[Coral-List] Coral reef health over time vs human population trends
Douglas Fenner
douglasfennertassi at gmail.com
Mon Mar 27 23:09:00 UTC 2023
Fairer world could cool population growth
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=abad77fe61&e=190a62d266>
The number of people living on Earth could peak at 8.5 billion in 2040 and
decline to 6 billion by the end of the century — if there’s an
unprecedented push to eliminate poverty and inequality
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=6f10eb891d&e=190a62d266>.
The projection takes into account environmental, economic and social
factors that aren’t considered in the United Nations’ estimate
<https://nature.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=2c6057c528fdc6f73fa196d9d&id=643ae81898&e=190a62d266>
that
we will exceed 10 billion by 2050. By itself, a fall in the world’s
population won’t stop us from destabilizing Earth’s life-support systems,
says human-development researcher David Collste. “It’s what people do, how
they do it and how much they do it.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2366088-reducing-inequality-could-see-world-population-fall-to-6-billion/
A projection of how the global population will change by the Club of Rome
is far below United Nations estimates and numbers could drop even faster if
we invest more in reducing poverty and inequality, it says
https://www.earth4all.life/news/global-population-could-peak-below-9-billion-in-2050s
In the second scenario, called the Giant Leap, researchers estimate that
population peaks at 8,5 billion people by around 2040 and declines to
around 6 billion people by the end of the century. This is achieved through
unprecedented investment in poverty alleviation – particularly investment
in education and health - along with extraordinary policy turnarounds on
food and energy security, inequality and gender equity. In this scenario
extreme poverty is eliminated in a generation (by 2060) with a marked
impact on global population trends.
The authors argue that other prominent population projections often
underplay the importance of rapid economic development.
“We know rapid economic development in low-income countries has a huge
impact on fertility rates. Fertility rates fall as girls get access to
education and women are economically empowered and have access to better
healthcare,” said Per Espen Stoknes, Earth4All project lead and director of
the Centre for Sustainability at Norwegian Business School.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6253f8f13c707724ac00f7c1/t/6419d71f8e48cd520f7a6da1/1679415090947/E4A_People+and+Planet_Report.pdf
Amazing, this was put out by the "Club of Rome" which was famous for
putting out a report (in the 1970's?) that the world was doomed to have a
collapse of economies due to overpopulation. Like Paul Ehrlich's
predictions that the world economic system would collapse (as Malthus
predicted but had never happened), it did not happen. (Ehrlich made two
predictions and made the mistake of predicting the year it would happen,
didn't happen the first time so he made the second prediction, didn't
happen the second time either. Neither did the Club of Rome prediction.
Those are facts.)
Hey, this is all new stuff, and actually quite an opportunity. Here
is a concrete proposal that would not only greatly reduce poverty, but
greatly reduce population and likely impacts on nature.
https://www.earth4all.life/
Cheers, Doug
On Mon, Mar 27, 2023 at 7:43 AM Phillip Dustan <phil.dustan at gmail.com>
wrote:
> Hey Austin,
> All good words and kudos to Gene for championing African dust - as
> always. But Malthus was right many many years ago and so did the Club of
> Rome in the 1970's.
> K is for carrying capacity - plain and simple.
> No matter how we try, legislate, socialize, or try to
> involve sustainability, a blue economy, or any other concept, Planet Earth
> will only be able to sustain so many humans with room left over for the
> Biosphere to operate. Like death and taxes, there is no getting around the
> fact that there are just too many humans on the plane due to human
> reproductive success.
> Now, the numbers will decline due to demographics, war, and pestilence,
> etc but all of these make for a pretty hard landing.
> Lengthening the generation time can soften it a bit, but all in all the
> next 100 years are going to be awfully rough going for everyone.
> So rather than figuring out how many more people to sustain, maybe we
> should move towards working towards softening the landing.
> It might just be the key, worsening famines, preventing global riots, more
> terrorism, less autocracy, and so much more.
> Spread the wealth and work towards healing the planet rather than amassing
> a fortune.
> In the long run, money is a worthless human concept and a very misguided
> measuring stick of long term success.
