[Coral-List] (Coral-List) 1.5 C not plausible anymore

[Paul Muir]

Transplanting corals to the north (or south in S hemisphere) may also  have
very limited scope. It’s a huge assumption that each coral species is
latitudinally limited  by temperature and very little good data to support
that hypothesis when you dig down. Also very little good data to show
actual range extensions of corals: poor baselines, poor IDs, changing human
impacts etc all cloud the issue. There is some data to show that many
species are constrained by winter PAR rather than temperature (e.g. Muir et
al 2015, Science), although this is debated (Madin et al 2016, Frontiers of
Biogeog & Muir et al 2016 reply ). Bizarrely, there’s very little work been
done to test these various hypotheses- despite furious debate!! There’s
also very little data on which species are most at risk of extinction from
repeated bleaching events etc- again, furious debate informed by very
little data. Lots of work is currently going into high-tech magic bullets:
drones, AI, genetic engineering, climate engineering etc etc, while the
basic, unsexy science/ hypothesis testing, basic conservation biology seems
to be somewhat overlooked at present in the coral world?

Paul Muir

Refs
Muir et al 2015 https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1259911
Madin et al 2016
- Frontiers of Biogeography
<https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
 8(1)
response to Madin: Frontiers of Biogeography
<https://www.researchgate.net/journal/Frontiers-of-Biogeography-1948-6596>
8(4)



On Mon, 31 Oct 2022 at 2:24 am, Nicole Crane via Coral-List <
coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:

> Hello all,
> I haven’t weighed in for a bit so I will now. I absolutely agree that the
> trajectory is here, we are not likely to change it (99.9%?), and I suppose
> there is some possibility that it will be even worse….so on that somewhat
> gloomy but realistic backdrop (and I also agree that we need to be telling
> the truth to people and helping them understand) we place our conservation
> efforts.
>
> But I disagree that our only option is transplanting corals to the north.
> In fact I would encourage our community to think more broadly about what
> would motivate those efforts. Why? For whom? For what specific outcome? At
> what cost? At what gain? While transplanting or facilitated range expansion
> is one tool, I think there are many others (and I know this community is
> actively engaged in them!). There is good evidence of local adaptation
> happening on some reefs, lots of work on ‘facilitated adaptation’ through
> genetic rescue and investigation of ‘super corals’, both in the lab and on
> reefs. Finally, I do think that the human dimension is critical. By working
> authentically and collaboratively with local communities, we can, and by we
> I mean the global Collective not the western scientists driving most of it,
> achieve important advances. One might be better local management that can
> buy time for some corals to work through that local adaptation process
> (which does seem to be happening in some places).
> So I do think there are multiple approaches that can, despite a pretty dire
> backdrop, achieve important conservation goals that benefit diverse
> stakeholders impacted by this rapid, and potentially devastating (unless we
> look at this problem from all angles) trajectory. And to do that last part
> we need a diverse set of people to come up with solutions from those many
> angles. Here, diversity becomes not just a good idea, and the right thing
> to do, but an imperative.
> In solidarity towards working for a better planet, and coral reef
> persistence, over whatever timescale we are given.
> Nicole
>
> On Sun, Oct 30, 2022 at 6:07 AM Dennis Hubbard via Coral-List <
> coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
>
> > STEVE:
> >
> > I AGREE TOTALLY. So,,,,,, the question is how to proceed. For the
> moment, I
> > will set aside the also important issues related to point-source
> pollution
> > and other more-local factors.... not implying in any way that they are
> not
> > just as important.
> >
> > If the strategy is simply going to be "Go north young man" (i.e.,
> > transplanting colonies further to the north where temperatures are more
> > akin to what existed in Florida in decades past), then we have to realize
> > that this is a severely limited approach. At some point, as transplant
> > sites move closer to the southern Appalachians, higher sedimentation will
> > increasingly limit  options.Because of the larger rivers and increasing
> > tidal range as we move into the southern extremities of the "Georgia
> > Embayment" (i.e., the coast from the Outer Banks to central Florida),
> > fluvial input is going to increase significantly - especially if warmer
> > climate translates into higher rainfall and runoff. At that point, the
> > effects of sediment stress will increasingly  dominate. In this scenario
> it
> > is almost certain that the combined effects of temperature and
> > sedimentation will negatively impact coral viability by much more is
> > implied by simple addition of the two. Nature has a nasty way of
> increasing
> > impacts by exponential multiplication rather than simple linear addition
> >
> > Denny
> >
> > On Sat, Oct 29, 2022 at 10:23 AM Steve via Coral-List <
> > coral-list at coral.aoml.noaa.gov> wrote:
> >
> > >
> > >
> > > Just a couple of observations related to this important discussion.
> > >
> > > We are not at 1.5C yet, but it is likely we will get there within a
> > decade
> > > (or so). According to the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) the
> > > annual mean global near-surface temperature between 2022 and 2026 is
> > > predicted to be between 1.1C and 1.7C higher than preindustrial levels
> > > (1850-1900 averages). The chance of at least one year between 2022 and
> > 2026
> > > exceeding the warmest year on record, 2016, is 93%. The chance of the
> > five
> > > year mean (2022-2026) being higher than the last five years (2017-2021)
> > is
> > > also 93%.
> > >
> > > So, we are clearly on a trajectory to take us to 1.5C and beyond.
> > > Considering the fact that virtually every study I’ve read confirms that
> > > 1.5C will be catastrophic for coral reefs, how should the coral science
> > > community react?
> > >
> > > This paper (
> > >
> >
> https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000004)
> > > suggests that focusing on temperature adaptation and facilitating
> > migration
> > > is the only logical way forward, but beyond that, how can there be any
> > > debate on Peter’s main point? “ . . . it is time for a new approach to
> > > communicating what we know of the likely future of this planet - That
> new
> > > approach is called telling the whole truth, rather than just parts of
> the
> > > truth, or sugar-coated parts of the truth. . . we will not get very far
> > > until we recognize that we and all other creatures share this planet
> and
> > > depend on it for our survival”.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Steve Mussman
> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://theconversation.com/most-americans-do-trust-scientists-and-science-based-policy-making-freaking-out-about-the-minority-who-dont-isnt-helpful-193085
> > >
> > >
> >
> https://www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/12411/strategic-science-communication
> > >
> > > _______________________________________________
> > > Coral-List mailing list
> > > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > Dennis Hubbard - Emeritus Professor: Dept of Geology-Oberlin College
> > Oberlin OH 44074
> > (440) 935-4014
> >
> > * "When you get on the wrong train.... every stop is the wrong stop"*
> >  Benjamin Stein: "*Ludes, A Ballad of the Drug and the Dream*"
> > _______________________________________________
> > Coral-List mailing list
> > Coral-List at coral.aoml.noaa.gov
> > https://coral.aoml.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/coral-list
>
> --
> Nicole L. Crane
> Faculty, Cabrillo College
> Natural and Applied Sciences
> www.cabrillo.edu
>
>
> Senior Conservation Scientist, Project co-lead
> One People One Reef
> onepeopleonereef.org
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