[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Dennis Hubbard]

STEVE:

I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the moment, I
will set aside the also important issues related to point-source pollution
and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are not
just as important.

If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to realize
that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation will
increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this scenario it
is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of increasing
impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear addition

Denny

On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

>
>
> Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
>
> We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a decade
> (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial levels
> (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022 and 2026
> exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the five
> year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is
> also 93%.
>
> So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms that
> 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral science
> community react?
>
> This paper (
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating migration
> is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be any
> debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach to
> communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That new
> approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of the
> truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very far
> until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet and
> depend on it for our survival”.
>
> Regards,
>
> Steve Mussman
>
>
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
>
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
>
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-- 
Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
Oberlin OH 44074
(440) 935-4014

* "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
 Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"