my recent paper, link
>>> below.
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Kind regards,
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Austin
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>>> > >> Corals for Conservation
>>> > >> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>>> > >> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>>> > >> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
>>> strategies:
>>> > >> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
>>> > >> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>>> > >> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>> > >> <
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>> > >
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>>> > >> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>>> > >> (679) 938-6437
>>> > >> http:/www.
>>> > >> <
>>> >
>>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>> > >
>>> > >> teiteifiji.org
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> >
>>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> >
>>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > >> On Sat, Mar 18, 2023 at 1:36 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
>>> > >> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>> > >>
>>> > >>> Here is even a better resource for looking at human population
>>> trends
>>> > by
>>> > >>> country, by age group and many more options. It’s interactive.
>>> Lots of
>>> > fun.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/900
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> >
>>> *************************************************************************
>>> > >>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>>> > >>> CISME Instruments LLC
>>> > >>> 210 Braxlo Lane,
>>> > >>> Wilmington NC 28409 USA
>>> > >>> AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
>>> > >>> cell: 910-200-3913<tel:(910)%20200-3913>
>>> > >>> EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:
>>> alina at cisme-instruments.com>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> CISME IS NOW SOLD BY QUBIT SYSTEMS;
>>> https://qubitbiology.com/cisme/
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> **********************************************************
>>> > >>> Videos: CISME Promotional Video 5:43 min
>>> > >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAYeR9qX71A&t=6s
>>> > >>> CISME Short version Demo Video 3:00 min
>>> > >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa4SqS7yC08
>>> > >>> CISME Cucalorus 10x10 Sketch 4:03 min
>>> > >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12sAV8oUluE
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> From: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>>> > >>> Sent: Monday, March 13, 2023 11:08 PM
>>> > >>> To: Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
>>> > >>> Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> > >>> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the
>>> > Caribbean
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> I certainly agree that "the more people, the more disturbance" so
>>> long
>>> > >>> as each person does about as much. Population is very much a
>>> > problem. But
>>> > >>> it is only part of the problem.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Yes, population is a problem, no, there is no chance it will get
>>> solved
>>> > >>> in time for saving reefs, but it is going to resolve itself without
>>> > much of
>>> > >>> any intervention, and that is already well underway. Meantime, you
>>> > don't
>>> > >>> mention over-consumption, and few others want to talk about it
>>> > either. But
>>> > >>> then, very very few people want to reduce their consumption,
>>> everyone
>>> > wants
>>> > >>> the economy to grow as much as possible, get richer, spend more,
>>> throw
>>> > more
>>> > >>> away. Economy size and wealth drive some of the environmental
>>> damage,
>>> > like
>>> > >>> climate change, plastic trash, and other aspects. Population and
>>> > >>> consumption multiply each other in producing environmental damage
>>> > >>> Technology seems about our only semi-realistic hope.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> As for population, birth rates are way down in almost all
>>> countries.
>>> > >>> The peak birth rate for the world was way back in 1968, it has
>>> fallen
>>> > a lot
>>> > >>> since then. They are way below replacement in China, Japan, S.
>>> Korea,
>>> > >>> Taiwan, Italy, and several other countries. Birth rate in the US
>>> is
>>> > now
>>> > >>> nearly down to 1.7 children per mother on the average, and
>>> replacement
>>> > is
>>> > >>> 2.1 (population in the US continues to grow, but slowly, due to
>>> > >>> immigration). Long been below replacement in most of what was the
>>> > Soviet
>>> > >>> Union, if I remember. Europe is going to lose population. Now,
>>> as it
>>> > has
>>> > >>> long been stated for Japan, the countries with very low birth
>>> rates are
>>> > >>> facing mounting problems due to much lower numbers of people of
>>> working
>>> > >>> age, paying to support more people at retirement age. In developed
>>> > >>> economies, children are expensive, women want to work, and child
>>> care
>>> > is
>>> > >>> expensive, so they choose to have fewer children. It is the
>>> > "demographic
>>> > >>> transition" and it is very widespread.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Check it out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8<<
>>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8<>
>>> > >>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> The Great People Shortage is coming — and it's going to cause
>>> global
>>> > >>> economic chaos
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> >
>>> https://www.businessinsider.com/great-labor-shortage-looming-population-decline-disaster-global-economy-2022-10
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> "By the end of this century, the global population will have
>>> decreased
>>> > >>> by 1 billion people from its peak, according to a 2020 analysis by
>>> > >>> researchers at the Gates Foundation, and in the most extreme
>>> scenario,
>>> > the
>>> > >>> population could decline by almost 2 billion from where it is
>>> today, to
>>> > >>> just over 6 billion. The German working population will have
>>> declined<
>>> > >>> https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext>
>>> by a
>>> > >>> third, based on the average scenario from the researchers, and in
>>> > Italy,
>>> > >>> Spain, and Greece it will have declined by more than half. Poland,
>>> > >>> Portugal, Romania, Japan, and China will all lose up to two-thirds
>>> of
>>> > their
>>> > >>> labor force, according to the projections. The looming population
>>> > decline
>>> > >>> is a wake-up call: Instead of the "population bomb" that some have
>>> > feared
>>> > >>> for decades, we will face a population drop, and it will have
>>> enormous
>>> > >>> consequences for the world's prosperity."
