[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

Sun Nov 6 03:22:11 UTC 2022

Austin
Ok, so idea of shades is to protect small populations of rarer species and
more resilient genotypes/symbionts to provide a source of propagules to
rapidly reseed a bleached reef and mitigate extinctions, rather than
protecting large areas of reef.

On the reseeding/refuge subject...the mid-depth reef 20-45m is hypothesised
to provide a bleaching refuge with reef reseeding capacity for 1/3 to 1/2
of shallow reef coral species (at least in the N GBR). Another largely
untested and potentially critical hypothesis- any evidence for this on your
reefs?

Paul

Independent Consultant

On Sun, 6 Nov 2022 at 11:24 am, Austin Bowden-Kerby <abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Hi Paul,
>
> Interesting ideas, but I really don't think we have reached the need
> for cryopreservation just yet, or any of the high tech "solutions''.
> I feel that we have a clear way forward working with Mother Nature to
> accelerate what should be a natural process of adaptation, that took
> place in the past time and again over centuries, but now the crisis is
> compressed into a few decades due to human caused climate change.  She
> needs our help!
>
> Once we establish pockets of reproductive corals that are bleaching
> resistant to 34-35C on the outer reef, it is unlikely that the
> restored population will ever get hotter than that on the cooler
> reefs, even in the worst case scenarios.  And as the cooler water
> adapted coral populations are increasingly impacted and begin to die
> out, hopefully these patches of bleaching resistant corals will help
> mitigate the transition, by spreading resistant symbionts to the
> adjacent corals, either to the newly settled juvenile corals or to
> partially bleached adult colonies, possibly facilitated by vectors
> such as butterflyfish through predation?  Once all the most vulnerable
> species are secured into these "nucleation patches",  the corals can
> then do their own thing: reproducing and spreading larvae and heat
> adapted symbionts into the wider reef system, facilitating adaptation,
> while maintaining these coral species in good biological and
> ecological condition into the future.  We are not focused on
> replanting large sections of reef, only establishing widely spaced
> patches of multi-genetic heat adapted corals, in places with good
> water circulation but also secure from major cyclone damage.
>
> As far as shading reef areas to prevent bleaching, I feel that the
> reefs are just too big for any widespread application, this only makes
> sense in a resort setting, in order to maintain snorkeling areas for
> the guests.  One problem is that bleaching season is also cyclone
> season, so that could be a real problem.   However, if communities are
> growing rafts of commercial seaweed, those rafts might be deployed
> over the corals for the bleaching period?  The growing seaweeds are
> known to increase the alkalinity of the seawater, so they might be
> incorporated in thus way into a climate change adaptation measure for
> communities- worth a try at least?
>
> Projecting farther into the future, I think that the hot pocket reefs
> of Fiji and the region will not die out completely, they will continue
> to maintain a few species of massive Porites and the tightly and
> irregular branched P. rus on the reefs, which is better than nothing.
>  But then after 2050 or so, sea level rise should really start to
> accelerate, and then the nearshore and lagoonal hot pocket reefs will
> begin to cool off again, as the waters begin to deepen and tidal
> circulation increases.  At that point, the original hot pocket corals,
> as long as we have maintained reproductive populations on the outer
> reefs, will begin to recolonize these areas, or they can be replanted
> back to the original areas where they came from?
>
> The crisis and urgent need to rescue hot pocket corals is NOW.  This
> is our chance to save so many coral species from local demise, and it
> is time sensitive.  So I believe this is where we need to focus most
> of our efforts, at least in the IndoPacific region. However, there are
> reefs with strong thermal gradients in Cuba, Belize and other areas of
> the Caribbean as well, which might offer bleaching resistant corals
> within the hottest nearshore reefs and worthy of securing?
>
> Vinaka,
>
> Austin
>
>
>
> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> Corals for Conservation
> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>
>
>
>
> On Sun, Nov 6, 2022 at 11:17 AM Paul Muir <paularwen at gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> > Austin,
> > That sounds very grim- we really are at the "Noah's Ark" point where we
> need a "coral bank" of cryopreserved gametes/embryos from endangered
> species/regional populations as a last resort?  Although we don't have data
> as to which species are most at risk and the cryo is not fully worked out
> for many (any?) coral species yet- but cryo techniques do exist for a very
> wide range of other groups.
> >
> > Have you considered creating small refuge areas to preserve certain
> species/populations during the bleaching events? Natural shading provides
> good bleaching protection across a wide range of species (e.g. Muir et al
> 2017), so in theory floating covers similar to those used on agricultural
> and mining dams could be used to shade small (~1 ha) areas of reef just
> during peak bleaching conditions. Bleaching events are typically very calm,
> so the covers could be rolled out from dinghies in a semi-protected area of
> reef for just a couple of weeks during the peak. The covers would need to
> be anchored at each corner and possibly have an inflated margin
> (engineering TBD). The fabric is cheap, very tough and light, can be heat
> welded or sewn and is used by the square km in commercial greenhouses
> around the world (e.g. SolaWeave). Such a refuge area could mitigate
> against species extinctions and act as a reseeding area to enable timely
> recovery of the surrounding reef area. Colonies of the rarest species could
> be moved into the designated area ahead of time (once the idea is tested!).
> Seems like an idea worth testing, but to my knowledge despite all the nutty
> engineering and high tech schemes being funded at huge expense, this one
> has never been trialed? Way too cheap and unsexy- perhaps if we propose a
> nanofabric 3D printed under AI control........
> >
> > PAUL MUIR
> > Independent Consultant
> >
> > On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 at 10:34 pm, Austin Bowden-Kerby <
> abowdenkerby at gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Steve and Paul,
> >>
> >> For Kiribati, the hot pocket "super corals" of the shallow lagoon on
> >> Christmas (Kiritimati) Atoll all died out in the 2015-16 bleaching,
> >> even though they were bleaching resistant, the water apparently got
> >> just too hot.  The very few Acropora survivors have all been from
> >> moderately warm reef flat tide pools, and only very few have been
> >> found:  just two or three genotypes of only four Acropora species
> >> surviving on Kiritimati Atoll, and another three species on Tabuaeran
> >> Atoll.
> >>
