[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[sealab at earthlink.net]

Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.

We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a decade (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial levels (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026 exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.

So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond. Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms that 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral science community react?

This paper (https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004) suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating migration is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be any debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach to communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That new approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of the truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very far until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet and depend on it for our survival”.

Regards,

Steve Mussman

https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085

https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication