[Coral-List] New Paper: Resilient corals in the Phoenix Islands

Wed Sep 15 06:24:30 UTC 2021

Bula Michael and Phillip and all on the Coral List,

I have a very different and less hopeful take on this Phoenix Islands
study.  The report presents data that clearly shows- but does not discuss,
the fact that these reefs are no longer typical Acropora dominated
mid-ocean atoll ecosystems.  There has been a phase shift away from
Acropora dominance, which apparently happened well before the data in the
study.  Less than 1% Acropora cover remains, and that fact should be a
cause for grave concern.  I do not consider this study evidence for
ecosystem resilience, rather I consider it evidence for a near complete
ecosystem phase-shift.

There seems to be an agenda to look at the positive and to therefore paint
a rosier picture than may actually be the case: that the pristine waters of
PIPA, a huge conservation area, are somehow more resilient than other more
impacted coral reefs.  I suppose we all need hope, and yes, at least these
reefs are still coral dominated.  But science needs to present the truth,
and the truth is that these coral reefs, despite being located in amazingly
pristine and unfished waters, appear to be massively altered ecosystems due
to nothing other than the severe impact of coral bleaching caused by
climate change.  But at least they remain coral dominated - for now.

Kiribati is the most impacted nation on earth from coral bleaching, with up
to 77 months of condition one and two bleaching since records began,
contrasting with a global coral reef sampling station average total of
around 15 months.  We have seen in our work this same extinction or
near-extinction of all Acropora species for Kiritimati Atoll in the nearby
Line Islands, which was hit even harder than the Phoenix Islands, and is
still dominated by coralline algae covered rock, not corals.  As Peter Sale
pointed out to me, once corals die out, so do the many coral obligate fish
and invertebrates, especially those associated with Acropora and other
branching corals. So this phase shift will have dire consequences to
biodiversity, and it really should be studied with more urgency.

My experience working on the reefs of Kiribati has rocked my world.  I feel
as if I have visited the future and have gotten a view of what is coming
globally.  I asked myself "what would I do, if I could somehow go back in
time to these reefs in 2014, or to 1988, if I knew what I know now?".   My
conclusion to this meditation was that there is much that can be done to
prepare coral reefs for what is coming, and to prevent the coming local
mass extinctions.  I now focus on the Acropora species and anything rare or
uncommon, I treat them all as threatened with extinction on a decadal scale
and based on scientific predictions.  I focus on within-reef translocation,
sampling the corals of the hottest reef areas first- the shallow lagoons
and nearshore waters.  I bring those most heat adapted corals out to cooler
waters and establish them within nurseries, in preparation for a mass die
off of all corals from the hottest reefs, as heat resistance has limits
that are going to be exceeded in the coming years.  If I had the time and
resources, I would also sample corals from the main cooler barrier reefs
and begin moving them hundreds of kilometers south in the southern
hemisphere, and north in the northern hemisphere, in order to save them
from bleaching temperatures, helping retain cooler water adapted corals
into the future.

By focusing on Kiribati, we can now project 10, 20, or even 30 years into
the future, and realize that one-by-one reefs will likely undergo such
phase shifts and species extinctions that we now see in Kiribati.  Coral
species will become rare or will die out, including both cool adapted and
heat adapted variants- but this does not have to be the case if we act
now.  It may be possible to keep all coral species alive into the future
and in a diverse and reproductive condition, thriving at elevated
temperatures and lower pH on reefs, and within healthy and ecologically
balanced patches, with all the normally associated fish and invertebrate
biodiversity contained within.  From these patches, resilience might
spread, and coral reef adaptation accelerate, or at least these vital
species might survive- buying time until humanity finds our proper
balance.  But now I am the one painting a rosy picture, and this scenario
will be impossible unless we seize the moment and develop and implement a
comprehensive and unified strategy before it is too late.

Kind regards to all,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
https://www.corals4conservation.org
TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>

Teitei Livelihoods Centre
Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
(679) 938-6437
http:/www.
<http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji>
teiteifiji.org
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/

On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 11:42 AM Phillip Dustan via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Guess this is what we call Evolution by Natural Selection - a classic case
> study.
> Nice to know that corals still have it within their powers to adapt to
> changes in selection pressure.
> If we'd only give them half a chance they'd be fine.
> As it is, they will most probably outlast humanity....
> P
>
> On Mon, Sep 13, 2021 at 8:18 AM Michael Fox via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Hi Coral List,
> >
> >
> >
> > I want to draw your attention to our recent paper, ‘Increasing coral reef
> > resilience through successive marine heatwaves” available here:
> > https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021GL094128
> >
> >
> >
> > Our observation that the effects of thermal stress on PIPA’s coral
> > populations have lessened over the course of three major El Niño events
> > raises important questions about the capacity of corals to adapt to ocean
> > warming. These findings complement a suite of recent papers highlighting
> > the ability of stress tolerant corals to successfully pass on beneficial
> > traits to their next generation.
> >
> >
> >
> > All the best,
> > Mike
> > --
> > Mike
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> Phillip Dustan PhD
> Charleston SC  29424
> 843-953-8086 office
> 843-224-3321 (mobile)
>
> "When we try to pick out anything by itself
> we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
> that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
> *                                         John Muir 1869*
>
> *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
> *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
> *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
>
> *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
> TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
> Google Scholar Citations:
> https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
> _______________________________________________
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