> Phil
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Mar 27, 2023 at 1:22 PM Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
>> Good thoughts Alina and Doug,
>>
>> Alina, one thing to consider is that most of what you eat there in
>> Wilmington NC is imported- if the definition is across state lines- and
>> much comes from thousands of miles away.
>> However, the peoples of Melanesia that I have described earlier, are the
>> most food secure and self-sufficient people I have ever encountered, with
>> very low consumption of imported foods, less than 10% of their diet. They
>> eat what they grow or catch. No matter what happens to the global
>> economy,
>> they will be minimally impacted, but climate change has them in its
>> sights. The over-consumption and carbon intensive lifestyles of the rich
>> nations threaten their long term existence.
>>
>> The global economy favors the USA and rich nations, as they can create
>> trillions of dollars out of thin air, while poor nations have to work and
>> sweat for every devalued dollar they earn. The average daily wage in the
>> tourism industry here in Fiji is 15 USD per day- for those who can find
>> jobs, and with only a small raise in 20+ years, the purchasing power of a
>> week's take home pay is less than half what it was 20 years ago. The
>> university marine studies graduates who I have trained in coral adaptation
>> work take jobs as resort marine biologists for a mere 5K USD per annum.
>> The unjust global economic order is the driver of instability and
>> emigration. The developed world has all the advantages, plus is largely
>> responsible for climate change.
>>
>> The populations have not increased greatly in the rural areas, and as Doug
>> mentions, many have gone way down due to urban drift and emigration. As
>> far as overfishing is concerned, subsistence fishing is not at overfishing
>> levels, but adding commercial fishing to this in order to earn money for
>> essentials tips it over. It is especially easy to overfish the
>> invertebrates, the clams and sea cucumbers and lobsters, as they do not
>> run
>> and hide from the fishers, but the reef fish continue to be sufficient for
>> community needs in most places, especially where community tabu areas MPAs
>> continue to be respected, and where the people are too poor for the nylon
>> fishing nets. The solution within reach of the islanders is not birth
>> control, but rather training in alternate economic activities as well as
>> restoring customary management of marine resources, which our organization
>> is focused on. There is a new stirring among the chiefs to re-establish
>> permanent no-take areas that a hundred years back were scattered around
>> Fiji: the sacred reefs. The community based Tabu areas that we first
>> helped establish in 2000, tend to be opened every few years, and so they
>> are of limited effectiveness especially for slow to recover invertebrate
>> species.
>>
>> Yes the planet is diverse, but for the vast South Pacific region, it is a
>> lack of economic alternatives to fishing, plus climate injustice that are
>> driving the degradation of coral reefs, not overpopulation. The
>> uninhabited
>> and un-fished islands have lost most of their corals due to mass bleaching
>> and no other factor.
>>
>> One Planet, One People, One Atmosphere, One Ocean.
>>
>> Regards,
>>
>> Austin
>>
>>
>> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> Corals for Conservation
>> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>>
>>
>> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation strategies:
>> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
>> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>> TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
>>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> <
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> >
>>
>>
>> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>> (679) 938-6437
>> http:/www.
>> <
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >
>> teiteifiji.org
>>
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> <
>> https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail
>> >
>> Virus-free.www.avast.com
>> <
>> https://www.avast.com/sig-email?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=webmail
>> >
>> <#m_-1498893244216222551_DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2>
>>
>> On Sat, Mar 18, 2023 at 3:08 PM Douglas Fenner <
>> douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> > Austin,
>> > Thank you for this. I would add that American Samoa is the lowest
>> > level economy in the entire US system, it is poorer than Mississippi
>> (long
>> > the poorest US state), and Puerto Rico and every other state and
>> > territory. Yet, I'm pretty sure that it is richer (due to US federal
>> govt
>> > programs every state and territory in the US gets) than everywhere else
>> in
>> > the Pacific except for the other US areas and New Caledonia (which has
>> > significant deposits of nickel and is in the French system). The GDP
>> > (Gross Domestic Product) per person in American Samoa was about $6000 a
>> > year, last I looked, which is about the median for the whole world (and
>> > that's not personal income, only part of it is personal income). And
>> > without boring you with details, there are almost no resources here, you
>> > can't sell ocean water or volcanic rock, our most abundant resources.
