[Coral-List] Talk of a "Blue Economy" Indicates Denial of the Unfolding Mass Extinction Level Marine Heat Event

[Austin Bowden-Kerby]

Dear friends,

I don't think that all of us are on the same page as far as the new thermal
stress levels and the reality of what has just happened.  Addressing water
pollution and overfishing and talking of a Blue Economy is not going to fix
this!  The belief that coral reefs will survive if we simply fix the
chronic problems of pollution and overfishing still persists, but it does
not face our new reality.  A massive wreck has occurred: we can treat the
broken arm later, after we control the bleeding from this gushing wound.
Even then, the patient may not survive.

As far as temperature, it is time to realize that we are living in 2044,
not 2024!  As far as temperature, everything changed in 2023.  And what is
so concerning is that no one can explain why, my own hypothesis is that
AMOC collapse has begun.  The world was deceived at COP28 when 1.5C was
still the mantra, when our planet had already clearly surpassed the 1.5
target, and all the climate scientists knew it.  The mean temperature for
2023 is now calculated to have been 1.54 and for 2024 it is now averaging
1.7C above pre-industrial levels, and we even surpassed 2.0C several times
this year.  We are clearly heading to 2.0C within a few years.  This spells
DEATH to all coral reefs everywhere.

For those who still have some living coral reefs, do you realize what going
way above 1.5C means?  It means that we can now expect bleaching every
summer everywhere and on every reef from this point out!

Is any form of "Blue Economy" possible when 90-100% of the corals are
dead?  Do we continue to dive on dead reefs and play on eroding beaches?
 IPCC and others have clearly predicted that we would experience a 70-98%
loss of corals at 1.5C, and we are considerably above that now.  99-100% of
reefs are predicted to be gone at 2.0C, and we are nearly there.

Pearce-Kelly et al. 2024, which I found in the link kindly provided by
Martin at Reefscapers: https://reefscapers.com/links-2024/ quotes the below:

1.5°C - “...coral reefs… will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to
marine heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5°C and are at high risk
this century even in <1.5°C scenarios that include periods of temperature
overshoot beyond 1.5°C (high confidence).” (IPCC 2022). Projections predict
70-90% coral loss at 1.5°C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018; IPBS 2019; Souter et
al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022), whereas finer scale modelling
projects a 95-98% loss (Kalmus et al (2022) and suggest  99% loss Dixon et
al 2022).
2.0°C -: “literature since AR5 has provided a closer focus on the
comparative levels of risk to coral reefs at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global
warming … reaching 2°C will increase the frequency of mass coral bleaching
and mortality to a point at which it will result in the total loss of coral
reefs from the world’s tropical and subtropical regions.” (IPCC 2018).
Predictions show 99% coral loss at 2.0C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018; IPBS
2019; Souter et al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022). Finer scale modelling
projects 100% loss at 2.0°C. (Dixon et al 2022; Kalmus et al 2022).

Based on a consensus quoted above, there is now a very high probability
that most or even all of your corals will be gone within a few years.
 Time has run out.  If we do nor realize the facts and act, we are in real
danger of losing everything.

The question we might ask ourselves now is this:  What can we do urgently
to prevent the mass die-off of our corals?   Do we bring them on land- if
so, then what?   We are encouraging Reefs of Hope strategies, with whole
coral colony translocation from hot nearshore reef areas to cooler offshore
reefs and from shallow reef areas prone to exposure at low tide to deeper
and cooler areas, just moving corals a few kms locally, for reefs that have
strong thermal gradients this may be possible at scale.  The many corals
left behind serve as the controls.  We encourage moving whole colonies and
maintaining the same N/S orientation, because that eliminates a major
source of UV stress.  Based on just what happened in the Caribbean, we
recommend nursery designs that can easily be shaded, should the heat become
more intense.

This is not the time for fragmenting corals and for "restoration" as
once carried out, or for creating tree nurseries that can not be shaded.
The goal now must be to secure as much genetic diversity as possible in
preparation for the intense marine heat waves that will be hitting our
reefs in the coming months and years.  We must do our best to keep the
corals alive and in the ocean!
https://oceandecade.org/actions/reefs-of-hope/

I hope this matter can become the primary focus of the Reef Futures meeting
in Mexico next December.  Will this meeting follow on another mass
bleaching event in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans?  We need to be
truthful if we want the corals to survive, and we need to develop
strategies to help each other along.

