[Coral-List] Coral reefs under threat

[Steve Mussman]

Hi Austin,

Speaking of wake up calls, it seems to me that the entire coral science community is at a crossroad.

How should coral scientists respond to the most recent developments along the Florida reef tract?

Do restoration advocates need to pause and reassess their goals as you suggest? Will major changes in strategy and/or methodology come about or is this latest bleaching event more likely to be perceived as a temporary setback (perhaps an anomaly) requiring nothing more than an added dose of perseverance?

Any number of events around the world (from the wildfires in Maui to ice fluctuations in Antarctica to the tragedy unfolding on what remains of Florida’s coral reefs) appear to be fulfilling the prophecies laid out long ago by climate change prognosticators.

Still, somehow, I get the feeling that it is not enough to turn the tide. To that end, there may be no percentage of coral (or sea ice or rainforest) losses that would be enough to convince societies to change their ways.

If we don’t head this (final) warning then I’m afraid that best we can do is to just hope that civilization gets it right the next time around.

Regards,

Steve Mussman

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On 8/11/23, 8:57 PM, Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

Thanks Sebastian,

All of this is on top of anthropogenic global warming, as additive

effects. The heat spike continues, and I wonder how the NOAA models will

be affected, as earlier this year parts of Fiji seemed to be under-warned,

as we had major bleaching at watch stage and death at condition one stage.

But perhaps that is within the normal limits of the predictive models?

Jason Box recently made an interesting Youtube video on the causal factors

of the global heat spike, that includes this report on anthropogenic

cooling due to pollution regulations on ships, but he includes other things

like increased solar radiance, brought about by the early appearance of

intense sunspot activity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYdvn2pGyOw The

five factors he discusses, plus the increased water vapor in the mesosphere

and stratosphere due to the Tonga volcano, all combine to create a net

heating effect- and this in turn appears to be slowing down ocean

overturning, as manifested by the record low Antarctic sea ice formation

and related to the disasters in Florida and perhaps Lahaina as well.

I just hope that all of this tragedy can become the final wakeup call!

Regards,

Austin

Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD

Corals for Conservation

P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands

Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:

https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf

Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change adaptation

strategies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA

https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/

On Sat, Aug 12, 2023 at 1:45 AM Dr. Sebastian Ferse via Coral-List <

coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Austin, Doug, fellow Listers -

>

> I'm following this thread - and the emerging situation in Florida and the

> Gulf of California - with increasing dread. It seems one additional factor

> is adding to the brew, on top of the unusual weather pattern in the past

> weeks, the Tonga eruption, an El Nino that is kicking in, and GHG

> concentrations in general: a reduction in ship emissions over the past 2

> years, leading to less cloud formation and increasing solar heating of the

> sea surface.

>

> https://www.science.org/content/article/changing-clouds-unforeseen-test-geoe

> ngineering-fueling-record-ocean-warmth

> .

> Apparently a perfect storm

> (ironically, since a near-hit storm may be the best thing to hope for right

> now...).

>

> Regards, Sebastian

>

> _________________________

> Dr. Sebastian Ferse

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> Social Sciences/Science Management

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