[Coral-List] New paper about human overpopulation

Mon Apr 8 02:58:13 UTC 2024

Alina,
     I agree, except the ideal number of humans depends heavily on how much
they consume.  If they consume like Americans and others in some developed
countries, the earth can support many fewer people than if they consume
less.  But as incomes rise in many countries as they develop, consumption
rises as well, more cars, more eating meat, and many other things, many of
which are damaging to our environment, including coral reefs.  Technology
is also contributing.  Modern farming methods (steel plow and tractor to
till soil, for instance) leads to more sediment and nutrient runoff (the
latter increased by modern fertilizer use, the discovery of how to make
ammonia fertilizer from methane (natural gas) has been called the "fuse
that lit the population bomb" because it made possible feeding so many more
people).  Modern construction machinery makes possible construction that
leads to more sediment runoff.  Sediment and nutrients damage reefs.
Modern technology makes fishing vastly easier, more powerful, and enables
overfishing which damages coral reefs.  My bet is that if all modern
fishing gear was banned from coral reefs, so no steel hooks, nylon lines
and nets, metal and fiberglass boats, boat engines, fossil fuel, scuba
tanks, waterproof flashlights (torches), steel spears and on and on, it
would be near impossible to overfish coral reefs using carved fish hooks,
twisted coconut fibers, dugout canoes, sails, paddles, wooden spears, etc.
Further, it would be so much more work that almost everyone fishing coral
reefs would either do something else or starve.  Human starvation is why we
better not try to stop all coral reef fishing, better to create other jobs
that pay better.
        As I've said before, I don't see how human population can be
reduced fast enough to save coral reefs.  If anybody can think of a way to
reduce human population to half or so fast enough, please let us know.  It
isn't complacency about population, it's the fact that there is no ethical
way to reduce population fast enough to save coral reefs, which is said to
be needed within 20-30 years, but the present rate of heating suggests we
may need it in just a year or two.  For the rest of the scraps of the
natural world still left other than coral reefs and perhaps Arctic tundra,
reducing population may be able to save a few scraps, or at least have them
not so badly destroyed that humans themselves are at risk.  So over the
longer term, reducing human populations is not only an urgent concern, but
something that we can do something about, rich countries providing free
voluntary family planning for everyone on the planet who can't afford it
and wants it, for a starter.  But the demographic transition that comes
with development is the most powerful way to reduce human population, and
it is happening whether people or governments like it or not.  And
government efforts to try to get people to have larger families, has, as
far as I know, but a big failure.  But not all countries are developing
fast enough, and some still have rapidly growing populations which strain
everything from government budgets to ability to produce more jobs and
build schools fast enough, to food and energy supplies, etc.  We COULD help
those countries with free voluntary family planning, but we haven't so far
which suggests to me we won't.  Which I think is counterproductive.
        Meantime, there are some countries that are facing human population
declines so fast that they can cause significant problems.  Hopefully all
solvable, but there are no guarantees.. Complacency about those problems
won't help solve them, either.
       Cheers, Doug

On Sun, Apr 7, 2024 at 12:13 PM Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
wrote:

> “A drop below replacement fertility does not mean global population will
> immediately fall. It will likely take about 30 additional years, or roughly
> how long it takes for a new generation to start to reproduce, for the
> global death rate to exceed the birth rate. “
>
>
>
> This is a critical point missed by too many complacent with current human
> numbers. Mother Earth urgently needs the number of humans trashing it in so
> many different ways, to decrease by about 50 % of those of us alive today.
> Not just maintain our numbers in order to continue our modern economic
> growth model.
>
>
>
> Best estimates of how many humans Earth can sustain without destroying the
> rest of the Earth’s ecosystem (I am not talking about just housing and
> feeding humans, I am referring to everything NON-HUMAN that has been and is
> being lost ), is 4. 5 Billion people.
>
>
>
>
>
> *************************************************************************
>
> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>
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> *From:* Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Sunday, April 7, 2024 3:22 AM
> *To:* Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
> *Cc:* Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> *Subject:* Re: [Coral-List] New paper about human overpopulation
>
>
>
> Another new piece has a quite different viewpoint on human population.
> Links are included to some of the original articles.  I agree that although
> these articles don't mention coral reefs, they are relevant, as it is one
> of the ultimate drivers of reef damage.
>
>
>
>
> https://www.science.org/content/article/population-tipping-point-could-arrive-2030
>
>
>
> Cheers, Doug
>
>
>
> On Tue, Mar 19, 2024 at 4:11 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>
> https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1339933/full
>
> Coral reefs do not exist in a vacuum. They are just one of the many
> ecosystems on Earth being physically and chemically impacted by human
> activity. I am not trying re-initiate the 'numbers of people' vs 'levels of
> consumption' argument, because both are important to factoring human impact
> on ecosystems, including coral reefs. I just want to share a very recent
> review publication on the issue of overpopulation from Frontiers in Public
> Health, a journal not many of us regularly check, disseminated by Paul
> Ehrlich to his email list. Coral reefs are not mentioned in it, but the
> message is still relevant.
>
> Happy Birthday Mike Risk.
>
>
> *************************************************************************
> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
> CISME Instruments LLC
> 210 Braxlo Lane,
> Wilmington NC 28409 USA
> AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
> cell: (910)200-3913
> EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com
>
> CISME IS NOW SOLD BY QUBIT SYSTEMS; https://qubitbiology.com/cisme/
>
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