>>> > >>> China will lose half its population by the end of the century —
>>> and the
>>> > >>> ripple effects will be catastrophic
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> >
>>> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-shrinking-population-grim-omen-110400765.html
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> >
>>> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3203833/chinas-shrinking-working-age-population-send-ripples-through-global-economy
>>> > >>> "China’s fertility rate decreased from 2.6 in the late
>>> 1980s
>>> > to
>>> > >>> just 1.15 last year, well below the 2.1 needed to replace deaths."
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> There are articles like this popping up all over the web now.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> So, in terms of huge population damaging the environment, the
>>> future
>>> > >>> population decreases look encouraging, though it will take too much
>>> > time to
>>> > >>> get there to help reefs that are forecast to be hit hard within 2-3
>>> > decades.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Cheers, Doug
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> On Mon, Mar 13, 2023 at 7:46 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
>>> > >>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:
>>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>
>>> > >>> wrote:
>>> > >>> Thanks Gene for once again weaving the data into a cohesive
>>> scenario
>>> > >>> that starts with: too many people doing what people do best....
>>> > disturbing
>>> > >>> the natural environment to grow food and other human life
>>> necessities.
>>> > The
>>> > >>> more people the more disturbance. And this has been going on for
>>> > millenia.
>>> > >>> After all, humanity started in Africa. Most of what you describe
>>> has
>>> > been
>>> > >>> happening long before the industrial revolution and the rapid
>>> increase
>>> > in
>>> > >>> greenhouse gas concentrations responsible for recent global
>>> warming.
>>> > >>> Anthropogenic climate and environmental change and degradation has
>>> been
>>> > >>> occurring for much longer than the rise of global temperature
>>> since the
>>> > >>> boom in use of fossil fuels. And coral reefs are not the only
>>> > ecosystems
>>> > >>> affected by human activity. If you could ask the Sargassum how
>>> they
>>> > feel
>>> > >>> about all this, they would tell us they love it! To paraphrase a
>>> great
>>> > line
>>> > >>> from Encanto ("We don't talk about Bruno"): humanity doesn't want
>>> to
>>> > talk
>>> > >>> about human overpopulation and the cumulative impact of now 8
>>> billion
>>> > >>> people going about their daily business. There were only 2 billion
>>> > people
>>> > >>> on Earth 100 years ago. Not wonder everything is falling apart!
>>> Only 4
>>> > % of
>>> > >>> mammal biomass is made up of mammal wildlife. What happened to all
>>> the
>>> > >>> wildlife? They have been killed off as food or decimated by loss of
>>> > >>> habitat. Their biomass has been replaced by humans and our food
>>> animals
>>> > >>> (plus a few % of pets).
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Can't save coral reefs if we have a bigger structural problem to
>>> deal
>>> > >>> with. And yes, social inequality and inequity is a contributing
>>> factor
>>> > but
>>> > >>> not the main one.
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>>> > >>> CISME Instruments LLC
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> -------- Original message --------
>>> > >>> From: Eugene Shinn via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> > >>> <mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>
>>> > >>> Date: 3/13/23 1:19 PM (GMT-05:00)
>>> > >>> To: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:
>>> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> > >>> >
>>> > >>> Subject: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the
>>> Caribbean
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> As a geologist/biologist diving the Fla Keys and much of the
>>> > >>> Caribbean long before the coral-list, Brian LaPointe, and Marine
>>> > >>> Sanctuaries existed, I have watched corals diseases develop and
>>> other
>>> > >>> crises come and go. HoweverI do not recall a time when Sargassum
>>> growth
>>> > >>> exploded such as it has in the past 2 decades. Of course there
>>> were no
>>> > >>> satellites for observing the explosive growth back then,
>>> nevertheless
>>> > we
>>> > >>> would have experienced abundant floating seaweed accumulating on
>>> > beaches
>>> > >>> such as it has in the past 2 decades.During these recent decades
>>> the
>>> > >>> explosive growth has been building year after year. Now the newest
>>> area
>>> > >>> of weed forms a belt stretching from West Africa to the Caribbean
>>> and
>>> > >>> beyond and it keeps enlarging. The Amazon and other rivers have
>>> often
>>> > >>> been blamed in the past even though it seems difficult for those
>>> waters
>>> > >>> to reach West Africa. Let’s see, can we blame ballast water and/or
>>> > >>> cruise ships? Climate Change? Upwelling? Cosmic Rays? There must be
>>> > >>> something out there that affects that region on a yearly basis.