> >> Because of this tragedy in Kiribati, we acutely recognize the
> >> possibility that a severe mass bleaching may one day wipe out our most
> >> heat adapted coral populations in our Fiji sites.  So our focus now is
> >> to identify bleaching resistant coral candidates within hot pocket
> >> reefs- reefs that often reach 33, 34, 35 and even as high as 37 in
> >> places during summer.   Then we move samples of these corals out and
> >> into cooler nurseries to protect them from possible death, should a
> >> strong bleaching event hit, because they are at their upper limit.
> >> Who knows how hot the reefs will get once the background water
> >> temperature gets too high?   We have deployed temperature loggers and
> >> we keep searching for more candidates, as we prepare for the
> >> inevitable.
> >>
> >> This local translocation is under 10km, and serves to secure many
> >> species and genotypes of "super coral candidates" of the most
> >> vulnerable coral genus, Acropora.  Now that they are secure, we can
> >> take our time figuring out how resistant the corals actually are.  And
> >> because they come from rather yucky nearshore waters, we also suspect
> >> that some are disease resistant as well.
> >>
> >> We are starting up a second site now about 160km distant, as we feel
> >> that the clock is ticking for the hot pocket corals.  We hope that
> >> others who work on reefs with strong thermal gradients and with intact
> >> hot pocket coral populations, will consider this strategy.   The time
> >> has arrived for proactive hands-on coral focused climate change
> >> adaptation!
> >>
> >> Kind Regards,
> >>
> >> Austin
> >>
> >>
> >> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> >> Corals for Conservation
> >> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> >> https://www.corals4conservation.org
> >> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
> >> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
> >> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
> >>
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 1:35 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List
> >> <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> >
> >> > Steve,
> >> > Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
> >> > bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
> >> > species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017,
> 2021
> >> > (1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?
> >> >
> >> > BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here,
> I had
> >> > a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was
> appalling how
> >> > little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
> >> > corals around the world. We probably have already lost several
> species and
> >> > don't even know it.
> >> >
> >> > refs
> >> > 1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
> >> > 2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353
> >> >
> >> > PAUL MUIR
> >> > Independent Private Consultant
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi <spalumbi at stanford.edu>
> wrote:
> >> >
> >> > > Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were
> already
> >> > > corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that
> change the
> >> > > tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and
> seed the
> >> > > adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is
> there to
> >> > > support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you
> knew they
> >> > > were there, what would you do with that information? What would the
> local
> >> > > conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test
> these
> >> > > corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
> >> > >
> >> > > Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
> >> > > resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that
> we have
> >> > > the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough -
> maybe it is
> >> > > only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to
> save as
> >> > > much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100
> years to
> >> > > grow back from, how do we do this?
> >> > >
> >> > > Steve
> >> > >
> >> > > *******************************************
> >> > > Stephen Palumbi
> >> > > Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
> >> > > microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
> >> > >
> >> > > On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
> >> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat
> as a
> >> > > function of latitude,  Benthic surface area within the photic zone
> >> > > decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes,
> and the
> >> > > areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are
> mostly
> >> > > the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts
> more
> >> > > suitable as reef substrates.
> >> > >
> >> > > Bob Buddemeier
> >> > >
> >> > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
> >> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may
> also  have
> >> > > very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species
> is
> >> > > latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to
> support
> >> > > that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to
> show
> >> > > actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs,
> changing human
> >> > > impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that
> many
> >> > > species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g.
> Muir et
> >> > > al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016,
> Frontiers of
> >> > > Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little
> work been
> >> > > done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!!
> There’s
> >> > > also very little data on which species are most at risk of
> extinction from
> >> > > repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by
> very
> >> > > little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic
> bullets:
> >> > > drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while
> the
> >> > > basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation
> biology seems
> >> > > to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
> >> > >
> >> > > Paul Muir
> >> > >
> >> > > Refs
> >> > > Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> >> > > Madin et al 2016
> >> > > - Frontiers of Biogeography
> >> > > <
> https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> >> > > 8(1)
> >> > > response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> >> > > <
> https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> >> > > 8(4)
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> >> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > Hello all,
> >> > > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree
> that the
> >> > > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
> >> > >
> >> > > suppose
> >> > >
> >> > > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that
> somewhat
> >> > > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
> >> > >
> >> > > telling
> >> > >
> >> > > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
> >> > >
> >> > > conservation
> >> > >
> >> > > efforts.
> >> > >
