[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore
Steve Mussman
sealab at earthlink.net
Wed Nov 9 14:02:22 UTC 2022
“I tend to think that the media have done a great job of informing the
public about the dire state of coral reefs. I can't turn around without
another article about death and destruction of coral reefs. Some people
complain about all the "gloom and doom." That's what they are referring
to. I think the public is probably pretty well alerted to the reef crisis . . . “
Hi Doug,
Never thought I’d disagree with anything that you have to say, but I have to take issue with how you characterized the media and their messaging relating to coral reefs. The public might be (fairly) well aware of the fact that corals have been in decline. They may even of heard about “bleaching”. Maybe some have come to believe that sunscreens can be harmful. But what else do they know? More importantly, what should they know?
I would argue that the most important message to get across would sound something like this: (taken from the conclusion of “Enhancing the heat tolerance of reef-building corals to future warming” https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abg6070) “While such intervention may benefit specific populations, immediate and ongoing actions that limit the magnitude of climate impacts and local stressors are necessary for coral reef ecosystems to persist into the future.” - Seems like every paper I read on the subject ends on a note like this, but it is a sentence or two at the end of a lengthy paper - as if it were a post script, not an essential point. I’m arguing that it is the essential point and that science and the media need to start expressing it as such, not as an afterthought or a footnote. And I get it about gloom and doom, but here’s the rub - how can we expect to build the political will to take on climate change (and other major stressors) if we continue to put the emphasis on how we are developing heat resistant super corals that we hope to be able to outplant on ecosystem-wide scales in the near future?
So, in the end, is the media and the coral science community disseminating the right message about coral reefs?
This thread started with Franziska’s plea that it is time for a bold, new message. For telling the whole truth, not sugar coating it was the way Peter Sale put it. I agree with them and I’m guessing that you do too.
Best regards,
Steve
Sent from EarthLink Mobile mail
On 11/7/22, 3:36 PM, Douglas Fenner via Coral-List <coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
Paul,
Great post and ideas! Please give us the reference to the article you
refer to.
There is loads of evidence that reducing light levels reduces
bleaching. It seemed like everybody just assumed that it would be
impossible to shade corals out in the wild, wind and that waves will rip up
anything we put out. So nobody even tried to shade corals. But I think
you make a very good case that if done right, it could well work very
well. Thank you for this.
Shouldn't we at least TRY???
I tend to think that the media have done a great job of informing the
public about the dire state of coral reefs. I can't turn around without
another article about death and destruction of coral reefs. Some people
complain about all the "gloom and doom." That's what they are referring
to. I think the public is probably pretty well alerted to the reef crisis,
just as they are of the destruction of natural forests and the hunting and
killing of whales to near extinction. The public has huge influence over
governments, many politicians tremble in fear at the possibility that the
public may turn against them and vote them out. It happens frequently. So
the public has a lot of power. But it is also the case that the public
wants jobs, prosperity, more money (to buy stuff they don't need in the
US!). Companies, big corporations, and the wealthy use that to push for
projects and reductions of restrictions, some of which may impact the
environment. They say "This new project will produce lots of jobs!!" and
everybody likes that. Plus, there are a lot of other important things the
public is concerned about, and Europe has no coral reefs and the US doesn't
have much and they are far from the public. So trying to save the
environment is an endless battle, back and forth.
Meantime, I found an interesting and somewhat scary article recently:
Howells, E. J., Vaughan, G. O., Work, T. M., Burt, J. A., and Abrego, D.
2020. Annual
outbreaks of coral disease coincide with extreme seasonal
warming. *Coral Reefs*
39: 771-781.
Cheers, Doug
On Mon, Nov 7, 2022 at 2:52 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> Austin,
> That sounds very grim- we really are at the "Noah's Ark" point where we
> need a "coral bank" of cryopreserved gametes/embryos from endangered
> species/regional populations as a last resort? Although we don't have data
> as to which species are most at risk and the cryo is not fully worked out
> for many (any?) coral species yet- but cryo techniques do exist for a very
> wide range of other groups.
>
> Have you considered creating small refuge areas to preserve certain
> species/populations during the bleaching events? Natural shading provides
> good bleaching protection across a wide range of species (e.g. Muir et al
> 2017), so in theory floating covers similar to those used on agricultural
> and mining dams could be used to shade small (~1 ha) areas of reef just
> during peak bleaching conditions. Bleaching events are typically very calm,
> so the covers could be rolled out from dinghies in a semi-protected area of
> reef for just a couple of weeks during the peak. The covers would need to
> be anchored at each corner and possibly have an inflated margin
> (engineering TBD). The fabric is cheap, very tough and light, can be heat
> welded or sewn and is used by the square km in commercial greenhouses
> around the world (e.g. SolaWeave). Such a refuge area could mitigate
> against species extinctions and act as a reseeding area to enable timely
> recovery of the surrounding reef area. Colonies of the rarest species could
> be moved into the designated area ahead of time (once the idea is tested!).
