[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

Sun Nov 6 01:24:24 UTC 2022

Hi Paul,

Interesting ideas, but I really don't think we have reached the need
for cryopreservation just yet, or any of the high tech "solutions''.
I feel that we have a clear way forward working with Mother Nature to
accelerate what should be a natural process of adaptation, that took
place in the past time and again over centuries, but now the crisis is
compressed into a few decades due to human caused climate change.  She
needs our help!

Once we establish pockets of reproductive corals that are bleaching
resistant to 34-35C on the outer reef, it is unlikely that the
restored population will ever get hotter than that on the cooler
reefs, even in the worst case scenarios.  And as the cooler water
adapted coral populations are increasingly impacted and begin to die
out, hopefully these patches of bleaching resistant corals will help
mitigate the transition, by spreading resistant symbionts to the
adjacent corals, either to the newly settled juvenile corals or to
partially bleached adult colonies, possibly facilitated by vectors
such as butterflyfish through predation?  Once all the most vulnerable
species are secured into these "nucleation patches",  the corals can
then do their own thing: reproducing and spreading larvae and heat
adapted symbionts into the wider reef system, facilitating adaptation,
while maintaining these coral species in good biological and
ecological condition into the future.  We are not focused on
replanting large sections of reef, only establishing widely spaced
patches of multi-genetic heat adapted corals, in places with good
water circulation but also secure from major cyclone damage.

As far as shading reef areas to prevent bleaching, I feel that the
reefs are just too big for any widespread application, this only makes
sense in a resort setting, in order to maintain snorkeling areas for
the guests.  One problem is that bleaching season is also cyclone
season, so that could be a real problem.   However, if communities are
growing rafts of commercial seaweed, those rafts might be deployed
over the corals for the bleaching period?  The growing seaweeds are
known to increase the alkalinity of the seawater, so they might be
incorporated in thus way into a climate change adaptation measure for
communities- worth a try at least?

Projecting farther into the future, I think that the hot pocket reefs
of Fiji and the region will not die out completely, they will continue
to maintain a few species of massive Porites and the tightly and
irregular branched P. rus on the reefs, which is better than nothing.
 But then after 2050 or so, sea level rise should really start to
accelerate, and then the nearshore and lagoonal hot pocket reefs will
begin to cool off again, as the waters begin to deepen and tidal
circulation increases.  At that point, the original hot pocket corals,
as long as we have maintained reproductive populations on the outer
reefs, will begin to recolonize these areas, or they can be replanted
back to the original areas where they came from?

The crisis and urgent need to rescue hot pocket corals is NOW.  This
is our chance to save so many coral species from local demise, and it
is time sensitive.  So I believe this is where we need to focus most
of our efforts, at least in the IndoPacific region. However, there are
reefs with strong thermal gradients in Cuba, Belize and other areas of
the Caribbean as well, which might offer bleaching resistant corals
within the hottest nearshore reefs and worthy of securing?

Vinaka,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
https://www.corals4conservation.org
22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/

