[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Steve Mussman]

Steve,

The coral science community is already doing commendable work in the areas you mentioned, but perhaps some have lost sight of the overall objective that you referred to - “. . . save as much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100 years to grow back from . . . “

Heat resistance may be widespread, but if it is true that even reefs currently labeled as thermal refugia are likely to succumb in a 2.0C world, doesn’t that suggest that the best chance we have for corals going forward is to do whatever we can to avoid getting to the 2.0C threshold? Although the coral science community is powerless to change the paradigm themselves, they can certainly do a lot more to raise awareness of the perils that lie ahead. We’ve talked endlessly here on CL over the years about the ineffectiveness of mixed messaging, yet the coral sciences still persist in promoting concepts that all but ignore the underlining imperative need to address the major stressors. In addition, perhaps the realization that 2.0C is not an outlandish projection given our current trajectory, points to the need to put additional emphasis on creating a network of coral repositories so that future generations will at least be provided the opportunity to initiate restorations if conditions allow and they choose to do so.

Regards,

Steve Mussman

On 11/2/22, 11:40 PM, Stephen Palumbi via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were already corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that change the tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed the adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is there to support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you knew they were there, what would you do with that information? What would the local conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test these corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?

Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we have the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe it is only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save as much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100 years to grow back from, how do we do this?

Steve

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Stephen Palumbi

Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science

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