>> Just
>> > 10 sq miles of nearly flat land. Situated near the center of an ocean
>> that
>> > covers 40% of the entire planet, nearest big university library as far
>> as
>> > London is from New York.
>> > Yet American Samoa has mostly high islands, as does Fiji and some
>> > other Pacific countries. But some are atolls, which are even more
>> > resource-poor. They have nothing above water but sand, and no natural
>> > running water. There is usually a freshwater "lens" in the sand,
>> floating
>> > on top of the saltwater that is in the sand. Has some salt in it, and
>> gets
>> > anything that goes onto the ground into it as well. If there are people
>> > around, you wouldn't want to drink it There is essentially NO soil, it
>> is
>> > sand with little else in it. People learned how to survive there.
>> > The disparity in incomes drives the movement of people all over the
>> > planet, to get better lives. Within countries, it has long been
>> expressed
>> > as urbanization, the move to cities for more jobs and services. In the
>> > Pacific, people have been and will continue to, probably at increasing
>> > rates, move to developed countries if they can. People in US-associated
>> > areas move to Hawaii or the US mainland. There are more Samoans in
>> Carson,
>> > California (near LA) than in American Samoa, and there are lots in
>> Hawaii
>> > and most west coast cities. People in New Zealand-associated areas of
>> the
>> > Pacific move there. There are now over 9000 people in New Zealand from
>> the
>> > tiny island nation of "Niue" south of American Samoa, and only about
>> 1500
>> > left in Niue. In American Samoa, the smallest island that used to be
>> > inhabited is 2 miles in diameter and used to have 150 people. now it
>> has
>> > zero. The next 3 islands up in size have lost half their population and
>> > now all the chiefs from there live on the largest island. The
>> population
>> > on the largest island (which has almost all the jobs and services, and
>> > where I and over 90% of all the people live) has long been growing.
>> Then
>> > the 2010 census reported that the territory had lost population, down by
>> > 5000 people. Most people didn't believe it. But in 2020 the next
>> census
>> > found that it had lost another 5000 people. This is typical of many
>> places
>> > in the Pacific. The reason I'm pointing this out to you is that this
>> may
>> > (may) lead to the lessening of population pressure on local resources,
>> such
>> > as fishing. In terms of local threats, this could be in coral reefs'
>> > favor. Of course, global warming, El Nino, heat waves, and bleaching
>> pay
>> > little if any attention to how many people live there, and the people of
>> > the Pacific caused a very minute fraction of the emissions that are
>> driving
>> > global warming that is destroying their coral.
>> > Yes, fishing pressure in developing countries is for food to keep
>> > people alive. It varies in intensity, but nearly everywhere there are
>> > people, the largest reef fish species are heavily overfished, that is
>> their
>> > stocks are well below MSY (Maximum Sustainable Yield). On the other
>> hand,
>> > most fish species on coral reefs are too small to eat, the largest
>> families
>> > of reef fish are gobies, blennies, damsels, cardinalfish and wrasses.
>> They
>> > are too small, not fished, and so not overfished. The pressure on fish
>> > depends on their size, for two reasons. First, the larger the fish is,
>> the
>> > more it takes to feed them, and the ecosystem can't support as many
>> large
>> > individuals as small individuals. Second, the payoff, whether it is in
>> the
>> > number of people that can be fed or in the money they can be sold for,
>> > increases with fish size. Fishermen are not dumb, and they respond to
>> > incentives like everybody else. The net effect is the biggest fish are
>> the
>> > first to go, the hardest hit.
