[Coral-List] global threats drive coral declines of world reefs, not local impacts

[Risk, Michael]

   Doug, you should read that paper carefully. Absorb the statistical
   manipulations and the assumptions.

   Compare that paper with the-literally-100's that have shown the
   contrary.
     __________________________________________________________________

   From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf of
   Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
   Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2024 12:52 AM
   To: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
   Subject: [Coral-List] global threats drive coral declines of world
   reefs, not local impacts

   Caution: External email.
          I just discovered this article.  They found that coral cover
   does
   not correlate with local human populations, a proxy for local human
   impacts.  That implies that world coral declines are primarily driven
   by
   global threats, not local threats.  There are obvious local impacts on
   corals that we do need to address, of course, the evidence of that is
   abundant.  But for the world's corals as a whole, not only is global
   warming crucial to reduce, but it is nearly the whole ball game.  The
   results for macroalgae are similar, there is a statistically
   significant
   effect on both by population due to the large sample size, but for
   both, it
   is tiny and so ecologically unimportant.
   They point out that it is very different with reef fish, local
   human effects are the dominant impacts on reef fish populations, with
   loads
   of evidence it correlates with distance from humans, distance to large
   markets, closed vs open fishing areas, etc.  And of course, loss of
   coral
   and rugosity also reduces fish.  So the results of this study are
   specific
   to corals and macroalgae and largely don't extend to fish.
    Bruno, J.F. and Valdivia, A. 2016. Coral reef degradation is not
   correlated with local human population density. Scientific Reports 6:
   29778, 7pp.
   [1]https://www.nature.com/articles/srep29778      open-access
   Cheers, Doug
   --
   Douglas Fenner
   Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
   NOAA Fisheries Service
   Pacific Islands Regional Office
   Honolulu
   and:
   Coral Reef Consulting
   PO Box 997390
   Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298  USA
   Costanza, R. 2023. To build a better world, stop chasing economic
   growth.
   Nature 624: 519-521.
   [2]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04029-8
   Fossil fuel air pollution kills 5 million people world-wide per year
   [3]https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-shows-disturbing-between-million
   s-200000257.html
   World's richest 1% emit as much as 5 billion people
   [4]https://makerichpolluterspay.org/climate-equality-report/
   Huge expansion of fossil fuels planned, will be very destructive
   [5]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrost
   ates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report
   "without policy changes, the world will heat up enough by the end of
   the
   century that more than 2 billion people will live in life-threatening
   hot
   climates"         Will you be in that area???
   [6]https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-sounding-alarm-dangerous-probl
   em-123000792.html
   World subsidies for fossil fuels reached an all-time high of over $1
   TRILLION in 2022, the last year for which data is available.  The
   subsidies
   MUST end.
   [7]https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsid
   ies-must-end/
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   Coral-List mailing list
   Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
   [8]https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list

References

   1. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep29778
   2. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04029-8
   3. https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-shows-disturbing-between-millions-200000257.html
   4. https://makerichpolluterspay.org/climate-equality-report/
   5. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report
   6. https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-sounding-alarm-dangerous-problem-123000792.html
   7. https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/
   8. https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list