[Coral-List] Talk of a "Blue Economy" Indicates Denial of the Unfolding Mass Extinction Level Marine Heat Event

Sun Mar 24 06:28:23 UTC 2024

Just an addition to the heat waves, we just had massive bleaching off the
coast of Mtwara and Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park. This is not from the marine
water high temperatures, but the freshwater inputs following heavy rains
ongoing in Southern Tanzani and Northern Mozambique. The freshwater is
brought by the River Ruvuma and other seasonal inlets.

On the beach are massive heaps of bamboos and skeleton terrestrial animals
carried by river.

Corals at peril.

Mbije

On Sun, 24 Mar 2024, 05:36 Austin Bowden-Kerby, <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Dear friends,
>
> I don't think that all of us are on the same page as far as the new
> thermal stress levels and the reality of what has just happened.
> Addressing water pollution and overfishing and talking of a Blue Economy
> is not going to fix this!  The belief that coral reefs will survive if we
> simply fix the chronic problems of pollution and overfishing still
> persists, but it does not face our new reality.  A massive wreck has
> occurred: we can treat the broken arm later, after we control the bleeding
> from this gushing wound. Even then, the patient may not survive.
>
> As far as temperature, it is time to realize that we are living in 2044,
> not 2024!  As far as temperature, everything changed in 2023.  And what is
> so concerning is that no one can explain why, my own hypothesis is that
> AMOC collapse has begun.  The world was deceived at COP28 when 1.5C was
> still the mantra, when our planet had already clearly surpassed the 1.5
> target, and all the climate scientists knew it.  The mean temperature for
> 2023 is now calculated to have been 1.54 and for 2024 it is now averaging
> 1.7C above pre-industrial levels, and we even surpassed 2.0C several times
> this year.  We are clearly heading to 2.0C within a few years.  This spells
> DEATH to all coral reefs everywhere.
>
> For those who still have some living coral reefs, do you realize what
> going way above 1.5C means?  It means that we can now expect bleaching
> every summer everywhere and on every reef from this point out!
>
> Is any form of "Blue Economy" possible when 90-100% of the corals are
> dead?  Do we continue to dive on dead reefs and play on eroding beaches?
>  IPCC and others have clearly predicted that we would experience a 70-98%
> loss of corals at 1.5C, and we are considerably above that now.  99-100% of
> reefs are predicted to be gone at 2.0C, and we are nearly there.
>
> Pearce-Kelly et al. 2024, which I found in the link kindly provided by
> Martin at Reefscapers: https://reefscapers.com/links-2024/ quotes the
> below:
>
> 1.5°C - “...coral reefs… will undergo irreversible phase shifts due to
> marine heatwaves with global warming levels >1.5°C and are at high risk
> this century even in <1.5°C scenarios that include periods of temperature
> overshoot beyond 1.5°C (high confidence).” (IPCC 2022). Projections predict
> 70-90% coral loss at 1.5°C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018; IPBS 2019; Souter et
> al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022), whereas finer scale modelling
> projects a 95-98% loss (Kalmus et al (2022) and suggest  99% loss Dixon et
> al 2022).
> 2.0°C -: “literature since AR5 has provided a closer focus on the
> comparative levels of risk to coral reefs at 1.5°C versus 2°C of global
> warming … reaching 2°C will increase the frequency of mass coral bleaching
> and mortality to a point at which it will result in the total loss of coral
> reefs from the world’s tropical and subtropical regions.” (IPCC 2018).
> Predictions show 99% coral loss at 2.0C (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018; IPBS
> 2019; Souter et al 2021; Armstrong McKay et al 2022). Finer scale modelling
> projects 100% loss at 2.0°C. (Dixon et al 2022; Kalmus et al 2022).
>
> Based on a consensus quoted above, there is now a very high probability
> that most or even all of your corals will be gone within a few years.
>  Time has run out.  If we do nor realize the facts and act, we are in real
> danger of losing everything.
>
> The question we might ask ourselves now is this:  What can we do urgently
> to prevent the mass die-off of our corals?   Do we bring them on land- if
> so, then what?   We are encouraging Reefs of Hope strategies, with whole
> coral colony translocation from hot nearshore reef areas to cooler offshore
> reefs and from shallow reef areas prone to exposure at low tide to deeper
> and cooler areas, just moving corals a few kms locally, for reefs that have
> strong thermal gradients this may be possible at scale.  The many corals
> left behind serve as the controls.  We encourage moving whole colonies and
> maintaining the same N/S orientation, because that eliminates a major
> source of UV stress.  Based on just what happened in the Caribbean, we
> recommend nursery designs that can easily be shaded, should the heat become
> more intense.
>
> This is not the time for fragmenting corals and for "restoration" as
> once carried out, or for creating tree nurseries that can not be shaded.
> The goal now must be to secure as much genetic diversity as possible in
> preparation for the intense marine heat waves that will be hitting our
> reefs in the coming months and years.  We must do our best to keep the
> corals alive and in the ocean!
> https://oceandecade.org/actions/reefs-of-hope/
>
> I hope this matter can become the primary focus of the Reef Futures
> meeting in Mexico next December.  Will this meeting follow on another mass
> bleaching event in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific Oceans?  We need to be
> truthful if we want the corals to survive, and we need to develop
