[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Robert W Buddemeier]

Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat as a
function of latitude,  Benthic surface area within the photic zone
decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes, and the
areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are mostly
the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
suitable as reef substrates.

Bob Buddemeier

On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also  have
> very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
> latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to support
> that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
> actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing human
> impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
> species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g. Muir et
> al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016, Frontiers of
> Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little work been
> done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!! There’s
> also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction from
> repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
> little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic bullets:
> drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while the
> basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology seems
> to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
>
> Paul Muir
>
> Refs
> Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> Madin et al 2016
> - Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
>  8(1)
> response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> <https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
> 8(4)
>
>
>
> On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > Hello all,
> > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
> > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
> suppose
> > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
> > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
> telling
> > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
> conservation
> > efforts.
> >
> > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
> > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
> > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome?
> At
> > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
> expansion
> > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
> > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
> > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
> > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and
> on
> > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
> working
> > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by
> we
> > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of
> it,
> > achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
> > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
> > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty
> dire
> > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless
> we
> > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
> part
> > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
> > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
> > to do, but an imperative.
> > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> > Nicole
> >
> > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > > STEVE:
> > >
> > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> > moment, I
> > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> > pollution
> > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
> > not
> > > just as important.
> > >
> > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
> realize
> > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
> will
> > > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this
> scenario
> > it
> > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> > increasing
> > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
> addition
> > >
> > > Denny
> > >
> > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > > >
> > > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > > decade
> > > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
> levels
> > > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
> and
> > > 2026
> > > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > > five
> > > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
> (2017-2021)
> > > is
> > > > also 93%.
> > > >
> > > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
> that
> > > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
> science
> > > > community react?
> > > >
> > > > This paper (
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > > migration
> > > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
> any
> > > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
> to
> > > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> > new
> > > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> > the
> > > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
> far
> > > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> > and
> > > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Steve Mussman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > > Oberlin OH 44074
> > > (440) 935-4014
> > >
> > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> > >  Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> > --
> > Nicole L. Crane
> > Faculty, Cabrillo College
> > Natural and Applied Sciences
> > www.cabrillo.edu
> >
> >
> > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> > One People One Reef
> > onepeopleonereef.org
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
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