>>> > Whatever
>>> > >>> it is satellite images indicate it is coming from Africa,
>>> especially
>>> > >>> during our summer months. I once read some technical papers that
>>> stated
>>> > >>> the Amazon Rain Forrest receives its essential nutrients mainly
>>> during
>>> > >>> our winter months. It seems there is a this red/brown powder that
>>> > >>> accumulates on limbs and leaves high up in Amazon forest trees.
>>> Because
>>> > >>> of it some limbs even sprout rThat powder has been shown to contain
>>> > >>> essential nutrients. What is it? During our summer months that
>>> belt of
>>> > >>> powder moves northward and forms a thin soil over the prevailing
>>> > >>> limestone of Caribbean Islands. Some even reach the Florida Keys
>>> and
>>> > >>> Bermuda. It forms a thin hard laminated red/brown crust in the
>>> Florida
>>> > >>> Keys that has been forming for several thousand years. That crust
>>> > >>> contains clay minerals not native to the Keys, or Bermuda. We even
>>> have
>>> > >>> an agricultural area west of Miami called the Red-lands. I wonder
>>> what
>>> > >>> it is and how did it get there?
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Of course long-time readers of the list know exactly what I am
>>> writing
>>> > >>> about. Just suppose that stuff gets sprinkled on the water forming
>>> a
>>> > >>> belt that spans the Atlantic Ocean. I wonder if it might stimulate
>>> the
>>> > >>> growth of a floating plant held afloat by small gas filled floats?
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> Why had it not affected the seaweed, and the corals, or caused red
>>> > tides
>>> > >>> in the past? Dr. Joe Prospero, now retired from the U. of Miami
>>> Marine
>>> > >>> Lab monitored
>>> > >>> African dust flux at Barbados starting in 1965. That monitoring is
>>> > >>> on-going. There was little dust in the past when there was far less
>>> > >>> people/agriculture in the Schell desert of North Africa and less
>>> > >>> pesticides used to control Locusts outbreaks and mosquitoes. There
>>> was
>>> > >>> also a hundred-mile-wide lake Chad there in 1960 that has
>>> evaporated
>>> > >>> down to only a few miles wide. It’s exposed lake bed, and whatever
>>> had
>>> > >>> accumulated in it, is now blowing across the Atlantic. Need I say
>>> more?
>>> > >>>
>>> > >>> After all these years I keep wondering why some organization has
>>> not
>>> > >>> studied the situation? We at the USGS monitored and cultured live
>>> > >>> bacteria in the dust and noted the presence of numerous viruses in
>>> the
>>> > >>> late 1990s. While the military followed our work, because of
>>> bioterror
>>> > >>> implications, there was little interest within our organization.
>>> Only
>>> > >>> the US Academy of Environmental medicine appreciated the work
>>> because
>>> > of
>>> > >>> the clear evidence of medical effects on humans, especially on
>>> > Caribbean
>>> > >>> Islands. Trying to understand why there was so little interest in
>>> the
>>> > >>> projectI keep coming back to the fact that no one is going to make
>>> > >>> money determining if that dust is the cause of coral, and medical
>>> > >>> effects. Who benefits if you can’t stop it? Of course the many
>>> > thousands
>>> > >>> with respiratory diseases in the Caribbean and Eastern Bahamas
>>> might
>>> > >>> benefit but does that put any money in anyone's pocket? And what
>>> can be
>>> > >>> done to stop it? Oh Well, I will continue to watch and wait. I
>>> thank
>>> > >>> Doug Fenner for pointing out this latest explosion of Sargassium
>>> and
>>> > >>> will wait for his short reply. Gene
>>> > >>> _______________________________________________
>>> > >>> Coral-List mailing list
>>> > >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:
>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
>>> > >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>> > >>> _______________________________________________
>>> > >>> Coral-List mailing list
>>> > >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:
>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
>>> > >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>> > >>> _______________________________________________
>>> > >>> Coral-List mailing list
>>> > >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> > >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>> > >>
>>> > >>
>>> > _______________________________________________
>>> > Coral-List mailing list
>>> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Phillip Dustan PhD
>>> Charleston SC 29424
>>> 843-953-8086 office
>>> 843-224-3321 (mobile)
>>>
>>> "When we try to pick out anything by itself
>>> we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
>>> that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
>>> * John Muir 1869*
>>>
>>> *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
>>> *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
>>>
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
>>> *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
>>>
>>> *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
>>> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
>>> TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
>>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
>>> Google Scholar Citations:
>>> https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Coral-List mailing list
>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Coral-List mailing list
>>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>>
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