> >> > > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the
> north.
> >> > > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about
> what
> >> > > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific
> outcome?
> >> > >
> >> > > At
> >> > >
> >> > > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
> >> > >
> >> > > expansion
> >> > >
> >> > > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this
> community is
> >> > > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local
> adaptation
> >> > > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’
> through
> >> > > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab
> and
> >> > >
> >> > > on
> >> > >
> >> > > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
> >> > >
> >> > > working
> >> > >
> >> > > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can,
> and by
> >> > >
> >> > > we
> >> > >
> >> > > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving
> most of
> >> > >
> >> > > it,
> >> > >
> >> > > achieve important advances. One might be better local management
> that can
> >> > > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation
> process
> >> > > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> >> > > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a
> pretty
> >> > >
> >> > > dire
> >> > >
> >> > > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> >> > > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating
> (unless
> >> > >
> >> > > we
> >> > >
> >> > > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that
> last
> >> > >
> >> > > part
> >> > >
> >> > > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from
> those many
> >> > > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right
> thing
> >> > > to do, but an imperative.
> >> > > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> >> > > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> >> > > Nicole
> >> > >
> >> > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> >> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > > STEVE:
> >> > >
> >> > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> >> > >
> >> > > moment, I
> >> > >
> >> > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> >> > >
> >> > > pollution
> >> > >
> >> > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they
> are
> >> > >
> >> > > not
> >> > >
> >> > > just as important.
> >> > >
> >> > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> >> > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are
> more
> >> > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
> >> > >
> >> > > realize
> >> > >
> >> > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as
> transplant
> >> > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
> >> > >
> >> > > will
> >> > >
> >> > > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and
> increasing
> >> > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> >> > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central
> Florida),
> >> > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if
> warmer
> >> > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point,
> the
> >> > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
> >> > >
> >> > > scenario
> >> > >
> >> > > it
> >> > >
> >> > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> >> > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> >> > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> >> > >
> >> > > increasing
> >> > >
> >> > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
> >> > >
> >> > > addition
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > Denny
> >> > >
> >> > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> >> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> >> > >
> >> > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> >> > >
> >> > > decade
> >> > >
> >> > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization)
> the
> >> > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> >> > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
> >> > >
> >> > > levels
> >> > >
> >> > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
> >> > >
> >> > > and
> >> > >
> >> > > 2026
> >> > >
> >> > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of
> the
> >> > >
> >> > > five
> >> > >
> >> > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
> >> > >
> >> > > (2017-2021)
> >> > >
> >> > > is
> >> > >
> >> > > also 93%.
> >> > >
> >> > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> >> > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
> >> > >
> >> > > that
> >> > >
> >> > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
> >> > >
> >> > > science
> >> > >
> >> > > community react?
> >> > >
> >> > > This paper (
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> >> > >
> >> > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> >> > >
> >> > > migration
> >> > >
> >> > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
> >> > >
> >> > > any
> >> > >
> >> > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
> >> > >
> >> > > to
> >> > >
> >> > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet -
> That
> >> > >
> >> > > new
> >> > >
> >> > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts
> of
> >> > >
> >> > > the
> >> > >
> >> > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
> >> > >
> >> > > far
> >> > >
> >> > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> >> > >
> >> > > and
> >> > >
> >> > > depend on it for our survival”.
> >> > >
> >> > > Regards,
> >> > >
> >> > > Steve Mussman
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > _______________________________________________
> >> > > Coral-List mailing list
> >> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> >> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > --
> >> > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> >> > > Oberlin OH 44074
> >> > > (440) 935-4014
> >> > >
> >> > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong
> stop"*
> >> > > Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> >> > > _______________________________________________
> >> > > Coral-List mailing list
> >> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> >> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > --
> >> > > Nicole L. Crane
> >> > > Faculty, Cabrillo College
> >> > > Natural and Applied Sciences
> >> > > www.cabrillo.edu
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> >> > > One People One Reef
> >> > > onepeopleonereef.org
> >> > > _______________________________________________
> >> > > Coral-List mailing list
> >> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> >> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >> > >
> >> > > _______________________________________________
> >> > > Coral-List mailing list
> >> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> >> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >> > >
> >> > > _______________________________________________
> >> > > Coral-List mailing list
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> >> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > >
> >> > _______________________________________________
> >> > Coral-List mailing list
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>