[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Austin Bowden-Kerby]

Dear everyone,

I have been reading the new Dixon et al modelling study on thermal refugia,
with predictions for up to 2C.

*Dixon AM, Forster PM, Heron SF, Stoner AMK, Beger M (2022) Future loss of
local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems. PLOS Clim 1(2):
e0000004. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004
<https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004>*

If this new modeling study is correct, there are no thermal refugia at 2C,
and so how does this impact the 50 Reefs model, which is now well
entrenched into the UN funding mechanisms and GFCR?  Beyer et al. 2018.
Risk-sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate
change.
https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12587

Assuming the new Dixon et al model is correct, it looks like we have to
drop the idea of refugia altogether?

One question that I have is where is sea level rise in these models?
Certainly the impact of sea level rise coming up even 10 cm will result in
the nearshore waters cooling due to increased circulation, and a much
greater rise is predicted, and so thermal conditions might in this way
become somewhat more benign?  Many shallow water reefs will also
experience huge gains in spatial area presently exposed at extreme low
tides, and where corals (if they continue to survive), will begin to
recruit and grow in the deepening water, and that might offer some relief
as well?  But perhaps it is too little too late to make any difference in
keeping corals alive?

If this is our new reality, then perhaps the only hope for coral species
and coral reefs is to begin local translocation, like we are beginning to
do: moving corals from hot pockets on reefs, where they are pre-adapted to
high temperatures of >34C, and out to cooler water reefs, before these
pre-adapted communities perish as the water in the hot pockets warms to
lethal levels.  While more funding for no-take areas and clean waters is
good, these measures alone will not save the reefs from warming seas.  But
perhaps a local translocation approach, when nested in these forms of
management, will help?

The challenge as I see it is to keep a viable population of each of the
more vulnerable coral species alive and in breeding condition on the reefs,
until humanity gets our act together, even in the worst case 2-3C
scenario.  We think we have found a way to do that through translocating
and securing pre-adapted, bleaching resistant corals, to where they have a
good chance of surviving the crisis.  This is not restoration, it is coral
focused adaptation.  Restoring vulnerable corals before the full impacts of
ocean heat waves arrive is a bit like planting trees in the face of a
firestorm- perhaps it is time to change approaches and focus on bleaching
resistance?  And I think many already have.

We are hoping that more scientists of good reputation will come on board
with this local (hot to cool) translocation approach, so that we might
launch this in the coming year as a unified, well-supported global
concept.  We are calling this "Reefs of Hope", which might be the very
first coral-focused adaptation strategy?  And this is already beyond the
theoretical, as we have active pilot sites in Fiji and five other Pacific
Island countries.  However, we could use a lot more scientific validation
and support, and so we welcome self-funded partnerships.

Thanks for listening,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands


https://www.corals4conservation.org
22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>








On Wed, Nov 16, 2022 at 4:06 AM Steve Mussman via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

>
> “ . . . the press doesn't work for us, they work for the whole population,
> and they
>
> have their own goals and incentives and MUST have freedom of the press . .
> . But maybe we can work a bit better with them”.
>
> Coral scientists have freedoms too of course. They can paint whatever
> picture they see (or want to see). I’m simply contending that the message
> getting out doesn’t align with the science. IF it is a scientific truth
> that continued inaction on climate change will seal the fate of the world’s
> coral reefs - that message that is not resonating. What is resonating is
> the idea that coral scientists are doing wonders and that we may be able to
> genetically engineer our way out of this. So, I ask what is the limit to
> our optimism? Are we confident that 2.0 C will not result in the near total
> loss of today’s coral refugia? How about 2.5 or even 3.0 C?
>
> “Many of us, probably most, are super frustrated that we are unable
>
> to move the needle on climate change or saving reefs. But the public and
>
> voters in particular, have a long list of higher priorities than saving
>
> coral reefs”.
>
> True, but how can you expect to move the needle on climate change if we
> keep reassuring the public that there are innovative ways in which we can
> continue to help corals adapt to a warmer future? At the very least the
> coral sciences should be doing both - advocating for action on climate
> change (and local stressors) - and promoting the latest restoration
> advances - with equal fervor - something you must admit, at present, is not
> being done. And you are right, saving coral reefs is way down the list of
> voter priorities. So, again the challenge is to find a more compelling
> message - one that links the loss of coral reefs to the even wider threats
> that unbridled climate change holds for societies at large. As devastating
> storms intensify; flood waters rise; wildfires rage and droughts worsen (in
> real time) you would think that both science and the media would be up to
> the task.
>
> Regards,
>
> Steve
>
> _______________________________________________
> Coral-List mailing list
> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list