> Seems like an idea worth testing, but to my knowledge despite all the nutty
> engineering and high tech schemes being funded at huge expense, this one
> has never been trialed? Way too cheap and unsexy- perhaps if we propose a
> nanofabric 3D printed under AI control........
>
> PAUL MUIR
> Independent Consultant
>
> On Sat, 5 Nov 2022 at 10:34 pm, Austin Bowden-Kerby <
> abowdenkerby at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > Steve and Paul,
> >
> > For Kiribati, the hot pocket "super corals" of the shallow lagoon on
> > Christmas (Kiritimati) Atoll all died out in the 2015-16 bleaching,
> > even though they were bleaching resistant, the water apparently got
> > just too hot. The very few Acropora survivors have all been from
> > moderately warm reef flat tide pools, and only very few have been
> > found: just two or three genotypes of only four Acropora species
> > surviving on Kiritimati Atoll, and another three species on Tabuaeran
> > Atoll.
> >
> > Because of this tragedy in Kiribati, we acutely recognize the
> > possibility that a severe mass bleaching may one day wipe out our most
> > heat adapted coral populations in our Fiji sites. So our focus now is
> > to identify bleaching resistant coral candidates within hot pocket
> > reefs- reefs that often reach 33, 34, 35 and even as high as 37 in
> > places during summer. Then we move samples of these corals out and
> > into cooler nurseries to protect them from possible death, should a
> > strong bleaching event hit, because they are at their upper limit.
> > Who knows how hot the reefs will get once the background water
> > temperature gets too high? We have deployed temperature loggers and
> > we keep searching for more candidates, as we prepare for the
> > inevitable.
> >
> > This local translocation is under 10km, and serves to secure many
> > species and genotypes of "super coral candidates" of the most
> > vulnerable coral genus, Acropora. Now that they are secure, we can
> > take our time figuring out how resistant the corals actually are. And
> > because they come from rather yucky nearshore waters, we also suspect
> > that some are disease resistant as well.
> >
> > We are starting up a second site now about 160km distant, as we feel
> > that the clock is ticking for the hot pocket corals. We hope that
> > others who work on reefs with strong thermal gradients and with intact
> > hot pocket coral populations, will consider this strategy. The time
> > has arrived for proactive hands-on coral focused climate change
> > adaptation!
> >
> > Kind Regards,
> >
> > Austin
> >
> >
> > Austin Bowden-Kerby, PhD
> > Corals for Conservation
> > P.O. Box 4649 Samabula, Fiji Islands
> > https://www.corals4conservation.org
> > 22 minute summary of climate change adaptation strategies
> > https://youtu.be/arkeSGXfKMk
> > TEDx talk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PRLJ8zDm0U
> >
> >
> https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/emergency-response-to-massive-coral-bleaching/
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Fri, Nov 4, 2022 at 1:35 AM Paul Muir via Coral-List
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > Steve,
> > > Nice hypothesis, but sadly we have very little data on variation in
> > > bleaching susceptibility between species, let alone within
> > > species/populations? Pretty basic data to get e.g. Muir et al 2017,
> 2021
> > > (1,2) and requires only a tiny fraction of one magic bullet budget?
> > >
> > > BTW it would be great for someone from the Red List to chip in here, I
> > had
> > > a little to do with the recent revision for corals and it was appalling
> > how
> > > little data we have on the status/vulnerability of the ~750 species of
> > > corals around the world. We probably have already lost several species
> > and
> > > don't even know it.
> > >
> > > refs
> > > 1. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2017.1551
> > > 2. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/geb.13353
> > >
> > > PAUL MUIR
> > > Independent Private Consultant
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > On Thu, 3 Nov 2022 at 13:40, Stephen Palumbi
> > wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi all - Suppose on every reef that Adele et al. looked there were
> > already
> > > > corals that could survive and reproduce at +1.5°. Wouldn’t that
> change
> > the
> > > > tone of this discussion towards a strategy that would favor and seed
> > the
> > > > adaptation needed? So this is my simple question. What evidence is
> > there to
> > > > support the existence of these super corals? Or refute it? If you
> knew
> > they
> > > > were there, what would you do with that information? What would the
> > local
> > > > conservation managers and community leaders do? How would you test
> > these
> > > > corals in 10s of reefs, then 100s, then 1000s?
> > > >
> > > > Our work - and others who’ve been testing corals - suggests heat
> > > > resistance is widespread. That is a huge asset for the future that we
> > have
> > > > the opportunity to use. Maybe current resistance isn’t enough - maybe
> > it is
> > > > only enough between but not within species. But if our job is to save
> > as
> > > > much as possible of coral reefs so that there is something in 100
> > years to
> > > > grow back from, how do we do this?
