[Coral-List] Fwd: Re: New Science Paper Says Carbon Emissions [MORE THAN] THREATEN Coral Reefs
ctwiliams at yahoo.com
Fri Dec 14 13:59:28 EST 2007
From: Tom Williams <ctwiliams at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Coral-List] New Science Paper Says
Carbon Emissions [MORE THAN] THREATEN Coral Reefs
It appears to be FAR WORST than indicated in the
Subject Line Check the conclusions --- WHAT CAN WE
PARTIAL From Science
Science 14 December 2007: Vol. 318. no. 5857, pp.
1737 1742 DOI: 10.1126/science.1152509
Coral Reefs Under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean
O. Hoegh-Guldberg,1* P. J. Mumby,2 A. J. Hooten,3 R.
S. Steneck,4 P. Greenfield,5 E. Gomez,6 C. D.
Harvell,7 P. F. Sale,8 A. J. Edwards,9 K.,
Caldeira,10, N. Knowlton,11 C. M. Eakin,12 R.
Iglesias-Prieto,13 N.Muthiga,14 R. H. Bradbury,15 A.
Dubi,16 M. E. Hatziolos17
"Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is
expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global
temperatures to rise by at least 2°C by 2050 to
2100, values that significantly exceed those of at
least the past 420,000 years during which most extant
marine organisms evolved.
Under conditions expected in the 21st century,
global warming and ocean acidification will compromise
carbonate accretion, with
corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems.
[Line separation for emphasis]
The result will be less diverse reef communities and
carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained.
Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from
declining water quality and overexploitation of key
species, driving reefs increasingly toward the
tipping point for functional collapse. This review
presents future scenarios for coral reefs that
predict increasingly serious consequences for
reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal
protection, and people.
As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins,
scaled-up management intervention and decisive
action on global emissions are required if the loss of
coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided."
"It is sobering to think that we have used the lower
range of IPCC scenarios in our analysis yet still
envisage serious if not devastating ramifications
for coral reefs.
Emission pathways that include higher [CO2]atm (600
to 1000 ppm) and global temperatures of 3° to 6°C defy
consideration as credible alternatives. Equally
important is the fact that IPCC scenarios are likely
to be cautious given scientific reticence and the
inherently conservative nature of consensus seeking
within the IPCC process (53). Consequently,
contemplating policies that result in [CO2]atm above
500 ppm appears
extremely risky for coral reefs and
the tens of millions of people
who depend on them directly, even under the most
What do we do now?? Put on more sun block/lotion I
guess. Don't worry about the mooring blocks.
--- Mark Eakin <Mark.Eakin at noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > *** NEWS FROM NOAA ***
NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S.
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, DC
Contact: Anatta, NOAA Public Affairs, 303-591-2530
(cell, at AGU) Ben Sherman, NOAA Public Affairs
New Science Paper Says Carbon Emissions Threaten Coral
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