>> > Those are fisheries in developing countries. In Florida, there
>> is
>> > a 2 day recreational fishing season for lobster, before the commercial
>> > season. Every year, about 50,000 divers descend on Florida and in 2
>> days
>> > remove about 80-90% of all the lobsters. Coral reef fisheries in
>> developed
>> > countries are mainly viewed as recreational. In Hawaii, there is also a
>> > segment of the fishing population who are not the rich outsiders that
>> come
>> > and buy everything up and just play at fishing for fun, but who
>> struggle in
>> > that expensive place, where they grew up, to put food on the table, and
>> > fish for that reason. So fishing on coral reefs can be very intensive
>> in
>> > developed countries just as it is in developing countries.
>> > Cheers, Doug
>> >
>> > On Fri, Mar 17, 2023 at 8:49 AM Austin Bowden-Kerby <
>> > abowdenkerby at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >
>> >> Dear Alina, Doug, and Coral List community,
>> >>
>> >> While population pressure is indeed driving so much of the planetary
>> >> level destruction and climate change, there is a very large disconnect
>> >> between human population and coral reef decline. The entire Pacific
>> >> Islands- all of them, including Hawaii and the island parts of PNG, US
>> and
>> >> French islands contain about 3 million people. This is roughly
>> equivalent
>> >> to the population of Puerto Rico. While the island of Hispaniola has
>> over
>> >> 22 million! Despite the low population to reef ratio of the Pacific
>> >> Islands, many of the coral reefs are overfished and badly impacted by
>> coral
>> >> bleaching. The overfishing is related to the fact that the majority of
>> >> people in the region participate marginally in the global economy, with
>> >> most of their food coming from what they can catch in the sea and grow
>> on
>> >> the land. Cash is very hard to come by, and saleable or exportable
>> >> resources are already badly depleted: sea cucumbers, tridacnid clams,
>> >> lobsters, etc. The poverty level for a family of 5-7 in Fiji is
>> $3,500.
>> >> USD per year- but that is used for statistical purposes only, as there
>> is
>> >> no welfare system. 50% of the population of Fiji live below that
>> level!
>> >> In the Solomon Islands, PNG, and Vanuatu, people are even more poor
>> and so
>> >> they still mostly live in thatched houses and use wood fires for
>> cooking.
>> >> If the environment can not feed them, they starve. Cyclone impacts are
>> >> horrific and outside aid often comes late and is insufficient. Some
>> remote
>> >> communities in Vanuatu are right now going hungry due to the two
>> cyclones
>> >> which hit two weeks ago. These people are not a burden on the earth's
>> >> climate, yet they are on the leading edge of climate change impacts.
>> >> Climate change and poverty and a lack of alternative food sources is
>> what
>> >> is driving coral reef decline here and in the undeveloped parts of the
>> >> world.
>> >>
>> >> I have just yesterday returned from Moturiki Island, where on most
>> reefs
>> >> over a wide area, 99% of Acropora corals are severely bleached- yet
>> again,
>> >> the 4th major bleaching for that site. Many of the corals have
>> started to
>> >> die, but fortunately due to cloudy and windy weather, and the two
>> cyclones
>> >> which passed to the West of Fiji, our sites at Malolo, on the western
>> reefs
>> >> have been spared a mass bleaching, and the open ocean temperature has
>> >> cooled down from 30C to 29C. Also in Moturiki, which is supposedly
>> >> condition one, roughly 50% of Acropora still retains the color of algal
>> >> symbionts on the shaded underneath parts, so we expect these corals to
>> >> mostly recover. Our strategy is to collect as many of the unbleached
>> >> corals as we can before the recovery of partially bleached corals
>> >> happens, to create a collection of known bleaching resistant corals.
>> >>
>> >> Because Porites and massive species are doing much better, and as
>> >> Acropora is the first group to die out due to bleaching stress,
>> Acropora is
>> >> our primary focus. Acropora is also essential for planktivorous fish,
>> >> which the Porites and other massive species simply do not provide.
>> >> Pocillopora is second in importance as far as habitat for small fish,
>> but
>> >> it is considerably more resilient than Acropora, and it tends to
>> increase
>> >> on bleaching stressed reefs as the Acropora declines. Measures of
>> coral
>> >> cover, like that reported by GCRMN, or bleaching reported as percent
>> of all
>> >> corals bleached- without any differentiation between genera, are
>> failing to
>> >> record the phase shift in species which is occurring on reefs
>> throughout
>> >> the Pacific region. The collapse of coral reefs in the face of climate
>> >> change is clearly occurring as a series of phase shifts in species
>> >> composition, but few have connected the dots of information as
>> monitoring
>> >> data is scant. My conclusion is backed up in some long term data
>> sets, and
>> >> comes from first hand observation and interviews with local
>> communities.