On Sun, Nov 6, 2022 at 11:17 AM Paul Muir <paularwen at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Austin,
> That sounds very grim- we really are at the "Noah's Ark" point where we need a "coral bank" of cryopreserved gametes/embryos from endangered species/regional populations as a last resort?  Although we don't have data as to which species are most at risk and the cryo is not fully worked out for many (any?) coral species yet- but cryo techniques do exist for a very wide range of other groups.
>
> Have you considered creating small refuge areas to preserve certain species/populations during the bleaching events? Natural shading provides good bleaching protection across a wide range of species (e.g. Muir et al 2017), so in theory floating covers similar to those used on agricultural and mining dams could be used to shade small (~1 ha) areas of reef just during peak bleaching conditions. Bleaching events are typically very calm, so the covers could be rolled out from dinghies in a semi-protected area of reef for just a couple of weeks during the peak. The covers would need to be anchored at each corner and possibly have an inflated margin (engineering TBD). The fabric is cheap, very tough and light, can be heat welded or sewn and is used by the square km in commercial greenhouses around the world (e.g. SolaWeave). Such a refuge area could mitigate against species extinctions and act as a reseeding area to enable timely recovery of the surrounding reef area. Colonies of the rarest species could be moved into the designated area ahead of time (once the idea is tested!). Seems like an idea worth testing, but to my knowledge despite all the nutty engineering and high tech schemes being funded at huge expense, this one has never been trialed? Way too cheap and unsexy- perhaps if we propose a nanofabric 3D printed under AI control........
>
> PAUL MUIR
> Independent Consultant
>
> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 at 10:34 pm, Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Steve and Paul,
>>
>> For Kiribati, the hot pocket "super corals" of the shallow lagoon on
>> Christmas (Kiritimati) Atoll all died out in the 2015-16 bleaching,
>> even though they were bleaching resistant, the water apparently got
>> just too hot.  The very few Acropora survivors have all been from
>> moderately warm reef flat tide pools, and only very few have been
>> found:  just two or three genotypes of only four Acropora species
>> surviving on Kiritimati Atoll, and another three species on Tabuaeran
>> Atoll.
>>
>> Because of this tragedy in Kiribati, we acutely recognize the
>> possibility that a severe mass bleaching may one day wipe out our most
>> heat adapted coral populations in our Fiji sites.  So our focus now is
>> to identify bleaching resistant coral candidates within hot pocket
>> reefs- reefs that often reach 33, 34, 35 and even as high as 37 in
>> places during summer.   Then we move samples of these corals out and
>> into cooler nurseries to protect them from possible death, should a
>> strong bleaching event hit, because they are at their upper limit.
>> Who knows how hot the reefs will get once the background water
>> temperature gets too high?   We have deployed temperature loggers and
>> we keep searching for more candidates, as we prepare for the
>> inevitable.
>>
>> This local translocation is under 10km, and serves to secure many
>> species and genotypes of "super coral candidates" of the most
>> vulnerable coral genus, Acropora.  Now that they are secure, we can
>> take our time figuring out how resistant the corals actually are.  And
>> because they come from rather yucky nearshore waters, we also suspect
>> that some are disease resistant as well.
>>
>> We are starting up a second site now about 160km distant, as we feel
>> that the clock is ticking for the hot pocket corals.  We hope that
>> others who work on reefs with strong thermal gradients and with intact
>> hot pocket coral populations, will consider this strategy.   The time
>> has arrived for proactive hands-on coral focused climate change
>> adaptation!
>>
>> Kind Regards,
>>
>> Austin
>>
>>
>> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> Corals for Conservation
>> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 1:35 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List
>> <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >
>> > Steve,
>> > Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
>> > bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
>> > species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017, 2021
>> > (1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?
>> >
>> > BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here, I had
>> > a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was appalling how
>> > little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
>> > corals around the world. We probably have already lost several species and
>> > don't even know it.
>> >
>> > refs
>> > 1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
>> > 2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353
>> >
>> > PAUL MUIR
>> > Independent Private Consultant
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi <spalumbi at stanford.edu> wrote:
>> >
>> > > Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were already
>> > > corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that change the
>> > > tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed the
>> > > adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is there to
>> > > support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you knew they
>> > > were there, what would you do with that information? What would the local
>> > > conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test these
>> > > corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
>> > >
>> > > Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
>> > > resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we have
>> > > the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe it is
>> > > only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save as
>> > > much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100 years to
>> > > grow back from, how do we do this?
>> > >
>> > > Steve
>> > >
>> > > *******************************************
>> > > Stephen Palumbi
>> > > Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
>> > > microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
>> > >
>> > > On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat as a
>> > > function of latitude,  Benthic surface area within the photic zone
>> > > decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes, and the
>> > > areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are mostly
>> > > the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
>> > > suitable as reef substrates.
>> > >
>> > > Bob Buddemeier
>> > >
>> > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also  have
>> > > very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
>> > > latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to support
>> > > that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
>> > > actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing human
>> > > impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
