[Coral-List] Ocean Temperatures Suddenly Over the Tipping Point?

[Risk, Michael]

   Austin:

   This is a list devoted (supposedly) to corals. Re the Atlantic
   circulation: in 1997 (Smith et al, Science), using data obtained from a
   suite of deepwater corals,  we suggested that the collapse could take
   place in less than 5 years. Of course, we don't know when the meter
   started running-we could be 4 years into this already.

   Mike
     __________________________________________________________________

   From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf of
   Austin Bowden-Kerby via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
   Sent: Sunday, July 9, 2023 6:14 PM
   To: Coral-List Subscribers <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
   Subject: [Coral-List] Ocean Temperatures Suddenly Over the Tipping
   Point?

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   Dear everyone,
   I am posting this because it is time for everyone to look up from our
   busy
   lives and face a new reality.  It looks like we have gone over a major
   tipping point, but judge for yourself.
   Something happened to cause the average temperature of the ocean to
   suddenly jump by about 0.7C from the 1982-2011average, and it is not El
   Nino. The graph is absolutely shocking.
   [1]https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/   The graphs are
   updated
   daily.
   Unfortunately as far as the timeline to 1.5C, all of the former
   information
   has suddenly become inaccurate. We went above the 1.5C threshold in
   June.
   [2]https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/copernicus-rec
   ords-first-june-breach-15degc-climate-threshold
   And these temperatures are now holding.
   This crazy and almost unbelievable jump in temperature appears to be
   related to the delayed impacts of the Tonga eruption.
   [3]https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-r
   isk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/
    But the increase is much worse than what these atmospheric scientists
   predicted back in January.  They say that the temporary heating effects
   of
   the water vapor in the upper atmosphere will last for five years, but I
   read elsewhere that it could be a decade.
   But my Question now is this: what If the Atlantic overturning
   circulation
   were to suddenly collapse due to this being superimposed on
   anthropogenic Carbon emissions?  And how long would it take for us to
   even
   know, and when that happens, how long will it take before the surface
   waters of the ocean warm up (like we are seeing now)?
   [4]https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/23/ocean-heatwave-nor
   thatlantic-uk-climate/
   The photos of severe bleaching in Belize, posted on Facebook by
   Fragments
   of Hope, are heartbreaking.  It started in June, and the only source of
   relief will be a near-miss hurricane or tropical storm.
   Have we suddenly fast-forwarded 27 years to 2050 conditions?
   Austin
   Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
   Corals for Conservation
   [5]https://www.corals4conservation.org
   Publication on C4C's coral-focused climate change adaptation
   strategies:
   [6]https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
   Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change
   adaptation
   strategies:  [7]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
   [8]https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-
   coral-bleaching/
   <[9]https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive
   -coral-bleaching/>
   >
   _______________________________________________
   Coral-List mailing list
   Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
   [10]https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list

References

   1. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
   2. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2023/copernicus-records-first-june-breach-15degc-climate-threshold
   3. https://www.carbonbrief.org/tonga-volcano-eruption-raises-imminent-risk-of-temporary-1-5c-breach/
   4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/23/ocean-heatwave-northatlantic-uk-climate/
   5. https://www.corals4conservation.org/
   6. https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf
   7. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
   8. https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
   9. https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
  10. https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list