>> >> Fiji and GBR have fortunately resisted the phase shift quite well, as
>> >> Acropora larval sources have been retained, with a complete phase
>> shift to
>> >> Pocillopora dominance seen in the Society Islands, and now the phase
>> shift
>> >> is happening in Kiribati reefs and the Line Islands, with numerous
>> local
>> >> Acropora extinctions, and with low diversity reefs dominated by
>> Porites rus
>> >> or Montipora sp. I might add that most reefs of the Line Islands have
>> >> virtually no fishing pressure, and the stress is 100% related to
>> bleaching.
>> >>
>> >> Unfortunately this time around, the Lau island group of islands to the
>> >> East of Fiji, as well as southern Tonga have been severely impacted by
>> >> bleaching, and although there are no reports coming in yet, the stress,
>> >> based on the NOAA data, has been particularly severe. So I expect a
>> >> massive die-off of Acropora in both island groups. The problem is that
>> >> these reefs are directly upcurrent of the main islands of Fiji during
>> >> normal weather patterns. In the past they were likely the source of
>> >> excellent larval-based recovery after severe bleaching on Fiji's
>> reefs, but
>> >> now will that high resilience be changed?
>> >>
>> >> On closing, I am happy to report that the village communities just re
>> >> established their no-take Tabu areas in two sites, and the plan is to
>> use
>> >> the bleaching resistant corals that we collect, once the cool season
>> >> arrives, as part of a community-focused project to restore and increase
>> >> coral cover within the Tabu areas, planting coral fragments onto
>> A-frames
>> >> which help with survival and rapid growth, while serving as immediate
>> fish
>> >> habitat. Multiple genets of each species are planted together to
>> encourage
>> >> effective spawning once the corals mature. For those interested, more
>> >> details on these strategies can be found in my recent paper, link
>> below.
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Kind regards,
>> >>
>> >> Austin
>> >>
>> >> Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
>> >> Corals for Conservation
>> >> P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
>> >> https://www.corals4conservation.org
>> >> Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
>> strategies:
>> >> https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
>> >> 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
>> >> https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
>> >>
>> >>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> >> <
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
>> >
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> Teitei Livelihoods Centre
>> >> Km 20 Sigatoka Valley Road, Fiji Islands
>> >> (679) 938-6437
>> >> http:/www.
>> >> <
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >
>> >> teiteifiji.org
>> >>
>> >>
>> http://permacultureglobal.com/projects/1759-sustainable-environmental-livelihoods-farm-Fiji
>> >>
>> >>
>> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/happy-chickens-for-food-security-and-environment-1/
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >>
>> >> On Sat, Mar 18, 2023 at 1:36 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
>> >> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>> >>
>> >>> Here is even a better resource for looking at human population trends
>> by
>> >>> country, by age group and many more options. It’s interactive. Lots
>> of fun.
>> >>>
>> >>> https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/900
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> *************************************************************************
>> >>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>> >>> CISME Instruments LLC
>> >>> 210 Braxlo Lane,
>> >>> Wilmington NC 28409 USA
>> >>> AAUS Scientific Diving Lifetime Achievement Awardee
>> >>> cell: 910-200-3913<tel:(910)%20200-3913>
>> >>> EMAIL: alina at cisme-instruments.com<mailto:alina at cisme-instruments.com
>> >
>> >>>
>> >>> CISME IS NOW SOLD BY QUBIT SYSTEMS; https://qubitbiology.com/cisme/
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>> **********************************************************
>> >>> Videos: CISME Promotional Video 5:43 min
>> >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAYeR9qX71A&t=6s
>> >>> CISME Short version Demo Video 3:00 min
>> >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fa4SqS7yC08
>> >>> CISME Cucalorus 10x10 Sketch 4:03 min
>> >>> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12sAV8oUluE
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>> From: Douglas Fenner <douglasfennertassi at gmail.com>
>> >>> Sent: Monday, March 13, 2023 11:08 PM
>> >>> To: Alina Szmant <alina at cisme-instruments.com>
>> >>> Cc: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >>> Subject: Re: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the
>> Caribbean
>> >>>
>> >>> I certainly agree that "the more people, the more disturbance" so long
>> >>> as each person does about as much. Population is very much a
>> problem. But
>> >>> it is only part of the problem.
