[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

Sun Oct 30 21:00:25 UTC 2022

The window to avoid the worst climate change disasters is closing fast.

"Scientists warn that if the world is to have a chance of reaching net zero
carbon emissions by 2050 and so prevent the breaching of the 1.5C limit,
global emissions will have to be cut by 5% to 7% a year. At present,
emissions are rising between 1% and 2% a year with little sign of that
increase being halted."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/30/cop27-climate-summit-window-for-avoiding-catastrophe-is-closing-fast

Cheers, Doug

On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 5:27 AM Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Hello all,
> I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
> trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I suppose
> there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
> gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be telling
> the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our conservation
> efforts.
>
> But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
> In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
> would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome? At
> what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range expansion
> is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
> actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
> happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
> genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and on
> reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By working
> authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by we
> I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of it,
> achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
> buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
> (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty dire
> backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless we
> look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last part
> we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
> angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
> to do, but an imperative.
> In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> Nicole
>
> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > STEVE:
> >
> > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> moment, I
> > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> pollution
> > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
> not
> > just as important.
> >
> > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to realize
> > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation will
> > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this scenario
> it
> > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> increasing
> > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear addition
> >
> > Denny
> >
> > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > >
> > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > decade
> > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial levels
> > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022 and
> > 2026
> > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > five
> > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years (2017-2021)
> > is
> > > also 93%.
> > >
> > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms that
> > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral science
> > > community react?
> > >
> > > This paper (
> > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > migration
> > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be any
> > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach to
> > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> new
> > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> the
> > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very far
> > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> and
> > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Steve Mussman
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
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> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > Oberlin OH 44074
> > (440) 935-4014
> >
> > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> >  Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > _______________________________________________
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> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>
> --
> Nicole L. Crane
> Faculty, Cabrillo College
> Natural and Applied Sciences
> www.cabrillo.edu
>
>
> Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> One People One Reef
> onepeopleonereef.org
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