[Coral-List] global threats drive coral declines of world reefs, not local impacts
Austin Bowden-Kerby
abowdenkerby at gmail.com
Thu Feb 15 17:01:29 UTC 2024
Hi everyone,
I realize that it is hard to get our heads around the fast that we are
sliding over a tipping point. The earth's thermostat, in essence, broke in
March 2023. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ Sadly, the
great dying of coral reefs that has been predicted now approaches, perhaps
as much as two decades earlier than predicted, as we are now running 1.7C
above pre-industrial levels.
It is clear that at >25 degree heating weeks, which some reefs in the
Caribbean have now experienced, and which Kiribati reefs experienced in
2015-16 (27DHW) will now become more common. Unfortunately these events
have shown us that it matters very little how clean and ecologically
balanced coral reefs are to their immediate survival in such extreme
conditions. Hopefully these factors will make a difference in
accelerating their recovery? So while it remains important to work to
clean up coral reefs and to work for balanced ecosystems, if that is all we
do, such passive adaptation measures will not prevent coral reef collapse
and the extinction of coral species locally, and this collapse will
proceed reef by reef, nation by nation, region by region. Conventional
measures at coral restoration will not work under these high thermal stress
levels either. This is a hard reality to face.
I am not advocating abandoning any of these measures, however, nested
within the passive MPAs, pollution control, and coral planting efforts, we
also must now add active strategies and measures to help save coral reefs
from collapse, coral species by coral species. This is what our Reefs of
Hope paradigm attempts to do with multiple strategies.
https://www.mdpi.com/2673-1924/4/1/2/pdf These strategies include local
translocation of corals from hotter to cooler reef areas, for reefs where
strong thermal gradients, to encourage local connectivity and symbiont
sharing, creation of in-situ gene banking in areas more favorable to long
term survival to help prevent local species extinctions, working with
surviving heat-adapted corals to restore sexual reproduction, predator
removal to prevent the death of coral survivors, and so forth. We are
gathering proof of concept data as we go, and we still do not know if this
will be effective, adequate, or appropriate for all areas. But it is
certainly better than sitting by and watching!
The paper also discusses the 50 Reefs Initiative, which has been used as
the basis for the selection of priority areas for GFCR. Unfortunately the
model is badly flawed, and has gotten their selection process for those
reefs most likely to survive wrong, as the 50 Reefs model does not consider
present conditions of reefs, nor best practices management, nor overfishing
and population pressures, and the model considers cyclones- nature's
biggest export of heat from the oceans to outer space, as more negative
than positive to coral reef survival. The recent spate of cyclones in
Australia clearly illustrates the positive impact of cyclones to preventing
mass coral bleaching. The time has come to either create an updated
version of the model - or for ICRI and GFCR etc. to throw it out.
With the global thermal anomaly now becoming the new norm, we should all be
shaking in our flip-flops wondering what the coming years will bring. Do
we stand by and watch in horror, or do we get busy doing what we can to
save as much genetic diversity as possible? The question to ask yourself
and others around you is: what options does our area present, as far as
habitats of lesser heat stress? Is translocation of coral diverse samples
into these areas possible? Can our genebank nurseries be created with easy
shading in mind, in case shading becomes necessary to ensure that precious
collections do not succumb to extreme marine heat waves? For areas with
strong thermal gradients and extensive heat adapted nearshore reefs, plus
extensive cooler water reef areas, much work is possible. But for areas of
narrow shelves, less options may exist, but even there I would at least
look into shading and experimental shallow to deep transplanting as a means
to keep the most heat adapted individuals growing in cooler water
environments.
The term "coral reef restoration" is not so appropriate for these sorts of
measures, this is better labelled as endangered species conservation, and
once we succeed in securing the corals, this work can lead to facilitated
coral-focused climate change adaptation, via transplanting strategies which
anticipate the worsening of the situation.
It is important to realize that we do not have to keep this up forever, as
ocean thermohaline circulation, OTC, is predicted to collapse, which
according to the models will cool off the Caribbean and many other reefs.
I believe that we are already sliding over that tipping point, as all
former hypotheses on what is behind the March increase in mean ocean
temperature have been debunked. Also the thermal change happened in the
ocean first, and only later spread to the atmosphere, so I believe that an
early OTC is the most plausible explanation. Now El Nino is predicted to
flip back to La Nina within months, and interestingly, with OTC collapse
modelling, La Nina becomes the dominant and permanent atmospheric
condition. Unfortunately, while OTC collapse may be a relief for coral
reefs, it is not a relief for human societies.