>> >>>
>> >>> Yes, population is a problem, no, there is no chance it will get
>> solved
>> >>> in time for saving reefs, but it is going to resolve itself without
>> much of
>> >>> any intervention, and that is already well underway. Meantime, you
>> don't
>> >>> mention over-consumption, and few others want to talk about it
>> either. But
>> >>> then, very very few people want to reduce their consumption, everyone
>> wants
>> >>> the economy to grow as much as possible, get richer, spend more,
>> throw more
>> >>> away. Economy size and wealth drive some of the environmental
>> damage, like
>> >>> climate change, plastic trash, and other aspects. Population and
>> >>> consumption multiply each other in producing environmental damage
>> >>> Technology seems about our only semi-realistic hope.
>> >>>
>> >>> As for population, birth rates are way down in almost all countries.
>> >>> The peak birth rate for the world was way back in 1968, it has fallen
>> a lot
>> >>> since then. They are way below replacement in China, Japan, S. Korea,
>> >>> Taiwan, Italy, and several other countries. Birth rate in the US is
>> now
>> >>> nearly down to 1.7 children per mother on the average, and
>> replacement is
>> >>> 2.1 (population in the US continues to grow, but slowly, due to
>> >>> immigration). Long been below replacement in most of what was the
>> Soviet
>> >>> Union, if I remember. Europe is going to lose population. Now, as
>> it has
>> >>> long been stated for Japan, the countries with very low birth rates
>> are
>> >>> facing mounting problems due to much lower numbers of people of
>> working
>> >>> age, paying to support more people at retirement age. In developed
>> >>> economies, children are expensive, women want to work, and child care
>> is
>> >>> expensive, so they choose to have fewer children. It is the
>> "demographic
>> >>> transition" and it is very widespread.
>> >>>
>> >>> Check it out: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8<
>> >>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncZW73QMBt8>
>> >>>
>> >>> The Great People Shortage is coming — and it's going to cause global
>> >>> economic chaos
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> https://www.businessinsider.com/great-labor-shortage-looming-population-decline-disaster-global-economy-2022-10
>> >>>
>> >>> "By the end of this century, the global population will have decreased
>> >>> by 1 billion people from its peak, according to a 2020 analysis by
>> >>> researchers at the Gates Foundation, and in the most extreme
>> scenario, the
>> >>> population could decline by almost 2 billion from where it is today,
>> to
>> >>> just over 6 billion. The German working population will have
>> declined<
>> >>> https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext> by
>> a
>> >>> third, based on the average scenario from the researchers, and in
>> Italy,
>> >>> Spain, and Greece it will have declined by more than half. Poland,
>> >>> Portugal, Romania, Japan, and China will all lose up to two-thirds of
>> their
>> >>> labor force, according to the projections. The looming population
>> decline
>> >>> is a wake-up call: Instead of the "population bomb" that some have
>> feared
>> >>> for decades, we will face a population drop, and it will have enormous
>> >>> consequences for the world's prosperity."
>> >>> China will lose half its population by the end of the century — and
>> the
>> >>> ripple effects will be catastrophic
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-shrinking-population-grim-omen-110400765.html
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3203833/chinas-shrinking-working-age-population-send-ripples-through-global-economy
>> >>> "China’s fertility rate decreased from 2.6 in the late 1980s
>> to
>> >>> just 1.15 last year, well below the 2.1 needed to replace deaths."
>> >>>
>> >>> There are articles like this popping up all over the web now.