> > > >
> > > > Steve
> > > >
> > > > *******************************************
> > > > Stephen Palumbi
> > > > Jane and Marshall Steel Jr. Professor of Marine Science
> > > > microdocumentaries at http://microdocs.org
> > > >
> > > > On Oct 30, 2022, at 8:59 PM, Robert W Buddemeier via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Geomorphology is also a major constraint on potential coral habitat
> as
> > a
> > > > function of latitude, Benthic surface area within the photic zone
> > > > decreases rapidly as you move from the tropics to higher latitudes,
> > and the
> > > > areas where shallow water will increase due to sea level rise are
> > mostly
> > > > the flat sedimentary coastal plains rather than the rocky coasts more
> > > > suitable as reef substrates.
> > > >
> > > > Bob Buddemeier
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 8:50 PM Paul Muir via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also
> > have
> > > > very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
> > > > latitudinally limited by temperature and very little good data to
> > support
> > > > that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
> > > > actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing
> > human
> > > > impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
> > > > species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g.
> > Muir et
> > > > al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016,
> > Frontiers of
> > > > Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little
> work
> > been
> > > > done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!!
> There’s
> > > > also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction
> > from
> > > > repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
> > > > little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic
> > bullets:
> > > > drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while
> the
> > > > basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology
> > seems
> > > > to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?
> > > >
> > > > Paul Muir
> > > >
> > > > Refs
> > > > Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
> > > > Madin et al 2016
> > > > - Frontiers of Biogeography
> > > > <
> > https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
> >
> > > > 8(1)
> > > > response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
> > > > <
> > https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596
> >
> > > > 8(4)
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > Hello all,
> > > > I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that
> > the
> > > > trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I
> > > >
> > > > suppose
> > > >
> > > > there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that
> > somewhat
> > > > gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be
> > > >
> > > > telling
> > > >
> > > > the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our
> > > >
> > > > conservation
> > > >
> > > > efforts.
> > > >
> > > > But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the
> > north.
> > > > In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about
> > what
> > > > would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific
> outcome?
> > > >
> > > > At
> > > >
> > > > what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range
> > > >
> > > > expansion
> > > >
> > > > is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community
> > is
> > > > actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local
> adaptation
> > > > happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’
> > through
> > > > genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab
> and
> > > >
> > > > on
> > > >
> > > > reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By
> > > >
> > > > working
> > > >
> > > > authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and
> > by
> > > >
> > > > we
> > > >
> > > > I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most
> of
> > > >
> > > > it,
> > > >
> > > > achieve important advances. One might be better local management that
> > can
> > > > buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation
> process
> > > > (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> > > > So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a
> pretty
> > > >
> > > > dire
> > > >
> > > > backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> > > > stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating
> > (unless
> > > >
> > > > we
> > > >
> > > > look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last
> > > >
> > > > part
> > > >
> > > > we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those
> > many
> > > > angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right
> > thing
> > > > to do, but an imperative.
> > > > In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> > > > persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> > > > Nicole
> > > >
> > > > On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > > STEVE:
> > > >
> > > > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> > > >
> > > > moment, I
> > > >
> > > > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> > > >
> > > > pollution
> > > >
> > > > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they
> are
> > > >
> > > > not
> > > >
> > > > just as important.
> > > >
> > > > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > > > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are
> more
> > > > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to
> > > >
> > > > realize
> > > >
> > > > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as
> transplant
> > > > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation
> > > >
> > > > will
> > > >
> > > > increasingly limit options.Because of the larger rivers and
> increasing
> > > > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > > > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > > > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if
> warmer
> > > > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point,
> the
> > > > effects of sediment stress will increasingly dominate. In this
> > > >
> > > > scenario
> > > >
> > > > it
> > > >
> > > > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > > > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > > > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> > > >
> > > > increasing
> > > >
> > > > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear
> > > >
> > > > addition
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Denny
> > > >
> > > > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > > > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > > >
> > > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > > >
> > > > decade
> > > >
> > > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial
> > > >
> > > > levels
> > > >
> > > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022
> > > >
> > > > and
> > > >
> > > > 2026
> > > >
> > > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > > >
> > > > five
> > > >
> > > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years
> > > >
> > > > (2017-2021)
> > > >
> > > > is
> > > >
> > > > also 93%.
> > > >
> > > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms
> > > >
> > > > that
> > > >
> > > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral
> > > >
> > > > science
> > > >
> > > > community react?
> > > >
> > > > This paper (
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > >
> > > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > > >
> > > > migration
> > > >
> > > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be
> > > >
> > > > any
> > > >
> > > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach
> > > >
> > > > to
> > > >
> > > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> > > >
> > > > new
> > > >
> > > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> > > >
> > > > the
> > > >
> > > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very
> > > >
> > > > far
> > > >
> > > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> > > >
> > > > and
> > > >
> > > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Steve Mussman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > > > Oberlin OH 44074
> > > > (440) 935-4014
> > > >
> > > > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> > > > Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --
> > > > Nicole L. Crane
> > > > Faculty, Cabrillo College
> > > > Natural and Applied Sciences
> > > > www.cabrillo.edu
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> > > > One People One Reef
> > > > onepeopleonereef.org
> > > > _______________________________________________
> > > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
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> > > >
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