[Coral-List] new paper about human overpopulation

[Peter Sale]

Hi listers,
Given that Earth Day is just about here, this is the time of year when I like to take time to reflect on where we stand in our on-going efforts to reign in our worst excesses environmentally. I was dutifully drafting a post for my blog that scarcely mentioned coral reefs, but did lead with a litany of the bad news around the world. We have been doing a terrible job of reducing our impacts on the planet, to the detriment of coral reefs and much of the rest of creation. I was so busy I was not even taking time to find out just how bad the bleaching is on Heron Island and One Tree Reef - happening this very minute - and then I saw the good news on Science's news site, and from there straight to the article in the Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

Our global population is still growing, but we are set to reach the point when average female lifetime fecundity is 2.1 = replacement level by 2034, a peak population of about 9.73 billion in 2064, and a population at 2100 of about 8.79 billion and still falling. If we do really well at educating women and giving them opportunities to do something other than make babies, the point at which lifetime fecundity reaches 2.1 could be as early as 2030, with a peak even earlier than 2064 and a (falling) population of about 6.29 billion - almost 2 billion people fewer than today!

This is the most encouraging news I have seen re the environmental crisis in a long time because it makes lowering the global human footprint a lot easier than it was going to be. Keep on working to protect coral reefs, the world may be becoming a better place far sooner than expected. I finished my post with the thought: "Would it not be wonderful if on Earth Day of 2078 (54 years from now and 108 years since the first Earth Day) we could look around and report that some of our mistakes have been repaired, and that we are well on the way to repairing many others. That we have in fact become stewards of this planet instead of its pillagers." It's at https://www.petersalebooks.com/getting-real-for-earth-day/

Long ago at an ICRS in Fort Lauderdale, I almost got expelled from ICRS by suggesting we could "Save a Coral Reef - Use a Condom" - perhaps some people were listening? No! This is not about me, but it is about reducing the impact of our species on this amazing planet. Do NOT be fooled by the short-termism of politicians around the world who are frantically trying to get their populations to have more children - the economic problems that will arise as populations fall are transitory, while the reduction in our impacts (assuming we do not continue to amass ever greater wealth and express it in consumption) that will result can be permanent.

Peter Sale
University of Windsor (exceedingly emeritus)
www.petersalebooks.com