>> >>>
>> >>> So, in terms of huge population damaging the environment, the future
>> >>> population decreases look encouraging, though it will take too much
>> time to
>> >>> get there to help reefs that are forecast to be hit hard within 2-3
>> decades.
>> >>>
>> >>> Cheers, Doug
>> >>>
>> >>> On Mon, Mar 13, 2023 at 7:46 AM Alina Szmant via Coral-List <
>> >>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >>
>> >>> wrote:
>> >>> Thanks Gene for once again weaving the data into a cohesive scenario
>> >>> that starts with: too many people doing what people do best....
>> disturbing
>> >>> the natural environment to grow food and other human life
>> necessities. The
>> >>> more people the more disturbance. And this has been going on for
>> millenia.
>> >>> After all, humanity started in Africa. Most of what you describe has
>> been
>> >>> happening long before the industrial revolution and the rapid
>> increase in
>> >>> greenhouse gas concentrations responsible for recent global warming.
>> >>> Anthropogenic climate and environmental change and degradation has
>> been
>> >>> occurring for much longer than the rise of global temperature since
>> the
>> >>> boom in use of fossil fuels. And coral reefs are not the only
>> ecosystems
>> >>> affected by human activity. If you could ask the Sargassum how they
>> feel
>> >>> about all this, they would tell us they love it! To paraphrase a
>> great line
>> >>> from Encanto ("We don't talk about Bruno"): humanity doesn't want to
>> talk
>> >>> about human overpopulation and the cumulative impact of now 8 billion
>> >>> people going about their daily business. There were only 2 billion
>> people
>> >>> on Earth 100 years ago. Not wonder everything is falling apart! Only
>> 4 % of
>> >>> mammal biomass is made up of mammal wildlife. What happened to all the
>> >>> wildlife? They have been killed off as food or decimated by loss of
>> >>> habitat. Their biomass has been replaced by humans and our food
>> animals
>> >>> (plus a few % of pets).
>> >>>
>> >>> Can't save coral reefs if we have a bigger structural problem to deal
>> >>> with. And yes, social inequality and inequity is a contributing
>> factor but
>> >>> not the main one.
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>> Dr. Alina M. Szmant, CEO
>> >>> CISME Instruments LLC
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>>
>> >>> -------- Original message --------
>> >>> From: Eugene Shinn via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >>> <mailto:coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>>
>> >>> Date: 3/13/23 1:19 PM (GMT-05:00)
>> >>> To: coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:
>> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >>> >
>> >>> Subject: [Coral-List] Explosive growth of Sargassum in the Caribbean
>> >>>
>> >>> As a geologist/biologist diving the Fla Keys and much of the
>> >>> Caribbean long before the coral-list, Brian LaPointe, and Marine
>> >>> Sanctuaries existed, I have watched corals diseases develop and other
>> >>> crises come and go. HoweverI do not recall a time when Sargassum
>> growth
>> >>> exploded such as it has in the past 2 decades. Of course there were no
>> >>> satellites for observing the explosive growth back then, nevertheless
>> we
>> >>> would have experienced abundant floating seaweed accumulating on
>> beaches
>> >>> such as it has in the past 2 decades.During these recent decades the
>> >>> explosive growth has been building year after year. Now the newest
>> area
>> >>> of weed forms a belt stretching from West Africa to the Caribbean and
>> >>> beyond and it keeps enlarging. The Amazon and other rivers have often
>> >>> been blamed in the past even though it seems difficult for those
>> waters
>> >>> to reach West Africa. Let’s see, can we blame ballast water and/or
>> >>> cruise ships? Climate Change? Upwelling? Cosmic Rays? There must be
>> >>> something out there that affects that region on a yearly basis.
>> Whatever
>> >>> it is satellite images indicate it is coming from Africa, especially
>> >>> during our summer months. I once read some technical papers that
>> stated
>> >>> the Amazon Rain Forrest receives its essential nutrients mainly during
>> >>> our winter months. It seems there is a this red/brown powder that
>> >>> accumulates on limbs and leaves high up in Amazon forest trees.
