[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Nicole Crane]

Hello all,
I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I suppose
there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be telling
the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our conservation
efforts.

But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome? At
what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range expansion
is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and on
reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By working
authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by we
I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of it,
achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
(which does seem to be happening in some places).
So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty dire
backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless we
look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last part
we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
to do, but an imperative.
In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
Nicole

On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> STEVE:
>
> I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the moment, I
> will set aside the also important issues related to point-source pollution
> and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are not
> just as important.
>
> If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to realize
> that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation will
> increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this scenario it
> is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of increasing
> impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear addition
>
> Denny
>
> On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> >
> > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> decade
> > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial levels
> > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022 and
> 2026
> > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> five
> > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years (2017-2021)
> is
> > also 93%.
> >
> > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms that
> > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral science
> > community react?
> >
> > This paper (
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> migration
> > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be any
> > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach to
> > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That new
> > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of the
> > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very far
> > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet and
> > depend on it for our survival”.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Steve Mussman
> >
> >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> >
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>
>
>
> --
> Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> Oberlin OH 44074
> (440) 935-4014
>
> * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
>  Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
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> Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
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-- 
Nicole L. Crane
Faculty, Cabrillo College
Natural and Applied Sciences
www.cabrillo.edu


Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
One People One Reef
onepeopleonereef.org