Regards to all,

Austin



Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands


https://www.corals4conservation.org
Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change adaptation
strategies:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>





On Sun, Mar 24, 2024 at 10:15 AM Mbije Nsajigwa via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> This is great.
>
> Mbije
>
> On Fri, 22 Mar 2024, 00:32 International Coral Reef Observatory via
> Coral-List, <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Dear All,
> >
> > A new field of knowledge and practice for young coral reef researchers!!
> > This message is to contribute to the recent question on the list about
> *How
> > do we prudently guide innovators, businesses, investors, decision makers,
> > governments, etc. to pursue a smart "Blue Economy"?*"  — one that makes
> > sense biologically, socially, and economically.
> >
> > We should have the coral reef conservation objectives clear, updated
> > transdisciplinary research, and the proper economic valuation of life
> > (Including Humans) in a healthy coral reef.  How much does it cost to
> > create and keep life? Trillion dollars to value a coral reef area will
> keep
> > the doctors (that support unsustainable development) away. Yes, because
> if
> > the developers know that it is not cheap to keep polluting and destroying
> > coral reefs and that there will be a governmental fine that they can not
> > pay, and the stronger local communities will request politicians to act
> > according to law, then developers will look for other alternatives.
> >
> > The ICRS and ICRI should write the guidelines for code of conduct and
> > ethics for scientists, governments and enterprises. Nowadays, it is a
> > business to hire restoration practitioners for less than a million of
> > dollars to justify a permissive EIA and allow any coral reef degradation.
> > Academia is getting funds also from that "Blue Economy". Well, the money
> > should be to save coral reefs, not helping the destruction continue.
> >
> > Keeping that in mind, we all know that it is scientifically correct to
> > avoid more pollution and direct destruction of coral reefs. Therefore, we
> > should stop any unsustainable development that will produce
> > environmental impact to coral reefs.
> >
> > The Blue Economy should evolve as it is possible, with advanced
> technology,
> > activities on innovative alternatives that will not produce pollution or
> > destruction of coral reefs. That is why we only should look for the
> > environmentally sound ones very far from coral reefs. It is not more
> > acceptable that fake promises to save coral reefs with restoration
> projects
> > keep continuing the support the let us call instead of "Blue" "the Dirty
> > Economy" the one that 100% sure will continue with business as usual
> > destroying the remainings of coral reefs, if scientists continue being
> part
> > of the business biasing their knowledge by getting profit.
> >
> > Maritime industries should have alternatives in other places far from
> coral
> > reefs and with the best technologies that will not pollute water, eco
> > friendly tourism. It is not possible to encourage massive tourism in huge
> > vessels to navigate close to coral reefs, swage water going direct to
> coral
> > reefs, and enlarge ports and channels close to coral reefs and the other
> > threats related to unsustainable development.
> >
> > The scientific community should be strong on this, supporting each other
> > with case studies that have shown the results of allowing the
> megaprojects
> > to keep growing on coral reef areas. Avoiding to only point out to
> Climate
> > Change (It is real and another effect of Pollution) to blame degradation
> of
> > coral reefs, when we all know for examples that a dynamite explosion to
> > enlarge a channel will destroy corals in seconds, that sewage,
> fertilizers
> > and pesticides keep producing diseases and high macroalgae cover, that
> the
> > operation of a cruise to navigate close to a coral reef and reach a
> nearby
> > port produce pollution to clean swimming pools and toilets, turbidity and
> > sedimentation.
> >
> > It is time to think about high and low tech. High technologies, not only
> in
> > our labs waiting for the evolution of corals to survive all sources of
> > pollution and destruction, we need to work with experts from other
> > disciplines, with technicians to provide energy alternatives, even closed
> > systems to avoid pollution direct to the seawater and air, and other
> > virtual tourism on healthy coral reefs to allow natural recovery.  We as
> > humans need to evolve with environmentally friendly behaviors to a new
> form
> > of life that is less destructive with nature perhaps going back to LOW
> > TECH, walking and biking more. Otherwise intensive experiments of
> > restoration in the same area where the development is allowed will not
> > leave any success surpassing the carrying capacity of coral reefs
> affecting
> > their potential resilience and serving as case studies for the Science of
> > Loss in Biodiversity and Life.
> >
> > Nohora Galvis
> > International Coral Reef Observatory, ICRO
> > Former ICRS World Reef Award
> > UN DOALOS Expert on Coral Reef Cumulative effects
> > Facebook ICRObservatory
> > Twitter / Instagram / Youtube ICR_Observatory
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
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