> strategies to help each other along.
>
> Regards to all,
>
> Austin
>
>
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>
>
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
> Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change
> adaptation strategies:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> <https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>
>
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, Mar 24, 2024 at 10:15 AM Mbije Nsajigwa via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> This is great.
>>
>> Mbije
>>
>> On Fri, 22 Mar 2024, 00:32 International Coral Reef Observatory via
>> Coral-List, <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>>
>> > Dear All,
>> >
>> > A new field of knowledge and practice for young coral reef researchers!!
>> > This message is to contribute to the recent question on the list about
>> *How
>> > do we prudently guide innovators, businesses, investors, decision
>> makers,
>> > governments, etc. to pursue a smart "Blue Economy"?*"  — one that makes
>> > sense biologically, socially, and economically.
>> >
>> > We should have the coral reef conservation objectives clear, updated
>> > transdisciplinary research, and the proper economic valuation of life
>> > (Including Humans) in a healthy coral reef.  How much does it cost to
>> > create and keep life? Trillion dollars to value a coral reef area will
>> keep
>> > the doctors (that support unsustainable development) away. Yes, because
>> if
>> > the developers know that it is not cheap to keep polluting and
>> destroying
>> > coral reefs and that there will be a governmental fine that they can not
>> > pay, and the stronger local communities will request politicians to act
>> > according to law, then developers will look for other alternatives.
>> >
>> > The ICRS and ICRI should write the guidelines for code of conduct and
>> > ethics for scientists, governments and enterprises. Nowadays, it is a
>> > business to hire restoration practitioners for less than a million of
>> > dollars to justify a permissive EIA and allow any coral reef
>> degradation.
>> > Academia is getting funds also from that "Blue Economy". Well, the money
>> > should be to save coral reefs, not helping the destruction continue.
>> >
>> > Keeping that in mind, we all know that it is scientifically correct to
>> > avoid more pollution and direct destruction of coral reefs. Therefore,
>> we
>> > should stop any unsustainable development that will produce
>> > environmental impact to coral reefs.
>> >
>> > The Blue Economy should evolve as it is possible, with advanced
>> technology,
>> > activities on innovative alternatives that will not produce pollution or
>> > destruction of coral reefs. That is why we only should look for the
>> > environmentally sound ones very far from coral reefs. It is not more
>> > acceptable that fake promises to save coral reefs with restoration
>> projects
>> > keep continuing the support the let us call instead of "Blue" "the Dirty
>> > Economy" the one that 100% sure will continue with business as usual
>> > destroying the remainings of coral reefs, if scientists continue being
>> part
>> > of the business biasing their knowledge by getting profit.
>> >
>> > Maritime industries should have alternatives in other places far from
>> coral
>> > reefs and with the best technologies that will not pollute water, eco
>> > friendly tourism. It is not possible to encourage massive tourism in
>> huge
>> > vessels to navigate close to coral reefs, swage water going direct to
>> coral
>> > reefs, and enlarge ports and channels close to coral reefs and the other
>> > threats related to unsustainable development.
>> >
>> > The scientific community should be strong on this, supporting each other
>> > with case studies that have shown the results of allowing the
>> megaprojects
>> > to keep growing on coral reef areas. Avoiding to only point out to
>> Climate
>> > Change (It is real and another effect of Pollution) to blame
>> degradation of
>> > coral reefs, when we all know for examples that a dynamite explosion to
>> > enlarge a channel will destroy corals in seconds, that sewage,
>> fertilizers
>> > and pesticides keep producing diseases and high macroalgae cover, that
>> the
>> > operation of a cruise to navigate close to a coral reef and reach a
>> nearby
>> > port produce pollution to clean swimming pools and toilets, turbidity
>> and
>> > sedimentation.
>> >
>> > It is time to think about high and low tech. High technologies, not
>> only in
>> > our labs waiting for the evolution of corals to survive all sources of
>> > pollution and destruction, we need to work with experts from other
>> > disciplines, with technicians to provide energy alternatives, even
>> closed
>> > systems to avoid pollution direct to the seawater and air, and other
>> > virtual tourism on healthy coral reefs to allow natural recovery.  We as
>> > humans need to evolve with environmentally friendly behaviors to a new
>> form
>> > of life that is less destructive with nature perhaps going back to LOW
>> > TECH, walking and biking more. Otherwise intensive experiments of
>> > restoration in the same area where the development is allowed will not
>> > leave any success surpassing the carrying capacity of coral reefs
>> affecting
>> > their potential resilience and serving as case studies for the Science
>> of
>> > Loss in Biodiversity and Life.
>> >
>> > Nohora Galvis
>> > International Coral Reef Observatory, ICRO
>> > Former ICRS World Reef Award
>> > UN DOALOS Expert on Coral Reef Cumulative effects
>> > Facebook ICRObservatory
>> > Twitter / Instagram / Youtube ICR_Observatory
>> > _______________________________________________
>> > Coral-List mailing list
>> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
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