Regards,
Austin
Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
Corals for Conservation
https://www.corals4conservation.org
Film on our "Reefs of Hope" coral restoration for climate change adaptation
strategies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG0lqKciXAA
https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
<https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/>
On Fri, Feb 16, 2024 at 2:19 AM International Coral Reef Observatory via
Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> Dear Colleagues,
>
> The discussion about this paper from 2016 was held a long time ago. There
> are many assumptions such as, the protected areas are effectively managed
> and that isolated reefs have not any human impact. Nevertheless, with
> transdisciplinary research is possible to identify hide causes of coral
> reef degradat*n *considering all the human activities held even in
> protected areas, paper parks and isolated coral reefs such explosions to
> enlarged channels, direct reef destruction to enlarge ports, town sewage
> leaks going directly to coral reefs, mass tourism, increase in maritime
> navigation,cruise ship latrine washing, international industrial
> overfishing, ship groundings, oil and other pollutants spill and military
> exercises among many others causes that added to climate change (United
> Nations acknowledge them as Cumulative Effects) causing morbidity and
> mortality of coral reef organisms; accordingly to the intensity, frequency,
> duration and geographical scale of the local impacts many of which were
> allowed by decision makers and justified with local restoration projects
> and confidential contracts.
>
> We are writing a contribution to this knowledge in the following months.
> Therefore, when doing analysis of local causes of degradation, it is
> advisable to consider the history of local impacts as well as the impacts
> caused by climate change (global: the sum of local gas emissions
> pollution). The conclusions should be more adjusted to real scenarios of
> local case studies in situ, to improve the world coral reef management
> effectiveness and Global Behavior Change.
>
> Cordially
> *Nohora Galvis*
> *Director*
> *International Coral Reef Observatory, ICRO*
> *UN DOALOS Expert*
> *ICRS World Reef Award*
> *Facebook ICRObservatory*
> *Twitter ArrecifesCoral and ICR_Observatory*
> *Instagram ** ICR_Observatory*
> *Youtube ** ICR_Observatory*
>
> El dom, 11 feb 2024 a las 17:45, Risk, Michael via Coral-List (<
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>) escribió:
>
> > Doug, you should read that paper carefully. Absorb the statistical
> > manipulations and the assumptions.
> >
> > Compare that paper with the-literally-100's that have shown the
> > contrary.
> > __________________________________________________________________
> >
> > From: Coral-List <coral-list-bounces at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> on behalf
> of
> > Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> > Sent: Sunday, February 11, 2024 12:52 AM
> > To: coral list <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov>
> > Subject: [Coral-List] global threats drive coral declines of world
> > reefs, not local impacts
> >
> > Caution: External email.
> > I just discovered this article. They found that coral cover
> > does
> > not correlate with local human populations, a proxy for local human
> > impacts. That implies that world coral declines are primarily driven
> > by
> > global threats, not local threats. There are obvious local impacts on
> > corals that we do need to address, of course, the evidence of that is
> > abundant. But for the world's corals as a whole, not only is global
> > warming crucial to reduce, but it is nearly the whole ball game. The
> > results for macroalgae are similar, there is a statistically
> > significant
> > effect on both by population due to the large sample size, but for
> > both, it
> > is tiny and so ecologically unimportant.
> > They point out that it is very different with reef fish, local
> > human effects are the dominant impacts on reef fish populations, with
> > loads
> > of evidence it correlates with distance from humans, distance to large
> > markets, closed vs open fishing areas, etc. And of course, loss of
> > coral
> > and rugosity also reduces fish. So the results of this study are
> > specific
> > to corals and macroalgae and largely don't extend to fish.
> > Bruno, J.F. and Valdivia, A. 2016. Coral reef degradation is not
> > correlated with local human population density. Scientific Reports 6:
> > 29778, 7pp.
> > [1]https://www.nature.com/articles/srep29778 open-access
> > Cheers, Doug
> > --
> > Douglas Fenner
> > Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor
> > NOAA Fisheries Service
> > Pacific Islands Regional Office
> > Honolulu
> > and:
> > Coral Reef Consulting
> > PO Box 997390
> > Pago Pago, American Samoa 96799-6298 USA
> > Costanza, R. 2023. To build a better world, stop chasing economic
> > growth.
> > Nature 624: 519-521.
> > [2]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04029-8
> > Fossil fuel air pollution kills 5 million people world-wide per year
> > [3]
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-shows-disturbing-between-million
> > s-200000257.html
> > World's richest 1% emit as much as 5 billion people
> > [4]https://makerichpolluterspay.org/climate-equality-report/
> > Huge expansion of fossil fuels planned, will be very destructive
> > [5]
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrost
> > ates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report
> > "without policy changes, the world will heat up enough by the end of
> > the
> > century that more than 2 billion people will live in life-threatening
> > hot
> > climates" Will you be in that area???
> > [6]
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-sounding-alarm-dangerous-probl
> > em-123000792.html
> > World subsidies for fossil fuels reached an all-time high of over $1
> > TRILLION in 2022, the last year for which data is available. The
> > subsidies
> > MUST end.
> > [7]
> https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsid
> > ies-must-end/
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > [8]https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> > References
> >
> > 1. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep29778
> > 2. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-04029-8
> > 3.
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/research-shows-disturbing-between-millions-200000257.html
> > 4. https://makerichpolluterspay.org/climate-equality-report/
> > 5.
> >
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/08/insanity-petrostates-planning-huge-expansion-of-fossil-fuels-says-un-report
> > 6.
> >
> https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-sounding-alarm-dangerous-problem-123000792.html
> > 7.
> >
> https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/fossil-fuel-subsidies-must-end/
> > 8. https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
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