[Coral-List] New Paper: Resilient corals in the Phoenix Islands

[David Blakeway]

In assessing these reefs I think it's worth considering where they're at in
terms of their natural life cycle. Kiribati, for example, looks pretty
terminal to me. You could imagine that 1000 years ago it might have
resembled Tabueran (3.86, -159.32) and 1000 years from now it might look
like Washington Island (4.68, -160.38). That process (losing all lagoon
corals) is completely natural. And probably wouldn't be a gradual
incremental process (on our timescale); more likely the lagoon coral
community would undergo massive fluctuations in the terminal stage, while
heading toward long-term senescence. I agree that preserving Kiribati
corals is critical insurance. My point is just that--for reefs in
general--we shouldn't expect good stable coral cover and diversity in
late-stage reefs approaching sea level.