[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Douglas Fenner]

The second article Paul refers to can be accessed directly at
https://escholarship.org/uc/item/81n5f1n4

The third at   https://escholarship.org/uc/item/6ww68517

both are open-access

Cheers, Doug

On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 4:51 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also  have
> very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
> latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to support
> that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
> actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing human
> impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
> species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g. Muir et
> al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016, Frontiers of
> Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little work been
> done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!! There’s
> also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction from
> repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
> little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic bullets:
> drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while the
> basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology seems
> to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
>
> Paul Muir
>
> Refs
> Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> Madin et al 2016
> - Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
>  8(1)
> response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> 8(4)
>
>
>
> On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Hello all,
> > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
> > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
> suppose
> > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
> > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
> telling
> > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
> conservation
> > efforts.
> >
> > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
> > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
> > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome?
> At
> > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
> expansion
> > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
> > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
> > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
> > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and
> on
> > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
> working
> > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by
> we
> > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of
> it,
> > achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
> > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
> > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty
> dire
> > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless
> we
> > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
> part
> > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
> > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
> > to do, but an imperative.
> > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> > Nicole
> >
> > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > > STEVE:
> > >
> > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> > moment, I
> > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> > pollution
> > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
> > not
> > > just as important.
> > >
> > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
> realize
> > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
> will
> > > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
> scenario
> > it
> > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> > increasing
> > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
> addition
> > >
> > > Denny
> > >
> > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > > >
> > > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > > decade
> > > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
> levels
> > > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
> and
> > > 2026
> > > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > > five
> > > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
> (2017-2021)
> > > is
> > > > also 93%.
> > > >
> > > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
> that
> > > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
> science
> > > > community react?
> > > >
> > > > This paper (
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > > migration
> > > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
> any
> > > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
> to
> > > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> > new
> > > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> > the
> > > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
> far
> > > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> > and
> > > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Steve Mussman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > > Oberlin OH 44074
> > > (440) 935-4014
> > >
> > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> > >  Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> > --
> > Nicole L. Crane
> > Faculty, Cabrillo College
> > Natural and Applied Sciences
> > www.cabrillo.edu
> >
> >
> > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> > One People One Reef
> > onepeopleonereef.org
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> _______________________________________________
> Coral-List mailing list
> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list