>> > > species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g. Muir et
>> > > al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016, Frontiers of
>> > > Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little work been
>> > > done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!! There’s
>> > > also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction from
>> > > repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
>> > > little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic bullets:
>> > > drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while the
>> > > basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology seems
>> > > to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
>> > >
>> > > Paul Muir
>> > >
>> > > Refs
>> > > Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
>> > > Madin et al 2016
>> > > - Frontiers of Biogeography
>> > > <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
>> > > 8(1)
>> > > response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
>> > > <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
>> > > 8(4)
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > > Hello all,
>> > > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
>> > > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
>> > >
>> > > suppose
>> > >
>> > > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
>> > > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
>> > >
>> > > telling
>> > >
>> > > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
>> > >
>> > > conservation
>> > >
>> > > efforts.
>> > >
>> > > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
>> > > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
>> > > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome?
>> > >
>> > > At
>> > >
>> > > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
>> > >
>> > > expansion
>> > >
>> > > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
>> > > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
>> > > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
>> > > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and
>> > >
>> > > on
>> > >
>> > > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
>> > >
>> > > working
>> > >
>> > > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by
>> > >
>> > > we
>> > >
>> > > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of
>> > >
>> > > it,
>> > >
>> > > achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
>> > > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
>> > > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
>> > > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty
>> > >
>> > > dire
>> > >
>> > > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
>> > > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless
>> > >
>> > > we
>> > >
>> > > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
>> > >
>> > > part
>> > >
>> > > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
>> > > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
>> > > to do, but an imperative.
>> > > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
>> > > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
>> > > Nicole
>> > >
>> > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > > STEVE:
>> > >
>> > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
>> > >
>> > > moment, I
>> > >
>> > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
>> > >
>> > > pollution
>> > >
>> > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
>> > >
>> > > not
>> > >
>> > > just as important.
>> > >
>> > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
>> > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
>> > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
>> > >
>> > > realize
>> > >
>> > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
>> > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
>> > >
>> > > will
>> > >
>> > > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
>> > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
>> > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
>> > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
>> > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
>> > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
>> > >
>> > > scenario
>> > >
>> > > it
>> > >
>> > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
>> > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
>> > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
>> > >
>> > > increasing
>> > >
>> > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
>> > >
>> > > addition
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Denny
>> > >
>> > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
>> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
>> > >
>> > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
>> > >
>> > > decade
>> > >
>> > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
>> > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
>> > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
>> > >
>> > > levels
>> > >
>> > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
>> > >
>> > > and
>> > >
>> > > 2026
>> > >
>> > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
>> > >
>> > > five
>> > >
>> > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
>> > >
>> > > (2017-2021)
>> > >
>> > > is
>> > >
>> > > also 93%.
>> > >
>> > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
>> > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
>> > >
>> > > that
>> > >
>> > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
>> > >
>> > > science
>> > >
>> > > community react?
>> > >
>> > > This paper (
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
>> > >
>> > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
>> > >
>> > > migration
>> > >
>> > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
>> > >
>> > > any
>> > >
>> > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
>> > >
>> > > to
>> > >
>> > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
>> > >
>> > > new
>> > >
>> > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
>> > >
>> > > the
>> > >
>> > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
>> > >
>> > > far
>> > >
>> > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
>> > >
>> > > and
>> > >
>> > > depend on it for our survival”.
>> > >
>> > > Regards,
>> > >
>> > > Steve Mussman
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > _______________________________________________
>> > > Coral-List mailing list
>> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > --
>> > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
>> > > Oberlin OH 44074
>> > > (440) 935-4014
>> > >
>> > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
>> > > Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
>> > > _______________________________________________
>> > > Coral-List mailing list
>> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > --
>> > > Nicole L. Crane
>> > > Faculty, Cabrillo College
>> > > Natural and Applied Sciences
>> > > www.cabrillo.edu
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
>> > > One People One Reef
>> > > onepeopleonereef.org
>> > > _______________________________________________
>> > > Coral-List mailing list
>> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> > >
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