>> Because
>> >>> of it some limbs even sprout rThat powder has been shown to contain
>> >>> essential nutrients. What is it? During our summer months that belt of
>> >>> powder moves northward and forms a thin soil over the prevailing
>> >>> limestone of Caribbean Islands. Some even reach the Florida Keys and
>> >>> Bermuda. It forms a thin hard laminated red/brown crust in the Florida
>> >>> Keys that has been forming for several thousand years. That crust
>> >>> contains clay minerals not native to the Keys, or Bermuda. We even
>> have
>> >>> an agricultural area west of Miami called the Red-lands. I wonder what
>> >>> it is and how did it get there?
>> >>>
>> >>> Of course long-time readers of the list know exactly what I am writing
>> >>> about. Just suppose that stuff gets sprinkled on the water forming a
>> >>> belt that spans the Atlantic Ocean. I wonder if it might stimulate the
>> >>> growth of a floating plant held afloat by small gas filled floats?
>> >>>
>> >>> Why had it not affected the seaweed, and the corals, or caused red
>> tides
>> >>> in the past? Dr. Joe Prospero, now retired from the U. of Miami
>> Marine
>> >>> Lab monitored
>> >>> African dust flux at Barbados starting in 1965. That monitoring is
>> >>> on-going. There was little dust in the past when there was far less
>> >>> people/agriculture in the Schell desert of North Africa and less
>> >>> pesticides used to control Locusts outbreaks and mosquitoes. There was
>> >>> also a hundred-mile-wide lake Chad there in 1960 that has evaporated
>> >>> down to only a few miles wide. It’s exposed lake bed, and whatever had
>> >>> accumulated in it, is now blowing across the Atlantic. Need I say
>> more?
>> >>>
>> >>> After all these years I keep wondering why some organization has not
>> >>> studied the situation? We at the USGS monitored and cultured live
>> >>> bacteria in the dust and noted the presence of numerous viruses in the
>> >>> late 1990s. While the military followed our work, because of bioterror
>> >>> implications, there was little interest within our organization. Only
>> >>> the US Academy of Environmental medicine appreciated the work because
>> of
>> >>> the clear evidence of medical effects on humans, especially on
>> Caribbean
>> >>> Islands. Trying to understand why there was so little interest in the
>> >>> projectI keep coming back to the fact that no one is going to make
>> >>> money determining if that dust is the cause of coral, and medical
>> >>> effects. Who benefits if you can’t stop it? Of course the many
>> thousands
>> >>> with respiratory diseases in the Caribbean and Eastern Bahamas might
>> >>> benefit but does that put any money in anyone's pocket? And what can
>> be
>> >>> done to stop it? Oh Well, I will continue to watch and wait. I thank
>> >>> Doug Fenner for pointing out this latest explosion of Sargassium and
>> >>> will wait for his short reply. Gene
>> >>> _______________________________________________
>> >>> Coral-List mailing list
>> >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
>> >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >>> _______________________________________________
>> >>> Coral-List mailing list
>> >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov<mailto:Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
>> >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >>> _______________________________________________
>> >>> Coral-List mailing list
>> >>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> >>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>> >>
>> >>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Coral-List mailing list
>> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
>> https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> Phillip Dustan PhD
> Charleston SC 29424
> 843-953-8086 office
> 843-224-3321 (mobile)
>
> "When we try to pick out anything by itself
> we find that it is bound fast by a thousand invisible cords
> that cannot be broken, to everything in the universe. "
> * John Muir 1869*
>
> *A Swim Through TIme on Carysfort Reef*
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCPJE7UE6sA
> *Raja Ampat Sustainability Project video*
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RR2SazW_VY&fbclid=IwAR09oZkEk8wQkK6LN3XzVGPgAWSujACyUfe2Ist__nYxRRSkDE_jAYqkJ7A
> *Bali Coral Bleaching 2016 video*
>
> *https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxOfLTnPSUo>*
> TEDx Charleston on saving coral reefs
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iwENBNrfKj4
> Google Scholar Citations:
> https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=HCwfXZ0AAAAJ
>
>
>
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